SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240624): Mentougou is here again

In the past two weeks, the dark cloud hanging over the BTC price is not only the continuous outflow of spot ETFs, but also the time bomb of Mt. Gox. Today, Mt. Gox trustees officially started to repay creditors. According to Nobuaki Kobayashi, the trustee of Mt. Gox, the compensation will be paid in BTC and will start in early July. Combined with the 14,000 BTC transferred from the Mt. Gox address a month ago, the market immediately reacted to the risk aversion after the news came out, causing BTC to plummet in the short term, once dropping below 61,000.

Source: Farside Investors; TradingView

In terms of options, the increase in actual volatility and market concerns about the future market have significantly raised the level of implied volatility at the front end. At the same time, the Vol Skew at the front end also maintained a positive correlation with the price and fell to the negative range. From the perspective of BTC trading, before the news, although the price had been falling for several consecutive days, the Flow concentrated in the market at the end of June was still dominated by Long Risky. Perhaps the low price attracted the bottom-fishing of call options, or the trust in the two key support levels of 61000/60000.

Regarding ETH, the president of The ETF Store once again stated that the Ethereum spot ETF may be launched next week, which gave the community some hope. Market expectations also pushed the smile curve to tilt towards call options in July, which was in sharp contrast to the front end. However, there seemed to be differences in the market. Under the conditions of high IV and high Vol Skew, more than 3,000 4000-C were sold at the end of July, becoming a hot spot for trading yesterday.

Source: Deribit (as of 24 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus, Front-End IV rises after the plunge

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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