SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240704): BTC falls below 60,000

Although Powell deliberately avoided the question of whether to cut interest rates in September during his speech on Tuesday and emphasized the two-way risks of adjusting monetary policy, yesterdays weak economic data still boosted market confidence in rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.06%, the Nasdaq closing up 0.88%, and the SP rising 0.5% to break its historical high again.

Source: SignalPlus, Econimic Calendar

In terms of digital currency, the short-term positive news released at the macro level has not been able to dispel the haze hanging over the BTC price. According to reports, the German government transferred $172M worth of Bitcoin from its wallet to the three exchanges Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. In addition, the US government also made a similar move some time ago (selling the payment for Silk Road), and the recent repayment of Mt. Gox have brought strong selling pressure to the market.

The BTC price also fell below the extremely important psychological support level of $60,000 today. It once fell below 57,000 and then rebounded to 58,000, resulting in a shortage of short-term put options for 5 JUL and 12 JUL, pushing the IV curve out of the recent ultra-low level and moving higher. At the same time, the 26 JUL call option was also sold in large quantities, and the market sentiment in the short term is quite pessimistic.

Source: Deribit (as of 4 JUL 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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