Planet Daily | The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has dropped
Headlines
According to CMEs Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 55.0% (57.0% before the announcement), and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 45.0% (43.0% before the announcement). The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 28.9%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 49.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 21.3%. (Jinshi)
Binance will launch DOGSUSD COIN-M perpetual contract
According to the official announcement, Binance will launch the DOGSUSDCOIN-M perpetual contract at 10:00 (UTC) on September 10, 2024, supporting up to 20x leverage.
Ethereum Foundation AMA: Ethereum Foundation’s fund reserves can cover 10 years of budget
Justin Drake, a core researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, responded to the question How long will it take for the Foundations reserves to run out? during the 12th AMA of the Ethereum Foundation, saying that the Ethereum Foundations financial report should be released soon. The Foundations current annual budget is about $100 million, mainly composed of grants and salaries, and some grant recipients can only accept legal tender. At current prices, the Ethereum Foundations main Ethereum wallet holds about $650 million worth of ETH. Previously, due to regulatory reasons, sales were temporarily stopped, so the reserve funds were not replenished until recently. Roughly estimated, the Ethereum Foundations reserves can cover a 10-year budget, but the amount of reserve funds is greatly affected by ETH price fluctuations.
Industry News
Forvis Mazars: No urgency for the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points
George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars, told CNBC on Thursday that while no one can guarantee the size of the Feds rate cut at its upcoming meeting, he is firmly in the camp calling for a 25 basis point cut. I dont think theres an urgency to cut by 50 basis points, Lagarias said. A 50 basis point cut could send the wrong message to the market and the economy. And as we all know, a recession can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, so if they do that without a particular reason, it would be very dangerous. Unless something happens to make the market uneasy, theres no need to cause panic. (Jinshi)
U.S. companies added the fewest jobs since early 2021 last month, further evidence that the labor market is shifting to slower growth. ADP data showed that private sector employment increased by 99,000 in August, with the previous months increase revised down. The latest data fell short of all expectations. After two years of substantial growth, the downward trend in the job market has kept hiring below normal levels, said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. Wage growth is stabilizing after a sharp slowdown in the aftermath of the pandemic. Companies are scaling back hiring in response to high costs and high interest rates. The latest data adds to evidence of slowing labor demand, with Federal Reserve officials saying they are now more concerned about labor market risks than inflation. With price pressures largely retreating from their peak, markets expect policymakers to begin cutting interest rates this month. Another report released Thursday showed that U.S. companies hiring plans through August were 41% lower than the same eight months in 2023. Announced layoffs fell 3.7%. (Jin Shi)
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31 was 227,000, in line with expectations for 230,000. The previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000.
The number of Americans who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week ending August 24 was 1.838 million, which was expected to be 1.865 million. The previous value was revised from 1.868 million to 1.86 million. (Jinshi)
According to market news, the number of ADP employment in the United States in August was 99,000, which was expected to be 145,000. The previous value was revised from 122,000 to 111,000. The number of ADP employment in the United States in August increased by 99,000, the smallest increase since January 2021. (Jinshi)
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $57,000 on Thursday, possibly due to lingering concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Valentin Fournier, an analyst at digital asset consulting firm BRN, said that the recent tendency to sell on rallies may be due to concerns about the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, and market sentiment is driving a reduction in exposure to risky assets. He said: Economic reports are increasingly showing that the risk of a recession cannot be ignored. The ISM manufacturing index was 0.5% lower than expected, and job vacancies were 7.7 million, compared with an expected 8.1 million. Given the current economic uncertainty and the possibility of a decline in liquidity, we recommend reducing investment in BTC and waiting for a better entry point before increasing investment. (Coindesk)
Project News
Coinbase International will launch IMX and FLOW perpetual futures trading
Coinbase International and Coinbase Advanced will add support for Immutable and Flow perpetual futures, and the IMX-PERP and FLOW-PERP markets will open on or after September 12, 2024, at 9:30 a.m. (UTC).
Mode delays second quarter airdrop to October and increases token allocation
Mode posted on the X platform that the second season airdrop activity, which was originally scheduled to end on September 6, was extended to early October. New governance and incentive mechanisms will be introduced in the third season. Mode will increase the token allocation quota for the second season, and the rest of the rules such as point accumulation and on-chain TVL remain unchanged.
StarkWare announces partnership with sCrypt to build Bitcoin-L2 specification bridge
StarkWare announced a partnership with sCrypt to explore the construction of a Bitcoin-L2 specification bridge using a PoC bridge design based on OP_CAT and ZK magic.
Aave community launches proposal to introduce USDS and sUSDS to Aave v3
According to the Snapshot governance page, the Aave community has initiated a proposal vote to introduce USDS and sUSDS into Aave v3, aiming to introduce USDs and sUSDS (the renamed DAI and sDAI tokens) into Aave v3. The voting will end on September 6.
Whales Market launches GRASS (Grass) on Pre-Market
Official website data shows that Whales Market has launched GRASS (Grass) in the Pre-Market, and the current price is 0.399 USDT.
Aleo has announced the details of its incentive program, which aims to reward community members who participate in the development of zero-knowledge technology applications. Incentive distribution targets include ambassador programs, testnets, zkML incentives, etc.
The claiming process requires participants to complete KYC verification, agree to the terms and comply with the token lock-up regulations. Regardless of whether you are a U.S. resident or not, you must comply with the one-year lock-up period.
The DOGS project updated relevant information in the official telegram channel early this morning, saying that the airdrop data: In the previous 48 hours, more than 40 billion tokens were distributed to more than 2.5 million people. This process is proceeding at the fastest speed, and soon everyone will receive their airdrops. Remind users to choose to claim the airdrop as soon as possible.
Character*Voice
Davide Crapis, a core researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, responded to the question “If blobs fail to reach the target average (3), should the target be lowered to ensure fee price discovery?” during the Ethereum Foundation’s 12th AMA: “No. The mechanism prices congestion, so if there is no congestion, it is OK for prices to remain low. However, the current demand is well below the target, which affects price discovery in the case of congestion. Price discovery is important, and we should make the mechanism more efficient. In the short term, changes such as increasing the (but still very low) minimum fee or changing the update speed can help.”
Another core researcher, Dankrad Feist, said on the issue: “Ethereum is currently creating a new market for rollups – the data availability (DA) market. Many alternative solutions want to take market share away from Ethereum – Celestia, Eigenlayer, Avail, etc. They cant compete on security, so they want to compete on price. Revenue from 3 blobs per block will never have an impact on Ethereums protocol revenue. I think in the next few years we should strive to scale as much as possible. Either way, I dont think blob fees will be the best value capture mechanism for Ethereum.
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev posted on the X platform that the design of its synthetic stablecoin has been completed. The synthetic stablecoin will support the following collaterals with different annual interest rates: USDt, USDc, DAI, USDe, BTC/ETH, blue chip tokens (limited list), and long-tail altcoins (limited list).
Jupiter founder: Proposes to use the unclaimed 230 million JUP to fund the next few ASRs
Jupiter founder meow posted on the X platform that he proposed to use the unclaimed 230 million JUP in the first Jupuary to extend and fund the next few ASRs. If there is no major objection, a formal proposal will be made and voted on next week.
Investment and Financing
E-PAL Completes $30 Million in Funding and Launches Web3 Experience Infrastructure BALANCE
Web3 gaming and social companion platform E-PAL announced the launch of the AI-driven blockchain experience platform Balance, which has successfully completed two rounds of financing led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and Galaxy Interactive. The latest round of financing also received support from other investment institutions, including Animoca Brands, K 5, CLF Partners, MBK Capital, New Heights Fund, AMBER, MarbleX, Sky Mantra, Tuna, Aptos Labs, IOBC, Leland, Halcyon Capital, Uphonest, Taisu Ventures, Gate Labs, DWF Ventures, BING, WAGMI, YouTube co-founder Steve Chen, Riot Games CEO Marc Merrill and League of Legends Director Thomas Vu. As of now, E-PALs total financing has reached 30 million US dollars. (Coindesk)
Daniel Howard, son of British hedge fund billionaire Alan Howard, and his partner Bhavin Vaid announced the creation of Halo Capital, a crypto venture capital fund. The fund has raised $25 million and aims to introduce growth investor thinking to early crypto projects. Halo Capital is headquartered in New York and has a wide range of investments, covering a wide range of fields from Bitcoin to decentralized artificial intelligence. (Bloomberg)
Onocoy Association, a community-based blockchain global GNSS network, announced the completion of a strategic round of financing of US$940,000. GPS industry company Thomas Seiler and DePIN project Smart Island participated in the investment. As of now, the companys total financing amount has reached US$4.2 million. The specific valuation information has not been disclosed. Onocoy uses shared infrastructure supported by blockchain technology to provide professional-grade GNSS data. The new funds will support its construction of a decentralized platform to expand into agriculture, construction, land management and autonomous systems.
Gate Ventures invests in Japanese Web3 gaming giant double jump.tokyo
Gate Ventures officially announced that it has made a strategic investment in double jump.tokyo Inc., a top Japanese Web3 gaming company, as part of a $10 million financing round led by SBI Investment. This significant investment demonstrates Gate Ventures’ strong commitment to promoting the development of blockchain technology and the Web3 gaming ecosystem globally.
The D round of financing was led by SBI Investment, and attracted participation from industry leaders such as Sony Group Corporation, Taisu Ventures, and Kitadenshi Inc. The funds will help double jump.tokyo further develop and support blockchain games, blockchain infrastructure, and related services, and strengthen the companys organizational structure and talent base. Since its establishment in 2018, double jump.tokyo has been leading the trend of blockchain game development.
Thanks to the support of Gate Ventures, double jump.tokyo plans to expand its innovation in joint game development and infrastructure improvement. Gate Ventures is confident that this cooperation will help double jump.tokyo become a key driver for the mass adoption of Web3.
Arris, a DeFi ecosystem aggregation airdrop platform, announced the completion of a new round of financing. Institutions such as CGV FoF, K 24 Ventures, DMAIL.AI and Alco Holdings participated in the investment and will jointly support Arris in shaping the future of Web3.
It is reported that Arris is an on-chain interactive aggregation growth platform that aims to create a DeFi ecological aggregation airdrop platform integrating DEX, IMO and DAO.
Security incidents
NBA star Jaylen Browns X account was hacked to publish a large amount of fake token information. Users should be careful not to interact with fake contracts. So far, the hacker has used Browns account to continuously update nearly 30 dynamics. At present, the account seems to be still in a stolen state, and the dynamics still exist. In addition to the fake tokens, the remarks include attacks on Browns teammate Tatum, Nike, actress Sydney Sweeney, etc. Jaylen Brown currently plays for the NBA Boston Celtics. He was selected as an All-Star reserve in the 2023-24 season. He won the NBA championship with the Celtics and was elected FMVP of the Finals.
This article is sourced from the internet: Planet Daily | The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has dropped to 55% after the release of ADP and initial claims data; Binance will launch DOGSUSD COIN-M perpetual contract (September 6)
1. Conclusion 1. Macro-level summary and future forecasts The Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge rose modestly on Friday and household spending remained steady, suggesting policymakers are on track for a soft landing, thus reducing the need for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Wall Street still expects a larger rate cut in November or December, though. In the future, the market will continue to pay close attention to changes in the labor market and the upcoming employment data. Although interest rate cuts have become a high probability, the resilience of the economy and the mild rise in inflation may limit the extent of interest rate cuts, especially when economic fundamentals remain stable. 2. Cryptocurrency market changes and warnings After several days of rebound, the…
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