SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240606): ETF flows pour into the market

Before the release of non-farm data, yesterday (5 JUN), the US ADP index, known as the small non-farm, was lower than expected, recording 152,000 people, the smallest increase since January this year. U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the 10-year yield falling below the 4.3% mark. The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the SP and Nasdaq up 1.18% and 1.96% respectively, and the Dow up 0.25%. Nvidia surged 5.16%, with its total market value exceeding Apple, ranking second in the world.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar; Investing

In terms of digital currency, under the favorable macro environment in recent days, the price of BTC continued to rise, challenging the resistance level of 71,600 again. The force that helped it rise must be inseparable from the accelerated inflow of ETFs in the past two days. The purchase volume on June 4 alone was as high as US$886 million, and it continued to increase by US$488 million yesterday.

Source: TradingView

Source: Farside Investors

In terms of options, BTC front-end IV and Vol Skew fell at the same time. From the perspective of trading, the continuous rise in prices attracted traders to sell short-term call options, and there were also call spreads sold at the end of June. In addition, the last single-leg 92000 vs 100000 buy call strategy with more than 1000 BTC at the end of July became the focus of the market, but then almost half of the position was closed at the cost price within an hour.

Source: Deribit (as of 6 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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