The charge ended below the previous high. How do traders view the future of BTC?

BTCs October monthly line was officially closed at 8:00 this morning. October lived up to its reputation as an uptober. After breaking below 60,000 again in early October, it continued to rise. This time we saw a sustained upward trend.

On October 30, the night of BTC鈥檚 upward charge, when the market was pinning its hopes on reaching its previous high, BTC ended its charge at just $130 below its previous high. After two days of narrow fluctuations at high levels, as the PCE data came out, the market鈥檚 expectations for Trump鈥檚 successful presidential campaign declined. BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold fell in unison, and Trump Media Company even hit the limit down circuit breaker.

Many investment bank analysts pointed out that BTCs effective breakthrough and stabilization of $69,000 is proof of getting rid of the 8-month oscillation cycle and the beginning of a new round of trend. Can this view be applied now? See how traders make decisions.

Technical Analysis

@WorldOfCharts 1

As I said, Bitcoin can test 60-70k (retest) before another bullish rally, expect a successful retest and a successful retest can lead another bullish wave towards 80k

@YSI_crypto

The reference period is 4 hours. The price has temporarily stopped falling after falling to the 68950 area, but the next K column has not yet appeared in the 68950 support area for green K closing confirmation. If this support is broken, the price will directly look down to the 66150 and 65170 areas.

@laban_li believes that this is the resonance after the deep sea super crab is completed. This wave of decline is relatively rapid, and the downward trend has not stopped. It is more dangerous to enter the market on the left side. You can try with a loss, but it is still recommended to enter the market on the right side for a more stable

The previous prediction of 75k was made 2 months ago. The top of this wave of 73500 is actually not that far away, and it is very likely to be a small top in the near future.

Data Analysis

@CryptoPainter_X

All exchanges are selling. The supply in the spot market is relatively firm and obvious. However, in the futures market, CME is selling all the time. The supply of Binance and OKX has obviously shrunk after the US stock market closed, and a small amount of buying power for bargain hunting has begun to appear.

@wower_X

The main force of option traders entered the market again and continued to be bullish. At 10 am, 1,000 positions of 85,000 expiring in March next year appeared to be bought, spending a premium of about 98 BTC, 7.1 million US dollars

The price of 85,000 started from 61,000 in early October. There were three consecutive large-scale bullish purchases by major players, with a cumulative premium of nearly 15 million US dollars and 2,000 positions.

@0x CPT_Capital

Based on the analysis from the perspective of the order book, it is believed that buying has appeared here and the correction is basically over.

@Murphychen 888

Analyzing from on-chain data

STH, short time holder BTC short-term holder

LTH, long time holder BTC long-term holder

On October 29, STH sold 23.2w pieces and LTH sold 1.5w pieces;

On October 30, STH sold 25.1w pieces and LTH sold 1.8w pieces;

On October 31, STH sold 20.7w pieces and LTH sold 1.1w pieces;

It can be seen that:

1. The main selling pressure from October 28 to October 30 came from short-term profit-taking chips, and the main selling pressure on October 31 came from short-term locked-in chips;

2. The distribution process was accelerated on the 29th and 30th, including LTH and STH. On the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken.

3. Continue to observe the data in the next few days to see whether the data continues to slow down or accelerate, which can be used as one of the bases for short-term judgment.

4. The current average cost of STH is around 64,000. As long as this position is not broken, we believe that the trend remains unchanged.

Macro analysis

@Maoshu_CN

Geopolitical aspects:

The focus of international geopolitical issues is still Israel and Iran. Netanyahu has revised his sons wedding, and Iranian leader Khamenei has inspected the border. Both sides are preparing for an opportunity. This is a point that needs attention. Of course, I personally expect that there will be no possibility of an attack before the US election day.

On the Russian-Ukrainian side, the United States publicly stated that since North Korea has sent troops into the battlefield, it is very likely that soldiers from third countries will support Ukraine and participate in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is a manifestation of the United States putting pressure on Russia.

On the South Korean side, North Korea test-fired an intercontinental missile into the East Sea, causing tension in the region. The United States issued a statement publicly condemning the test without notifying the country in advance.

Russia and Ukraine are normalized issues, North Korea and South Korea are provocative events, and Israel and Iran are the surprises that the risk market should be most worried about at present. Although many people are optimistic that Trump can solve these problems, the election has not yet taken place. Even if it does, Trump will still have to wait until January next year to hand over power.

Stablecoins:

The market value of on-exchange stablecoins increased by 300 million, reaching 177.3 billion. Some of this was due to inflows of funds, and some was due to retention of on-exchange funds after leaving the market.

USDT: Official data shows 120.573 billion, an increase of 0.69 billion compared with yesterday, with a small inflow of funds;

USDC: The data website shows that the market value increased by 2.05, accompanied by a decrease in trading volume, which means there is a possibility of capital inflow.

BTC has experienced a decline in volume after the rise in the past two days, the selling pressure has decreased, and the price has stabilized. This will lead to further breakthroughs in prices, which is a good thing.

Although many people are shouting that the copycat season is coming, judging from the trading activity, both buyers and sellers are still active, the volume shrinkage is small, and the sentiment is still not optimistic enough.

The optimistic launch of the altcoin also requires BTC to stabilize after reaching a new historical high.

This article is sourced from the internet: The charge ended below the previous high. How do traders view the future of BTC?

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