a16z: Seven key crypto trends to watch in 2025

Original title: 7 Big Ideas for 2025 (and more trends to watch)

Original author: a16z 加密货币

原文翻译：Ismay、BlockBeats

Abstract: This article will explore seven core trends in cryptocurrencies, covering stablecoins, app stores, decentralized governance and more. These trends will not only drive industry development, but also provide new perspectives for future technological innovation and applications.

以下为原文内容：

Some trends were watching

a16z released a comprehensive list of big ideas for the coming year based on its partners observations in areas such as AI, American vitality, life sciences/health, cryptocurrency, enterprise services, fintech, gaming, and infrastructure, aiming to inspire technology builders.

Below are some of the key ideas shared by members of the cryptocurrency team, and read the full article for more exciting content.

If you want to know the outlook for policy, regulation, etc. in 2025, please refer to this 文章 published in November.

1. Companies will increasingly accept stablecoin payments

Over the past year, stablecoins have found product-market fit — which is not surprising, as they are currently the cheapest way to send dollars and enable fast global payments. They also provide entrepreneurs with a more convenient platform to develop new payment products: no middlemen, minimum balance requirements, or proprietary SDKs. But large enterprises have yet to realize the huge cost savings and new profit opportunities that switching to these payment rails will bring.

While we’ve already seen some businesses express interest in stablecoins (and early adoption in peer-to-peer payments), I expect to see a larger wave of experimentation in 2025. Small/medium businesses with strong brand power, a loyal customer base, and facing high payment costs (like restaurants, coffee shops, and convenience stores) may be the first to switch from credit cards to stablecoins. These businesses don’t benefit from the fraud protection of credit cards (especially for in-person transactions), and high transaction fees are particularly detrimental to their bottom line (a 30 cent fee per cup of coffee is huge in lost profits).

We should also expect larger businesses to start adopting stablecoins. If stablecoins can accelerate the evolution of banking history, businesses will try to disintermediate payment facilitators — adding the 2% profit directly to their bottom line. In addition, businesses will start looking for new solutions to problems currently solved by credit card companies, such as fraud protection and identity verification.

—Sam Broner (X Platform @sambroner | Farcaster Platform @sambroner)

2. Countries explore putting national debt on the blockchain

Putting treasury bonds on-chain will create a government-backed, interest-bearing digital asset while avoiding the regulatory privacy issues that come with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Such products can provide a new source of collateral demand for lending and derivatives protocols in DeFi (decentralized finance), adding more stability and credibility to these ecosystems.

As governments around the world that support innovation further explore the advantages and efficiencies of public, permissionless and tamper-proof blockchains this year, some countries may pilot issuing on-chain government bonds. For example, the UK has explored digital securities through a sandbox project set up by its financial regulator, the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority); the UK Treasury has also expressed its intention to issue digital bonds.

In the United States, as the SEC (Securities and 交换 Commission) plans to require the clearing of Treasury bonds through traditional cumbersome and costly infrastructure next year, expect more discussion on how blockchain can improve transparency, efficiency and participation in bond trading.

—Brian Quintenz (X Platform @brianquintenz | Farcaster Platform @brianq)

3. DUNA will become the new industry standard for the US blockchain network

In 2024, Wyoming passed a new law that officially recognized DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) as legal entities. DUNA (Decentralized Unincorporated Nonprofit Association) is designed specifically to support decentralized governance of blockchain networks and is currently the only viable legal structure for projects in the United States. By incorporating DUNA into a decentralized legal entity structure, crypto projects and other decentralized communities are able to give their DAOs legal status – thereby promoting broader economic activity while protecting token holders from legal liability and properly addressing tax and compliance needs.

DAOs, as communities that govern the affairs of open blockchain networks, are an important tool to ensure that networks remain open, fair, and avoid unreasonable value extraction. DUNA can unlock the potential of DAOs, and there are already multiple projects promoting its implementation. As the United States further supports and accelerates the development of its crypto ecosystem in 2025, I expect DUNA to become the industry standard for US crypto projects. In addition, other states may follow suit and adopt similar structures (Wyoming pioneered this trend; they were also the first state to adopt the now widely used LLC) – especially as other decentralized applications outside of the crypto field (such as physical infrastructure/energy grids) emerge.

-Miles Jennings (X platform @milesjennings | Farcaster platform @milesjennings)

4. Developers will reuse infrastructure more often than reinventing it

Over the past year, teams have been constantly reinventing the wheel in the blockchain technology stack – for example, developing yet another set of custom validators, consensus protocol implementations, execution engines, programming languages, and RPC APIs. These attempts may have slight improvements in certain specific features, but they often fall short in broader or basic features. Take a programming language designed specifically for SNARKs as an example: ideally, this language can help top developers build SNARKs with better performance, but in practice, it may lag behind general programming languages in terms of compiler optimization, development tools, online learning materials, and AI programming support (at least for now), and may even lead to poor SNARK performance.

Therefore, I expect that in 2025, more teams will leverage the work of others and reuse existing blockchain infrastructure components – from consensus protocols and existing staked capital to proof systems. This approach will not only help developers save a lot of time and effort, but also allow them to focus on creating the unique value of their products or services.

The infrastructure needed to develop Web3 products and services for the masses is already in place today. As with any industry, the teams that ultimately succeed will be those that can effectively leverage complex supply chains, not those that scoff at technology they didn’t build themselves.

—Joachim Neu (X Platform @jneu_net)

5. Crypto industry welcomes exclusive app stores and content discovery channels

When crypto apps are blocked by centralized platforms like Apple’s App Store or Google Play, their top channels for user acquisition are limited. However, we are now seeing some emerging app stores and 市场s that are providing distribution and content discovery capabilities without the need for strict audits. For example, Worldcoin’s World App 市场place — which not only stores authentication information but also provides access to “mini apps” — brought hundreds of thousands of users to multiple apps in just a few days. Another example is Solana’s zero-fee dApp Store exclusively for mobile users. These cases also show that hardware (such as mobile phones or authentication devices) may become a key advantage for crypto app stores, not just software, just as Apple devices once drove the development of early app ecosystems.

There are also other stores with thousands of decentralized applications and Web3 development tools (such as Alchemy), as well as blockchains that act as game publishers and distribution platforms (such as Ronin). But this is not a completely entertainment ecosystem: if a product already has an established distribution channel (such as a messaging app), it is not easy to migrate it to the chain (the exception is Telegram/TON network). The same is true for applications that have significant distribution advantages in the Web2 ecosystem. However, 2025 may see more of these migrations.

—Maggie Hsu (X platform @meigga | Farcaster platform @maggiehsu)

6. From holders to users: the transformation of crypto users

In 2024, crypto has made important political progress, with many key policymakers and politicians expressing positive views. At the same time, crypto as a financial movement continues to develop (for example, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs have broadened investor participation channels). In 2025, crypto is expected to further develop into a movement of computing technology. But where will the next user group come from?

I think it’s time to reactivate currently “passive” crypto asset holders and convert them into more active users. Because currently only 5-10% of crypto asset holders are actively using crypto technology. We can bring the 617 million people who already hold crypto assets onto the chain, especially as blockchain infrastructure continues to improve and user transaction fees continue to decrease. This means that new applications will gradually emerge for existing and new users. At the same time, some of the early applications we have seen – covering areas such as stablecoins, DeFi, NFTs, games, social, DePIN, DAOs, and prediction markets – are also becoming more acceptable to mainstream users as the community pays more and more attention to user experience and other optimizations.

—Daren Matsuoka (X Platform @darenmatsuoka | Farcaster Platform)

7. Hidden technical details help Web3s killer applications emerge

The technological advantages of the blockchain industry make it unique, but also hinder mainstream user acceptance to a certain extent. For creators and fans, blockchain technology brings new possibilities for connectivity, ownership, and monetization… However, industry terminology (such as NFTs, zkRollups, etc.) and complex designs have become barriers to those who can benefit most from it. I have experienced this deeply in countless conversations with executives in the media, music, and fashion fields to discuss Web3.

Many mass adoptions of consumer technology have followed a similar path: the technology comes first, and then an iconic company or designer abstracts away the complexity, enabling a breakthrough application. Think of the development of email, where the SMTP protocol was hidden behind a “Send” button, or credit cards, where most users today don’t care about the underlying payment rails. Similarly, Spotify’s music revolution wasn’t achieved by showing off file formats, but by delivering playlists directly to users’ fingertips. As Nassim Taleb said, “Over-engineering leads to brittleness, and simplicity leads to scalability.”

Therefore, I think 2025 will be the year our industry embraces this philosophy: “Hide the technical details.” The best decentralized applications have already begun to focus on more intuitive interface design, making operation as simple as tapping a screen or swiping a card. In 2025, we will see more companies commit to simple design and clear communication; successful products do not need explanations, they directly solve problems.

—Chris Lyons (X Platform @chrislyons | Farcaster Platform)

6 Trends in Decentralized Governance in 2025

2025 will be an exciting year for decentralized governance. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) are breaking new ground and exploring new models for anonymous token holders to co-govern. Investment managers are working to convince clients to participate more frequently in online shareholder votes. Meanwhile, AI companies are beginning to use citizen assemblies to set specifications for large language models (LLMs). These efforts will lead to multiple decentralized governance experiments being carried out simultaneously, including:

1. Websites that help voters vote on their behalf

2. AI-assisted delegation mechanism

3. AI as an agent

4. Smarter participation incentives

5. More efficient funding of public goods

6. More experiments in lottery governance

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