Matrixport Market Observation: Macroeconomic factors are favorable for risk assets, BTC continues to consolidate and wai

The technical bullishness of the U.S. stock market may lead to further gains, and the A-share market has risen rapidly under policy stimulus. Against the backdrop of multiple macro factors that are favorable to risky assets, the crypto market has performed poorly, and has even fallen across the board recently. The performance at the start of October was the worst since 2019.

On October 3, affected by geopolitics, the price of BTC fell below $60,000 to $59,828, down 5.8% from the opening price on October 1. Fortunately, the support level of BTC $60,000 is relatively strong. After a brief decline, BTC returned to above $60,000 and reached a high of $64,478 on October 7. The current price fluctuates around $62,000. Limited by the current strong breakthrough resistance of BTC, BTC will continue to consolidate in the range for a period of time, waiting for the release of catalytic positive factors (the above data comes from Binance spot, October 8, 15: 00).

It is worth noting that the price lows of BTC after the recent decline are higher than the previous ones. The value trend is in line with the strong expectations for Q4. It is not ruled out that BTC still has the opportunity to set a new high before the end of the year.

Market Analysis

US September non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, significantly boosting US stock market sentiment

Last Friday, the US non-farm payrolls data was released, with strong data for September, with 254,000 new jobs added (expected to be 150,000), and the unemployment rate falling to 4.05%. The data significantly boosted US stock prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar against fiat currencies last Friday, and crypto assets also rose rapidly, outperforming the impact of the US dollar and US interest rates.

On Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials are in no rush to cut rates. Market sentiment is that the September jobs report could close the door on another 50bp rate cut by the Fed next month and keep officials on track for another 25bp cut.

The siphon effect of A-shares is beginning to emerge, and funds are flowing out of the crypto market

China has launched an economic stimulus package of more than 7.5 trillion yuan, and A-shares have rebounded strongly under policy stimulus. Since September 24, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by more than 20%, hitting a new high since May 2023. On October 5, Goldman Sachs upgraded its A-share rating to overweight, which triggered a lot of discussion. Funds at home and abroad are paying close attention to the A-share market.

As the popularity of A-shares continues to rise, funds in the crypto market may continue to flow out for a while, and the resistance to BTCs rise may increase.

Geopolitical influences escalate, and crypto asset prices are under significant pressure

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. After Irans missile attack on Israel, Israel vowed to retaliate. Under the premise of uncertainty whether the current situation will ease, the tense geopolitical situation has put pressure on crypto asset prices. The safe-haven properties of crypto assets have weakened in the current environment, and the correlation with US stocks has increased.

Hot Spots

Polymarket US election prediction: Trump once again overtakes Harris

On October 8, Polymarket real-time data showed that Trumps probability of being elected as the 2024 US president was 52.6%, while Harriss probability of being elected was 42.3%, 6.3 percentage points behind Trump. In the vice presidential debate, Vance leveled the poll support for Trump. However, since the poll data for this election is relatively stalemate, it is still worth paying attention to before the election results are announced.

ETH inflation rate rises to a two-year high

Binances October monthly market insights report shows that ETHs inflation rate has soared to 0.74%, a two-year high. The report points out that the rise of Layer 2 has reduced gas fees, leading to a decrease in ETH destruction.

Current layout

Currently, BTC has maintained a six-month consolidation period of $50,000 to $70,000. Before the catalytic factors such as the election take effect, BTC may continue to consolidate and show a volatile trend. At the same time, looking at the options market, the downward fluctuation of spot prices has become more intense due to the geopolitical situation, making the demand for short-term put contracts (especially those expiring in October and November 8) relatively strong.

In the current context, investors are advised to pay close attention to large transactions and market capital flows while maintaining caution, allocate assets rationally, and lock in some returns in advance. For example, according to their own risk preferences and risk tolerance, part of the funds can be invested in stable cost-protected products, and part of the funds can be used for high-yield structured products. Through dynamic product matching, investment returns can be obtained while controlling risks.

Shark Fin, Trend Smart Profit and Seagull are suitable for most investors. Among them, Seagull, as an innovative product that integrates dual currency and Trend Smart Profit, has more flexible and diverse settlement methods. Proper use can enable investors to capture greater returns in a volatile market and reduce losses caused by market fluctuations. Shark Fin and Trend Smart Profit are mature cost-protected structured products that can meet the publics needs for stable and principal-protected returns.

As the worlds leading one-stop crypto financial service platform, Matrixport provides users with diversified asset management products, including dual-currency investment, Snowball, Shark Fin, Trend Win, Seagull and other structured products; quantitative strategy, passive strategy and other strategic investments. The above products support multi-currency investment and a wide range of investment cycles.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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