SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240715): When the gunshots sounded

At 18:00 on July 13, local time in the United States, Trump held a new round of presidential campaign rally speeches in Butlobe, Pennsylvania. At 18:11, a gunman fired several shots at him from a high position outside the venue, injuring Trumps right ear, and also sounded the American peoples support for Trump, causing his election victory rate to soar to more than 70%. Considering his use and support of digital currency (at least during this campaign), the assassination also indirectly supported the continued rise in BTC prices and the rapid rise in overall volatility levels from the bottom of the weekend.

Source: TradingView; SignalPlus

But then again, the credit for Bitcoins recovery is not all his. According to data provided by Farside Investors, traditional funds have been re-injected into the digital currency market through Spot ETFs in recent days. On the one hand, the upcoming September interest rate cut provides support in the macro environment. On the other hand, according to Arkham, the German government currently has no coins to sell. BTCs performance of holding the 50,000 bottom line under strong selling pressure in the recent period has also made investors more confident in its price resilience, and also provided a preview for the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment event. From the perspective of option trading, investors have expressed positive sentiment in the past 24 hours by selling a large number of short-term bearish strategies (Short Put Spread, Short Put). The more representative ones are BTC Short 26 JUL 62000 vs 58000 Put Spread (200 BTC per leg) and ETH Short 26 JU L2 4 3300-P (3500 ETH). But we also noticed that the number of BTC buy-put strategies in August was also considerable. Traders seized the opportunity of this upward price movement and bought relatively cheap put options to provide continued protection for profitable longs.

Source: Farside Investors; Twitter

Source: Deribit (as of 15 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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