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Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

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Others are panicking but I am greedy. Can I buy BTC at the bottom?

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

1. The German government liquidates a large amount of Bitcoin

على الفصلبالنيابةn data shows that the German government recently transferred more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp, a move that has exacerbated market volatility. Critics believe that such a large-scale government sell-off could have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the crypto market. These Bitcoins originated from an investigation into the illegal website Movie 2 k.to, when approximately 50,000 Bitcoins were seized.

2. Panic has not occurred yet, but irrational emotions are likely to spread

Although the market implied volatility is currently at a low level, it has been on an upward trend in recent years. This shows that market sentiment is beginning to become more unstable. Although panic has not yet occurred, irrational emotions are likely to spread.

3. The opportunity to buy at the bottom comes after the real panic occurs

When there is a real panic in the market, prجليدs tend to fall significantly below the intrinsic value of the asset. This is the best time for bargain hunters to exit, as they can buy high-value assets at very attractive prices. Investors should remain calm and wait for further تطويرs in the market to seize the real bargain hunting opportunities.

Specific reference to several time nodes of Bitcoin:

March 2020 -33%, implied volatility 190

Bitcoin Performance: In March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $4,000. The crash became known as “Black Thursday,” as Bitcoin plunged more than 50% from a high of around $9,000 in just a few days.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic in the market, the plunge also provided an excellent opportunity for bottom-pickers. As governments and central banks around the world launched massive economic stimulus plans, Bitcoin rebounded rapidly in the following months, recovering and breaking through the all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year.

May 2021 -45%, implied volatility 160

Bitcoin Performance: In May 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $30,000. The plunge was about half of Bitcoin’s value from its all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic selling in the market, bottom-pickers and long-term investors quickly stepped in, believing that the long-term prospects of Bitcoin remained optimistic. Subsequently, the price of Bitcoin gradually recovered and broke through the $60,000 level again by the end of 2021.

June and November 2022 -22%, implied volatility 110

Bitcoin Performance: In November 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of approximately $16,000. The plunge reflected a significant blow to market confidence in the crypto industry, especially a crisis of confidence in some major trading platforms.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite this, some investors believe that this is a great entry point for long-term holding of Bitcoin. As the market gradually digested the negative news, the price of Bitcoin stabilized in the following months and showed some signs of rebound.

July 2024 -8%, implied volatility rises to 57.5, bottom-fishing still needs to wait

Although the current market implied volatility has increased, it has not yet reached a real panic level. Investors should pay close attention to market trends and wait for more obvious panic signals to appear before buying at the bottom.

لخص

The plunges and subsequent bottoms at the above time points provide valuable lessons for investors. Short-term market fluctuations should not affect the assessment of the long-term value of Bitcoin. After waiting for panic selling to occur, calm investors can often find undervalued assets and get rich returns when the market recovers.

There are about 24 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

التحليل الفني لبيئة السوق والمشاعر

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

مكونات تحليل المشاعر

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

المؤشرات الفنية

اتجاه السعر

BTC price fell -7.55% and ETH price fell -11.32% in the past week.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

الصورة أعلاه هي الرسم البياني لسعر BTC في الأسبوع الماضي.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

الصورة أعلاه هي الرسم البياني لسعر ETH في الأسبوع الماضي.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

ويبين الجدول معدل تغير الأسعار خلال الأسبوع الماضي.

مخطط توزيع حجم السعر (الدعم والمقاومة)

Over the past week, BTC and ETH continued to fall after breaking down from the dense trading area at 7.04.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

توضح الصورة أعلاه توزيع مناطق التداول الكثيفة لـ BTC في الأسبوع الماضي.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

توضح الصورة أعلاه توزيع مناطق التداول الكثيفة لـ ETH في الأسبوع الماضي.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

يوضح الجدول نطاق التداول الأسبوعي المكثف لـ BTC و ETH في الأسبوع الماضي.

الحجم والفائدة المفتوحة

Over the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on July 4; open interest for both BTC and ETH continued to rise.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

يظهر الجزء العلوي من الصورة أعلاه اتجاه سعر BTC، ويظهر الوسط حجم التداول، ويظهر الجزء السفلي الفائدة المفتوحة، والأزرق الفاتح هو متوسط يوم واحد، والبرتقالي هو متوسط 7 أيام. يمثل لون خط K الحالة الحالية، والأخضر يعني أن ارتفاع السعر مدعوم من حجم التداول، والأحمر يعني إغلاق المراكز، والأصفر يعني تراكم المراكز ببطء، والأسود يعني حالة الازدحام.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

يُظهر الجزء العلوي من الصورة أعلاه اتجاه سعر ETH، والوسط هو حجم التداول، والأسفل هو الفائدة المفتوحة، والأزرق الفاتح هو متوسط يوم واحد، والبرتقالي هو متوسط 7 أيام. يمثل لون الخط K الحالة الحالية، والأخضر يعني أن ارتفاع الأسعار مدعوم بحجم التداول، والأحمر يعني إغلاق المراكز، والأصفر يتراكم المراكز ببطء، والأسود مزدحم.

التقلبات التاريخية مقابل التقلبات الضمنية

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it fell to 7.4; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose simultaneously.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

الخط الأصفر هو التقلب التاريخي، والخط الأزرق هو التقلب الضمني، والنقطة الحمراء هي متوسطه على مدى 7 أيام.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

الحدث مدفوعة

No data was released in the past week.

مؤشرات المشاعر

معنويات الزخم

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

الصورة أعلاه توضح اتجاه الأصول المختلفة في الأسبوع الماضي.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

معدل الإقراض _ معنويات الإقراض

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 11.4%, and short-term interest rates remained at 12.8%.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

الخط الأصفر هو أعلى سعر لسعر الفائدة بالدولار الأمريكي، والخط الأزرق هو 75% من أعلى سعر، والخط الأحمر هو متوسط 7 أيام من 75% من أعلى سعر.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

يوضح الجدول متوسط عوائد أسعار الفائدة بالدولار الأمريكي لأيام الاحتفاظ المختلفة في الماضي

معدل التمويل_معنويات الرافعة المالية للعقد

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 10.9%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

الخط الأزرق هو معدل تمويل BTC على Binance، والخط الأحمر هو متوسطه على مدار 7 أيام

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

يوضح الجدول متوسط عائد رسوم BTC لأيام الاحتفاظ المختلفة في الماضي.

ارتباط السوق_الإجماع الشعور

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week dropped to around 0.73, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

اتساع السوق_المعنويات العامة

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 3.9% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 2.3% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 2.3% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

The above picture shows [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

لخص

Over the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued to fall, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level during the decline on July 4. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also increased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the overall market has maintained a weak trend over the past week.

Twitter: @ https://x.com/CTA_ChannelCmt

موقع إلكتروني: channelcmt.com

This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom of BTC?

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