Matrixport Market Observation: BTC’s new ATH has arrived. Can it break through $125,000 before the end of the year?
Over the past week, the price of BTC has shown an upward trend. On December 10, the price of BTC hit a low of $94,256 and then steadily rose and stabilized above 100,000. On the 16th and 17th, it broke through $105,000 and $107,000 respectively, reaching a high of $107,793.07 ATH, with the largest increase of 14.36% during the week. As of the time of publication of this article, the price of BTC has stabilized around $107,000, up about 5.6% from the end of last Friday. Affected by BTC, ETH also rose to $4,107.8 on December 16, the highest price recorded since December 2021, slightly higher than the peaks in March and early December this year. (The above data comes from Binance spot, December 17 at 16:30).
The market believes that multiple bullish factors such as Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency appointments and continued interest rate cuts will accelerate BTC’s rise, and by the end of 2025, the BTC price may reach $125,000.
Market Interpretation
The three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed trends, and the market remained bullish
As of the close of December 16, the three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed trends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 110 points, falling for eight consecutive days, setting the longest losing streak since April this year; the Nasdaq rose 1% to a new high, and the SP 500 rose 0.4%. In terms of individual stocks, Broadcom rose more than 11% after soaring more than 20% last Friday and breaking the trillion-dollar mark in market value. On the contrary, Nvidia fell 1.7% against the market trend.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the SP index may continue its current bull market trend, driven by an optimistic economic outlook and expectations of Trumps deregulation policies. By 2025, the SP index is expected to rise by 7% to 6,500 points.
MicroStrategy is included in the Nasdaq 100, and BTC attention continues to increase
On December 14, the Nasdaq 100 Index announced the results of its annual component adjustments, and MicroStrategy will be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index on December 23.
Since the beginning of this year, MicroStrategys stock price has soared more than six times, with a market value of nearly $94 billion. With MicroStrategys official inclusion in the index, its stock price may be further pushed up. MicroStrategy continues to increase its holdings of BTC by issuing bonds or stocks, which not only further consolidates its position advantage, increases BTCs market exposure, but also attracts more investors attention.
BTC spot ETF joins hands with ETH spot ETF, with capital inflow reaching a record high
Crypto funds continue to be favored by institutional investors, with inflows hitting record highs. According to CoinShares data, global cryptocurrency funds have continued to record net inflows in the past four weeks, totaling $3.2 billion. This positive trend brings the total inflows so far this year to $44.5 billion, more than four times the amount in any previous year.
Among them, the BTC ETF listed in the United States performed particularly well. In the past week, the BTC ETF attracted $2.17 billion in net inflows, and the total inflow has exceeded $5.3 billion since its launch in January this year. At the same time, the ETH ETF also recorded seven consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling $1 billion. The markets optimism about ETH continues to heat up, driving the continued inflow of funds.
US core inflation annual rate released, in line with expectations
On December 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that the annual rate of core CPI inflation in the United States was 3.3%, rising for the second consecutive month. It rose from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November, in line with market expectations. The increase was partly due to the low base last year.
On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3%, the largest increase since April, slightly higher than 0.2% in October, which was also in line with expectations. The housing index rose 0.3%, accounting for nearly 40% of the increase. The core CPI rose 0.3%, the same as in October, in line with expectations.
Market Hotspots
Trump plans to use the US Treasury’s $200 billion foreign exchange stabilization fund to build BTC reserves
On December 17, Cryptoslate reported that Trump plans to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) through an executive order, and plans to use the Treasurys Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase BTC. The ESF is usually used to respond to financial crises, and its total assets will exceed $200 billion as of October 2024. If implemented, the plan will put the United States in a leading position in the global BTC reserve competition.
At the same time, several states in the United States have begun to promote BTC reserve legislation, including Pennsylvania and Texas. In addition, countries such as Brazil, Poland, and Japan are also discussing proposals to establish national BTC reserves.
Trump DeFi project WLFI buys $45 million in tokens, showing pro-crypto attitude
Trumps DeFi project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) purchased a large amount of crypto assets in December, with cumulative expenditures approaching $45 million, including ETH, cbBTC, LINK, AAVE, ENA and the latest ONDO.
Launched in September, WLFI bills itself as a DeFi platform for cryptocurrency trading and lists President-elect Trump as “chief crypto advocate” and Trump’s sons Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump and Barron Trump as “ambassadors.” Companies associated with the family are entitled to 75% of net income.
Institutions and companies are more interested in investing in BTC. Metaplanet announced the issuance of 4.5 billion yen bonds to purchase Bitcoin.
On December 17, Metaplanet Inc., a Japanese listed company, announced the issuance of the fourth series of ordinary bonds with a total amount of 4.5 billion yen (about $30 million). The funds raised will be used to accelerate the purchase of BTC. The annual interest rate of the bonds is zero and is expected to mature on June 16, 2025. The redemption funds of the bonds will be paid mainly through the exercise proceeds of previously issued warrants. In addition, Metaplanet plans to further expand its capital operation capabilities through multiple issuances in the future, totaling up to 5 billion yen in private placement bonds.
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