A dialogue with a16z Lianchuang: Technological progress brought by AI and the future of the United States under regulato

由 TechFlow 编译

Guest: Marc Andreessen, Co-Founder of a16z

Moderator: Tom Bilyeu

播客来源： Tom Bilyeu

Original title: AI is bigger than the internetHow AI will change EVERYTHING Elon Musk Censorship | Marc Andreessen

Air Date: October 22, 2024

背景信息

Welcome to another thought-provoking episode of Impact Theory hosted by Tom Bilyeu. Today we’re in deep conversation with legendary entrepreneur and investor Marc Andreessen. Together Tom and Marc will explore a wide range of topics, from the future of technology and artificial intelligence to the dynamic complexity of the American economy and society.

Marc shared his optimism about America’s potential, especially driven by its diverse and ambitious population, while Tom asked relevant questions about looming challenges such as inflation, government regulation, and economic growth. They explored how technological advances, especially artificial intelligence and robotics, have the potential to revolutionize industries, but can also clash with traditional values and social norms.

We’ll dive into key issues like job loss, censorship, and the evolving role of free speech in a rapidly changing world. Marc discusses the “slow moving sectors” of healthcare, education, and housing, highlighting the urgent need to reduce costs and drive growth through technology integration.

This episode is packed with insights into the historical and future impact of technology on the economy, the role of government regulation, and the changing ideologies of religion and culture. Get ready to challenge your perspective and gain insight into the forces shaping our future. Buckle up, this is a discussion you don’t want to miss!

How companies are shaping the future with AI and robotics

AI and why it matters

• Marc said that the AI review war will become more intense and important. He believes that rapid technological progress will bring economic growth, but this requires peoples attention and support.

• Tom believes that AI will replace many jobs, and some people will reallocate themselves by learning new skills, while others may not be able to do so. The two guests emphasized that we must be prepared for future changes.

AI’s Big Disruption

• Marc emphasized that AI is a fundamental change, similar to the advent of computer microprocessors and the Internet. His optimism about AI is reflected in multiple industries, especially in the medical and entertainment fields. He mentioned that the medical industry will have significant breakthroughs due to the application of AI, and the entertainment industry is also experiencing a surge in creativity.

Advances in Robotics

• Marc discussed the potential of robotics, mentioning the promise of home robots and automation in the past. He noted that as technology advances, applications such as self-driving cars and drones are becoming more mature. He predicted that within the next five years, home robots will gradually enter the market.

Challenges facing robots

• Marc mentioned that robotics faces three main challenges: physical control, energy supply, and software development. Despite progress in sensors and data processing, battery life and the ability to adapt to complex environments still need to be overcome.

Robot-human interaction

• When talking about how robots interact with humans, Marc believes that robots should be designed to be friendly and safe. He mentioned that modern language models enable robots to communicate naturally with humans, which provides unlimited possibilities for future product design.

Society’s acceptance of AI

• Tom proposed a social polarization, arguing that there may be a polarization of those who embrace technology and those who reject it in the future. Marc was skeptical, believing that despite this polarization, most people will eventually accept the development of technology, similar to the selective acceptance of technology by the Amish.

From science fiction to reality: The rapid rise of AI

Popularization and Application of AI

• Tom and Marc discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly transformed from a fringe technology to a common tool in our daily lives.

• Marc pointed out that AI systems such as ChatGPT and Midjourney have hundreds of millions of users, and usage is still growing rapidly. Many people use these tools at work and in school, even though they may not be willing to admit it to their superiors.

Democratization of technology

• Marc emphasized that the most powerful AI systems are now available to the public at a very low cost (usually free or up to $20 per month). The speed of this technologys popularity has even surpassed the speed of personal computers and the Internet. He mentioned that users can get the same technology as large companies without paying high fees, and this phenomenon is changing peoples traditional concept of technology acquisition.

The future of AI and its social impact

• Tom expressed optimism about the future development of AI, believing that this technology will bring about tremendous changes. He admitted that AI will lead to the loss of a large number of jobs, but it will also create new opportunities. Tom believes that young people will be able to better utilize new technologies due to their strong adaptability, and society needs to provide support to those who are impacted, such as through universal basic income (UBI).

Inflation crisis: Why your savings are shrinking

The relationship between economy and inflation

• When talking about the economy, Tom raises an important question: Why does inflation still exist despite the huge productivity gains brought about by technological progress? He believes that the government absorbs the economic benefits brought by technology by printing money, which leads to the continuous rise of inflation. This phenomenon makes people make irrational choices when faced with economic changes.

• Tom expressed his dissatisfaction with the current economic situation, especially his anger at the surge in money supply. He mentioned that the government creates inflation by artificially increasing the money supply, which erodes the wealth of ordinary people. Tom believes that the government has a moral responsibility to provide a non-inflationary form of currency that allows ordinary people to preserve their wealth without having to rely on the stock market to fight inflation.

Productivity and Technological Change

• Marc discussed the relationship between productivity growth and technological change. He pointed out that historically, productivity growth was much faster in the decades before 1970 than it is now. Despite technological advances, productivity growth has remained low over the past sixty years. Marc mentioned that 1971 was an important turning point, after which productivity growth slowed significantly.

The impact of a low-growth environment

• In a low-growth environment, economics and politics tend to present the characteristics of a zero-sum game. Marc believes that if economic growth is slow, society will be divided and the wealth gap between young and old will widen. On the contrary, rapid technological progress and productivity growth will promote economic prosperity and give everyone the opportunity to benefit.

Price differences between industries

• Marc pointed out that there are significant differences in price changes in different industries in the current economy. Prices in industries such as healthcare, education, and housing are soaring, while prices in video games, entertainment, and consumer electronics are falling. The reason for this phenomenon is that industries with rapid technological changes are subject to less government regulation, while industries with slow changes are subject to strict regulation and fixed supply constraints.

未来展望

• Marc predicts that if current trends continue, the cost of a four-year college degree could reach a million dollars in the future, while the price of technology products will drop significantly. This imbalance puts a greater financial burden on people, especially in terms of health care, education and housing.

How do health care, education and housing drive inflation?

The necessity of introducing technology

• Marc pointed out that to solve the inflation problem in the fields of medical care, education and housing, more technology must be introduced in these industries. He believes that fully automated and AI-driven medical care, education, and efficient housing construction can significantly reduce prices, thereby reducing inflationary pressure. Without technological change, future politics will become extremely fierce because people will have to compete for fewer and fewer resources.

Labor market contradictions

• Speaking about the strike by the DOC (port workers) union, Marc mentioned that workers demanded a ban on the introduction of new technologies to protect their jobs. This contradictory position reflects the complex psychology of workers who want to get higher wages while also wanting to keep their jobs. In fact, this protection has prevented many workers from participating in actual work, thereby increasing the cost of the overall economy.

Concentrated benefits and dispersed harm

• Marc further explained the concept of concentrated benefits and diffused harms. For DOC workers, measures to protect their jobs bring direct benefits, but make other consumers face higher prices when purchasing goods. This situation is common in the economy, where specific interest groups obtain protection by lobbying the government, which ultimately leads to a decrease in overall economic efficiency.

Impact of occupational licensing

• Marc also mentioned that about 30% of jobs in the United States require some form of occupational license, a phenomenon that is particularly evident in California, where it has even become a threshold for professions such as beauticians. The strict occupational licensing system makes it difficult for new entrants to enter the market, thereby limiting competition and innovation in the industry and further pushing up the price of services.

Monopoly of the education system

• In the field of education, Marc pointed out that due to the existence of federal student loans, universities and colleges must obtain accreditation in order to obtain loans, and the accreditation process is controlled by existing educational institutions. This self-protection mechanism makes it difficult for new schools to be established, thereby limiting the supply of the education market and driving up tuition fees.

Are licensing requirements just a Monopoly scam?

Government Monopoly and Union Protection

• Marc pointed out that K-12 education is not only a cartel structure, but also a government monopoly. Many government employees, including teachers and police, enjoy public protection and union protection, which makes it difficult for them to be fired. This system has led to incompetent teachers being unable to be fired, further exacerbating the problem of education quality.

Legal and automation barriers

• Marc stressed that laws restrict the application of AI in many areas. AI cannot become a lawyer, a doctor, or perform construction work because these are prohibited by law. Such legal restrictions prevent many parts of the economy from being automated, resulting in suppressed potential for economic growth.

The number of laws and regulations has increased dramatically

• Marc mentioned that since the 1970s, the number of laws and regulations in the United States has increased dramatically, resulting in severe restrictions on economic activities. He cited the work of Judge Neil Gorsuch, pointing out that the number and complexity of laws have made it difficult for ordinary citizens to follow them, and they may even violate the law unintentionally. He emphasized that many laws and regulations are designed to protect the interests of specific interest groups, resulting in the phenomenon of concentrated benefits and dispersed harms.

Possibility of economic reform

• When talking about future reforms, Marc mentioned that Argentinas new president, Javier Milei, is trying to massively cut regulations to stimulate economic growth. He believes that if regulations can be effectively reduced, it may lead to higher economic growth and prosperity. Mileis reforms have received public support because people are tired of the existing high inflation and regulatory system.

Free speech and cultural discussion

• Tom believes that restoring freedom of speech is crucial to economic recovery. He emphasized the necessity of openly discussing different viewpoints and how to balance freedom of speech and regulation in the AI era. Marc also said that he is a firm supporter of freedom of speech and believes that the Internet should follow the principles of the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and should only be restricted when it involves truly dangerous behavior.

The age of AI censorship is here — what you need to know

Comparison of social media censorship and AI censorship

• Marc pointed out that the censorship war on social media is a prelude to the AI censorship war. He believes that AI censorship will be more intense and important because AI will become the software layer that controls everything, affecting all aspects of our education, communication, etc. He mentioned that some AI systems have already shown obvious bias and shown obvious unfairness when giving information about different political candidates.

The Current State of Information Warfare

• Marc stressed that the conflict over AI censorship has already begun, with those who once pushed for social media censorship now turning to AI censorship. He warned that this could be one of the most important political struggles in the next 30 years.

Control of truth and framework

• Tom expressed concerns about AI censorship, pointing out that the control of frameworks could lead to the manipulation of thoughts. He believes that when AI is used to spread a specific ideology, it can influence peoples thinking by setting frameworks and limit their understanding of the truth.

Elon Musks Vision for AI

• Marc mentioned that Elon Musk pursues maximum truth exploration in his AI project, which includes scientific truth and socio-political truth. He believes that if an AI that truly pursues the truth can be successfully built, it will be a fundamental change.

The potential of open source AI

• Marc believes that open source AI could play an important role in advancing truth-seeking by allowing people to experiment and develop without permission, thereby promoting broader discussion and debate.

Pressure from government and business

• Marc warned that todays technology companies face enormous pressure from governments and social activists, and that these pressures are likely to intensify. He stressed that whether the public cares about the issue and is willing to stand up to defend free speech will be key.

• Marc concluded that the potential impact of AI censorship is far-reaching and society needs to pay attention to this issue and safeguard the rights of free speech and truth-seeking. He called on the public to actively participate in the discussion to ensure that AI technology develops in a direction that promotes open communication and truth.

The hidden power struggles that shape our culture

Double standards in cultural censorship

• Marc pointed out that many people in todays society support censorship mainly because they want to protect their own views. In the past, Christian conservatives were the main drivers of censorship in the United States, while the left advocated free speech. Over time, the shift in power has allowed the left to gain control of mainstream culture, and now they tend to restrict speech, while the right has become a force against censorship. This dynamic change reflects the struggle of culture and power, and whoever holds power tends to restrict speech.

The Importance of Free Speech

• Tom emphasized the importance of freedom of speech, believing that expressing ideas and accepting challenges are the core of thinking. He used the examples of Newtonian physics and relativity to illustrate that scientific truth is constantly revised and updated, and only through open discussions and challenges can we get closer to the truth. For young entrepreneurs, accepting criticism and challenges is the key to improving skills and acquiring practical knowledge.

Elon Musks secret to success

• When talking about Elon Musks success, Marc pointed out that Musks working style and thinking mode made him different. He emphasized that Musk focused on substantive issues, advanced projects quickly, and was able to quickly identify and solve bottlenecks. This efficient working style enabled his company to make progress faster than its competitors.

Fight against bureaucracy

• Marc also mentioned that many large companies have become inefficient due to excessive bureaucracy and processes. He cited the example of Shopify CEO Toby Luky, who regularly canceled all meetings and reassessed which meetings were necessary to prevent the company from falling into an ineffective meeting culture. Such practices help keep the company agile and ensure that employees can focus on actual work.

How IBMs corporate hierarchy stifles innovation

The impact of bureaucracy

• When discussing IBM, Marc pointed out that the hierarchical structure and bureaucracy of an enterprise can seriously hinder innovation. He gave an example that within IBM, the decision-making process is extremely complicated, and any decision can only be made after the consent of multiple levels of managers. This consensus system requires that every relevant manager must agree, and any objection from any one person can prevent the decision from being made, resulting in the companys inability to quickly adapt to market changes.

Excessive layers of management

• Marc mentioned that when he was working, becoming a CEO required crossing as many as 12 layers of management. This huge structure made the flow of information slow and decision-making inefficient. As the company grew in size, the connections between employees became increasingly sparse, and many employees might never see colleagues from other departments at work in their entire lives, forming a closed ecosystem.

The “rubber room” phenomenon

• Marc also mentioned that similar to the rubber room in New York public schools, IBM also has a similar phenomenon, where many poorly performing employees are placed in positions without substantial work content, further exacerbating the companys inefficiency and loss of innovation. This situation makes it impossible for the company to respond and adjust quickly when facing market challenges.

The relationship between culture and innovation

• Marc emphasized that the health of corporate culture directly affects the ability to innovate. In an environment full of bureaucracy, employees often lack enthusiasm and creativity because their ideas and suggestions may be overwhelmed by layers of approval. On the contrary, leaders like Elon Musk encourage employees to take the initiative to innovate and quickly try and fail through a flat management structure and efficient decision-making model.

The impact of AI on society: what it means for human interaction

The Evolution of the Relationship between AI and Humans

• Tom made a thought-provoking point that people may form close relationships with AI in the future, and even choose to raise AI children with AI in some cases. This trend may lead to major changes in social structure and interpersonal relationships. As technology advances, people may become more and more dependent on AI to meet their emotional needs, and even replace traditional interpersonal interactions to some extent.

Culture and Fertility Changes

• Marc further discussed the current global decline in fertility, pointing out that this phenomenon is common in different cultures, reflecting the confusion and sense of crisis of human beings in the face of the pressure of modern life. He mentioned that this decline in fertility is closely related to peoples pursuit of the meaning of life. While seeking self-realization, people may ignore the traditional values of family and fertility.

The Interaction between Meaning Crisis and Technology

• Marc emphasized that technology not only changes culture, but culture also shapes the development of technology. With the popularization of AI, people may face a deeper crisis of meaning, because the emergence of AI may change peoples views on intimacy, family and fertility. People may re定义ne the concept of family with the company of AI, and this change may trigger religious and cultural reflections and debates.

Changes in human psychology

• Marc also mentioned that the experience of becoming a parent profoundly changes a persons psychological state and outlook on life. This transformation cannot be completely replaced by a relationship with AI, because the emotional connection between humans and the unique experience of childbirth cannot be simulated by AI. Although people may form some form of emotional connection with AI, this connection is still fundamentally different from the depth and complexity of interpersonal relationships.

未来展望

• In the future, AI may become an indispensable part of human life, and even replace traditional intimate relationships to some extent. However, Marc reminds us that although AI can provide convenience and companionship, real interaction and emotional connection between humans are still indispensable elements in our lives. We need to enjoy the convenience brought by technology while maintaining the importance of interpersonal relationships and family values, and ensure that human emotional needs are met.

Why relationships are more important than ever as birth rates fall

The centrality of interpersonal relationships

• Marc stressed that the human need to form deep relationships with other people is deep-rooted, whether with kin or non-kin friends. Such relationships occupy a central place in our lives, especially in the context of declining fertility rates, where changes in family structures make interpersonal relationships even more important. As people choose not to have children or to have fewer children, traditional family ties may weaken, making human connections even more precious.

The impact of declining fertility rates

• The decline in fertility rates means that many traditional family and community structures are changing. Marc mentioned that as more people choose not to have children, the inheritance of many cultures and values may be affected. This change not only affects the individuals lifestyle, but may also have a profound impact on the cohesion of society as a whole. People may rely more on friends and communities to fill this gap and seek emotional support and a sense of belonging.

Material Wealth and Spiritual Exploration

• Marc also mentioned that although the advancement of technology and AI has improved our material living standards, it does not mean that humans have found the answer to the question of finding the meaning of life. On the contrary, material abundance may provide people with more opportunities to think about these deep questions. When people are no longer struggling for survival, they are better able to explore major issues about religion, philosophy, and lifestyle. Therefore, as material conditions improve, the value of interpersonal relationships may rise further.

The intersection of religion and interpersonal relationships

• When discussing the impact of religion, Marc pointed out that the form of religion in modern society has changed. Although many people may no longer participate in religious activities in the traditional way, the core values and exploration of human existence of religion still exist in different aspects of society, including politics and culture. When people face challenges and uncertainties in life, they often return to some form of belief or value system. This phenomenon is more and more obvious in todays society.

未来展望

• As society continues to develop, declining birth rates may lead to a reshaping of interpersonal relationships. People may place greater emphasis on connections with others to make up for the lack of traditional family structures. At the same time, advances in technology will provide people with new ways to build and maintain these relationships. Despite the many challenges, the importance of interpersonal relationships will become increasingly prominent in this rapidly changing world, becoming the key to peoples search for support and meaning.

Why religion no longer defines culture and genes

The historical connection between religion, culture and genes

• Marc mentioned that early Western civilization was made up of families, tribes, and cities, structures that contained shared blood, culture, religion, and geography. In the past, religion was closely tied to these elements, and changing beliefs was considered unthinkable at the time. However, with the development of society, these elements have gradually become abstract, and religion has become loosely tied to culture and genes. Modern people can freely choose their own religious beliefs, no longer restricted by the culture and family background at birth.

Religious Choice in Modern Society

• In todays society, individuals can choose to be Catholic, Christian, Jewish, Muslim, or even create their own religion. This free choice makes religion like a buffet, where individuals can build a belief system according to their needs and preferences. Although this change has promoted the innovation of religious concepts, it has also led to the weakening of the importance of religion in modern life.

The “non-seriousness” of religion

• Marc pointed out that modern people seem to be less serious about religion. When religious beliefs become inconvenient, people are more likely to choose to give up or change their beliefs. This phenomenon reflects the decline of religion in contemporary society. Although human religious impulses still exist, their expression and focus have changed.

Alternatives to the religious impulse

• Tom proposed a hypothesis that the intensity of religious impulses remains constant across cultures and contexts, but only their targets change. He used video games as an example, noting that people invest a lot of time and emotion in gaming communities, forming a sense of belonging similar to religion. This sense of belonging and investment in games can satisfy peoples needs for community and identity. Although this sense of belonging is not equivalent to the influence of traditional religion, it reflects the human desire for belonging and meaning.

The hidden role of religion in building strong social bonds

Religious group formation and cohesion

• Marc mentioned that religion has played an important role in group formation and cohesion throughout history. In ancient societies, the formation of families, tribes, and cities were all closely related to religious beliefs. Initially, the family was the basic social unit. Over time, families gathered into tribes, and tribes gathered into cities, with each level having its own specific gods and beliefs. This religious structure not only strengthened the connection between families and tribes, but also provided a spiritual pillar for the formation of cities.

The relationship between survival and religion

• In ancient times, the living environment was extremely harsh, and threats such as famine, floods, and foreign invasions could affect the survival of the group at any time. In this context, religion became an important tool to unite people and enhance cohesion. Religious beliefs enabled people to form a common moral obligation in the face of external threats and maintain the stability and survival of the group.

The religious impulse in modern society

• Although the living environment of modern society is very different from that of ancient times, human religious impulses still exist. Tom pointed out that this impulse may turn to other areas in todays society, such as video games and politics. People seek a sense of belonging and identity in these areas, forming new communities and cultural bonds. Teamwork and competition in video games just reflect peoples need for group identity.

Morality and Blindness

• Marc cited the views of psychologist Jonathan Haidt, emphasizing how shared moral values or religious beliefs can bring people together, but can also lead to rejection of other views. This phenomenon is particularly evident in modern politics, where fierce partisan struggles make it more difficult for people to understand the other sides position and instead tend to defend their own group interests.

Politics as the new religion

• Marc and Tom both agree that modern politics plays the role of religion to some extent. Peoples passion and involvement in politics are often similar to the intensity of religious beliefs. Political beliefs not only affect personal life choices, but also form a strong sense of belonging in society. This phenomenon shows that although the influence of traditional religions has weakened, human needs for faith and belonging still exist and are met in other areas.

• As the influence of traditional religions weakens, political beliefs increasingly serve as peoples spiritual sustenance. The fierce confrontation and deep sense of belonging in modern politics have led people to regard politics as a new religion to some extent. Whether in the long course of history or in todays society, this transformation reflects the eternal pursuit of human beings for meaning and belonging.

The unexpected link between productivity and innovation

• Marc mentioned that productivity growth is an important economic indicator that measures the impact of technology in the economy. In short, productivity growth means producing more output with less input. This concept can be illustrated by many examples, such as using more efficient tools and technologies to speed up railway construction, reduce the cost of automobile production, or improve the efficiency of video game development.

• The rate at which productivity grows directly affects the rate at which the economy grows. When productivity increases, the prices of goods and services generally decrease. For example, 200 years ago, an avocado cost the equivalent of $100 today, but now costs just $1. This price reduction gives consumers more purchasing power, allowing them to buy more goods and services even without wage growth.

New consumer demands and industrial development

• As consumer purchasing power increases, the market demand for new products and services will also increase. This growth in demand will drive the emergence of new industries and jobs, thus forming a virtuous circle. Marc believes that if artificial intelligence develops as expected, productivity will increase significantly and the prices of goods and services will fall further, allowing more people to get what they want.

Technological Adaptation and Economic Growth

• Marc emphasized that the introduction of technology will not lead to unemployment, on the contrary, it will create more jobs and better working conditions. He mentioned that historical concerns about technology replacing human labor are often wrong. Technological progress usually leads to higher productivity and lower costs, thus promoting economic development.

Optimism about the future

• Although Marc is optimistic about the future, he also emphasizes that material well-being cannot solve all the deep problems in life. He believes that having material well-being is the basis for answering bigger questions, but it is not the ultimate goal. He made it clear that he is not advocating a new religion, but hopes to improve the living conditions of mankind through the improvement of technology and productivity.

This article is sourced from the internet: A dialogue with a16z Lianchuang: Technological progress brought by AI and the future of the United States under regulatory game

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