Witness history: Bitcoin breaks $100,000 for the first time, where is the next stop?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Asher ( @Asher_0210 )

At around 10:30 on December 5, according to OKX market data , the BTC price once surged to more than $100,000, with a 24 -hour increase of nearly 5%, which also means that Bitcoin lived up to expectations and broke through the $100,000 mark for the first time.

At the same time, Ethereum broke through 3,800 USDT, with a 24 -hour increase of 5.35%; SOL broke through 230 USDT, and the 24 -hour decline narrowed to 2%.

The total market value of cryptocurrencies has risen sharply. According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has risen to 3.778 trillion US dollars.

In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has a liquidation of US$545 million. Although long orders account for more than half of the liquidation, the scale of short orders is also as high as US$222 million. In terms of currencies, BTC liquidated US$111 million and ETH liquidated US$74.2037 million.

Long-term narrative: Institutions continue to buy BTC, 100,000 is just the beginning

At present, traditional institutions have extremely strong demand for BTC. Lin Chen, head of Asia Pacific business at Deribit, said in a post on X that the trading volume of BTC ecosystem stocks reached 50 billion US dollars on November 21, which has exceeded the entire UK stock market. The trading volume of MSTR alone has reached 32 billion US dollars, and the trading volume of the other two MSTR leveraged ETFs has reached 6 billion US dollars.

In the third week of November alone, four public companies added billions of dollars of collective debt to their balance sheets to buy Bitcoin, namely MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings, Semler Scientific, and MetaPlanet. In addition, MicroStrategy has sold more than $6 billion in convertible notes to buy Bitcoin this year, and hedge funds buy them for arbitrage bets. Since October 31 alone, MicroStrategy has purchased approximately $13.5 billion in Bitcoin and issued $3 billion in zero-interest convertible notes, the companys fifth bond issuance this year.

Earlier, Hoth Therapeutics, a US listed company, announced that the companys board of directors approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin. Hoth CEO Robb Knie said: As Bitcoin continues to grow and gradually become a major asset class, attracting the attention and recognition of investors, we believe that Bitcoin will become a strong fiscal reserve asset. With the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing activity of institutional investors, Bitcoin will become a powerful supplement to fiscal strategies. We believe that Bitcoins anti-inflation properties may make it a reliable asset with value storage functions. LQR House Inc., a US listed company, recently announced that its board of directors has approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy. In addition, the company will now accept cryptocurrency payments on CWSpirits.com, giving customers the flexibility to use digital currencies to purchase alcoholic beverages.

As traditional institutions continue to increase their purchases of BTC, many celebrities are confident about its future development prospects.

Putin: No one can ban Bitcoin, everyone is working to reduce costs and increase reliability

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Russia Calling investment forum, Who can ban Bitcoin? No one. Who can ban the use of other electronic payment methods? No one. Because these are new technologies. Whatever the future of the dollar, these tools will develop in one way or another, because everyone is working to reduce costs and increase reliability.

Crypto trader Cobie: It is more reasonable for Bitcoins market value to reach 5 to 10 times that of gold. It has become an interstellar digital gold that is more scarce than gold.

Cryptocurrency trader Jordan Fish (alias Cobie) posted on the X platform: Bitcoin flipping gold is just a reminder to return to rational reality. The multiple it flips is a more interesting question. Perhaps 5 to 10 times is the fair valuation that is approaching in this process.

Furthermore, it added: “To be honest, while gold will also face serious competition from competing assets of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is basically interstellar digital gold, so as humans become a multi-planetary species, as the writing on the wall predicts, mineral rocks on Earth, gold investors may choose more superior assets. Many other gold cases: maybe some future intelligence can make gold, or maybe future humans who conquer the stars will be able to go into space to mine infinite gold. In contrast, it seems unlikely that we will find any Bitcoin in space.”

CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin bull market is starting, current data is similar to 2020

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X that the Bitcoin bull market is starting, and the current data is similar to the market performance in 2020. In the past few months, on-chain data showed that whales continued to accumulate Bitcoin. At that time, many people were skeptical about this data, but now the reasons for this accumulation seem to have become quite clear.

It further analyzed that after the halving, the mining cost doubled, and the price needed to rise to maintain the profitability of miners. In addition, many traders shorted Bitcoin, which may promote the bull market through short squeeze. According to the performance of previous halving cycles, the Bitcoin bull market usually starts in the fourth quarter.

Satoshi Act Fund co-founder: 10 US states plan to introduce strategic bitcoin reserve legislation

Satoshi Act Fund co-founder Dennis Porter says multiple U.S. states are preparing to propose sovereign Bitcoin reserve legislation. Porter is lobbying local policymakers to introduce BTC reserve legislation in 10 state jurisdictions and disclosed the development on X, highlighting the Satoshi Act Fund’s efforts to pass Bitcoin-focused laws.

He said: I can now officially confirm and announce that 10 states in the United States will introduce strategic bitcoin reserves legislation. We will win with Bitcoin and lead the world. Porter added that there is a long way to go to pass laws in 10 states.

Deribit CEO: Options market bets BTC has more room to rebound, derivatives traders are overwhelmingly bullish

Luuk Strijers, CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit, noted that based on options market data, cryptocurrency derivatives traders look overwhelmingly bullish and are betting that Bitcoin has more room to rebound.

Short-term possibility: After a sharp rise, beware of pullbacks

As BTC breaks through the important mark of $100,000, although most investors may not want to face this problem, they still need to be vigilant about the potential risk of a pullback in the excitement. Overall, there are three main factors for the current market to pull back.

Reason for callback 1: Fear and greed index remains high

The first factor is that public sentiment is currently frenzied, with the fear and greed index remaining high.

Alternative data shows that todays Fear and Greed Index is 84, and the level is still Extreme Greed, and the level last week was also Extreme Greed. As the saying goes, Buy when no one cares, sell when everyone is talking. Judging from the current sentiment data, although it is impossible to determine where the short-term BTC top is, there is a risk of a callback at any time.

The panic index threshold is 0-100, including indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media heat (15%) + market research (15%) + Bitcoins proportion in the entire market (10%) + Google hot word analysis (10%)

Reason for callback 2: There is a window period for the implementation of encryption policy

The second factor is that there is a window period for Trump’s policies to be implemented, and the increase in uncertainty will cause institutions to take profits and exit.

Since Trump will take office on January 20 next year, about one and a half months from now, and crypto-related policies are not a priority after Trump officially takes office. Although investment bank TD Cowen believes that the regulatory environment will change as expected, it also emphasizes that Trumps team is focused on extending tax cuts and resolving tariffs and trade issues, and cryptocurrency will not be its top priority, so the intensity and timing of policy implementation remain to be discussed. In addition, analysts believe that Trump was once a skeptic of cryptocurrency, but he changed his position after digital asset companies invested heavily to promote their interests during the campaign, and now there are still questions about the feasibility and implementation timeline of his promise.

In summary, there is still a window of nearly two months before Trump officially takes office. If a large number of funds choose to take profits and leave the market when BTC breaks through $100,000, avoid risks, and wait for Trumps attitude towards the crypto industry to make a decision as soon as he takes office, it will be a bad factor for the short-term BTC price, or a large correction may occur.

Reason for callback 3: continued rise in leverage ratio

The third factor is the continued increase in the current market leverage ratio, which has objectively laid the groundwork for large fluctuations in the market.

Coinglass data shows that the total open interest of Bitcoin futures contracts on the entire network has reached 626,100 BTC (approximately US$63 billion), continuously breaking historical highs; the nominal value of the total open interest of BTC options on the entire network is US$36.8 billion, approaching the historical high.

Looking back at past trends, leverage is both a catalyst for bull markets and a trigger for extreme market conditions. Although market predictions should not be sketching the boat to find the sword, risk management is always a key that cannot be ignored.

This article is sourced from the internet: Witness history: Bitcoin breaks $100,000 for the first time, where is the next stop?

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