SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240726): Beware of the weekend

Over the past two days, traditional market concerns about the impact of the AI investment bubble on technology stocks have caused a collective decline in U.S. stock indexes and put pressure on digital currency prices. In addition, strong U.S. GDP data (2.8%, expected 2%) and allegations of market manipulation against Bitfinex and Tether have also cast a shadow on bullish sentiment.

Source: SignalPlus Economic Calendar

The past two days have been even more difficult for ETH. Although the inflows from the three giants on the first day of the ETFs listing offset the selling from Grayscale, the selling of ETHE has not slowed down in the past 48 hours, while the inflows from other products have been intercepted, resulting in net outflows of 152 million and 133 million US dollars respectively. ETH once dropped to around 3070, giving up nearly half of the gains after the rebound from the bottom in early July, and rebounded slightly today to around 3250. However, some analysts are optimistic about the eventual addition of the ETH Spot ETFs staking function, believing that this will increase the attractiveness of the ETF and make the market rethink and weigh the possibility of short-term risks and potential long-term gains.

Source: TradingView; Farside Investors

In terms of options, the 28 JU L2 4 options that were delivered on the day of the 2024 Bitcoin Summit were sought after by the market as soon as they were launched. The market priced-in the extremely high price volatility expectations on the Forward IV of the day, and the ATM VOL was priced at a high of 90%. At the same time, the Vol Skew curve rose sharply due to the markets positive expectations, tilting towards call options, but such a high Vol Premium also attracted the attention of traders, and the 67000/68000/69000 Calls all saw fierce selling (see the transaction distribution in the figure below).

Source: Deribit (as of 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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