The US election marks a fork in the fate of the crypto industry

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Regardless of the outcome of next weeks presidential election, the SEC is likely to have a new chairman. Traditionally, the SEC chairman usually resigns when a new president takes office. Therefore, whether Harris or Trump wins, the SECs leadership may face major changes.

According to Unchained, Harris campaign supporters are pushing her to replace current chairman Gary Gensler and have begun reviewing candidates. If the Harris administration comes to power, it may adopt a more crypto-friendly policy than the Biden administration to improve the regulatory environment. However, she remains cautious on key issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody, and is not as pro-crypto as Trump.

On the other hand, Trump promised at the Bitcoin Conference that if elected, he would fire Gensler on his first day in office. Although he cannot legally fire Gensler directly, he does have the power to immediately demote him to a commissioner, a stance that has the crypto industry looking forward to Trumps regulatory policies.

A Review of Trump鈥檚 Pro-Crypto Policies

The Republican Party has always emphasized individual freedom, and its values are more consistent with the principle of cryptocurrency decentralization. The Republican National Committee promised in its party platform that Trump would defend the right to mine Bitcoin and ensure that every American has the right to self-custody digital assets and can trade freely without government surveillance. In contrast, the Democratic Party generally advocates strengthening government power and regulation, which may cause ideological friction with the cryptocurrency community.

Trump has shown a strong interest in the digital asset industry, claiming that his goal is to make the United States a global crypto hub and Bitcoin superpower. He supports Bitcoin mining and promises to protect self-custody rights. In addition, during the campaign, Trump used Bitcoin to buy burgers for restaurant customers and criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its tough stance on cryptocurrencies, vowing to appoint a pro-crypto chairman if re-elected. Trump even launched his own DeFi project, World Liberty Financial.

Trump has proposed a series of crypto policies, including:

Building a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Trump stated that the government will retain all Bitcoin currently held or acquired by the U.S. Government as the core of the Strategic National Bitcoin Reserve. As of October 2023, the U.S. government holds over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin, mostly confiscated through criminal investigations. However, it is unclear how these Bitcoin reserves will be utilized, how feasible they are, and whether the crypto industry will widely accept this move.

Establishing a Presidential Advisory Council on Cryptocurrency

In Nashville, Trump promised to set up a Presidential Advisory Commission on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency, saying the commission would be run by industry supporters rather than crypto skeptics to write rules.

Banning the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency

While many countries are moving forward with central bank digital currencies, the trend has met resistance in the U.S. cryptocurrency community. While the Federal Reserve has not yet decided whether to issue a digital dollar, a report it released in January 2022 detailed the possible costs and benefits of a CBDC.

Trump has publicly opposed the proposal several times, calling it a dangerous threat to freedom. In May 2024, the House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing CBDCs, although the bill still needs to be further advanced before it can become law. It is important to note that while Trump supports cryptocurrencies, his tariff policies may cause economic uncertainty. The long-term impact of his policies on the market and the crypto industry remains to be seen.

Crypto Mom Hester Peirce may not serve as SEC Chairman

Since Gensler is likely to step down, the industry is also looking forward to a new crypto chairman taking office. Currently, the most popular candidate is Hester Peirce, a member of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, who is also nicknamed Crypto Mother in the industry.

The US election marks a fork in the fate of the crypto industry

Hester Peirce, who has publicly criticized Gensler鈥檚 approach to regulating the industry through litigation rather than rulemaking, also appears on the surface to be a likely pick if Trump wins the White House because she has been the most vocal Republican on the commission under Gensler鈥檚 leadership and the president typically nominates chairmen from his own party.

When asked in an interview what his top priority would be if he became SEC chairman, Peirce responded by saying ensuring the vitality of the industry, allowing investors to make their own decisions, and ensuring that we dont create unnecessary obstacles in rulemaking.

But according to Unchained, four sources who are close to Peirce or communicate with her frequently revealed that Peirce does not want to serve as SEC chairman and plans to leave the commission after her term ends in June 2025. A spokesperson for Peirces office said, The only thing Commissioner Peirce is considering doing after leaving office is becoming a beekeeper, but even so, she is a little hesitant.

Sources agree Peirce has been making clear for at least several months that she wants to leave the SEC, with one source saying he heard about her desire to leave a year ago.

Will Harris continue the Biden administration鈥檚 crypto regulatory pressure?

During the Biden administration, the regulation of cryptocurrencies has been significantly strengthened. The SEC has filed charges against a number of crypto asset exchanges during this period. In response to the rapid development of the crypto market, Biden signed an important executive order on digital assets, instructing government agencies to strike a balance between regulation and development.

The executive order aims to ensure that digital assets find a balance between innovation and security to promote the healthy development of the crypto market while reducing its potential systemic risks. Under these measures, the crypto industry faces higher compliance pressure, especially in ensuring market transparency and investor protection.

In addition to direct supervision, the SEC has also implemented stricter information disclosure requirements under the Biden administration, especially in the field of environment, society and governance (ESG). The new regulations require listed companies to provide more information about their operating models and potential risks in response to investors concerns about corporate social responsibility and risk management. This move not only affects traditional companies, but also indirectly affects companies involved in crypto assets, requiring them to disclose more operating details to the public.

Harris has limited her comments on cryptocurrency policy, saying only that her government will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors. Recently, in response to lower-than-expected approval ratings among black people, she has proposed a series of economic security plans, including a commitment to establish a cryptocurrency regulatory framework designed to protect black male crypto investments.

But the framework, which only targets black voters and lacks clear regulatory details or specific policy positions, has been criticized by the cryptocurrency community as hypocritical, believing that it is just a way to use cryptocurrency to win votes. The current Biden-Harris administration has taken a more confrontational regulatory approach to the crypto industry, taking actions such as multiple lawsuits, restricting traditional banking services, and vetoing bipartisan legislation.

Harriss guests are not friendly

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, published an analysis that there is evidence that Harris and her advisory team will continue the Biden administrations attitude towards cryptocurrencies. New evidence shows that Harris will continue to suppress cryptocurrencies, and her choice of advisors indicates that she will continue Bidens hostility to cryptocurrencies, as Harris is working with two key officials in the Biden administration who oppose cryptocurrencies, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti.

To confirm his analysis, Alex Thorn detailed the key evidence of Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurtis opposition to cryptocurrency. He pointed out that Brian Deese wrote an article as early as January 2023, which was euphemistically called fraud and dangerous for cryptocurrency. As for Bharat Ramamurti, he has long worked with Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic congressman in the United States, a crypto villain, and provided Warren with economic policy advice.

On the other hand, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti also intervened in the US Stablecoin Act, advocating that the US Federal Reserve and banks should fully regulate stablecoins. In short, a series of evidence shows that Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti are not friendly to cryptocurrencies, and Harriss choice of them to join her advisory team may indicate that if she wins the election, she may disappoint people in the cryptocurrency circle.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuba also believes that Harris team tends to oppose the enforcement and regulation model and hopes to promote the development of the crypto market through a clear regulatory framework. Cuban pointed out that Harris prefers clear regulations rather than litigation, which allows companies to avoid moving overseas to develop applications.

Other industry observers believe that even if Harris replaces Gensler, the enforcement of laws in the cryptocurrency market will not be weakened. Analysts from the well-known analysis firm Bernstein predict that if Harris wins, the price of Bitcoin may fall significantly by the end of the year, and may even fall by 10%.

Note: This article is a summary of previous articles published by BlockBeats

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