特朗普赢得大选，交易员如何看待后市？

The election dust has settled and Trump has been re-elected as President of the United States.

Funds could no longer be held back, and Bitcoin rose violently when the key swing state of Pennsylvania turned positive. The super asset with a market value of trillions of dollars quickly rose by 3 points, and key integers were broken through continuously. The market finally waited for Bitcoins historical high.

$75, 000 for a brand new future.

New highs mean that everything will be replanned. So what do top traders think of Bitcoin after Trump’s election? BlockBeats has compiled some for you, hoping to provide a reference.

Trumps influence on Bitcoin

PlanB：预计25年底BTC将达到$100万

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and is well-known in the 加密货币 industry for his unique model of the relationship between asset scarcity and price. His analysis looks at the growth potential of Bitcoins long-term value, especially price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB constructs a series of monthly timelines to show the direction of Bitcoins price development under different market scenarios.

在几个月前的预测中，PlanB 根据自己的模型 S2F 给出了具体数值：

October: Classic Bullish Month, BTC Reaches $70,000

PlanB predicts that the price of Bitcoin will see a strong rise in October. He believes that the surge in Bitcoin may be driven by increased volatility in the global market and the recovery of investor confidence, which is also the point in time when Bitcoin has shown a surge in price many times in history.

November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000

若特朗普胜选，PlanB 认为比特币将迎来重大转折，他指出特朗普上台或将为加密货币带来友好政策，从而结束当前拜登/哈里斯政府对加密货币的战争，尤其是对 Gary Gensler、Elizabeth Warren 等高级监管者的政策制衡，将导致比特币价格直接攀升至 $100,000。

December: ETF funds pour in, Bitcoin soars to $150,000

PlanB认为，特朗普胜选将为比特币ETF的获批扫清道路，预计大量资金将流入市场，ETF的流入代表着主流金融市场对它的接受和认可以及投资者的信任，将进一步推动比特币价格升至$15万。

January 2025: Crypto returns to the US, Bitcoin climbs to $200,000

As the Trump administration opens up to cryptocurrency policies, a large number of crypto industry companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the United States. PlanB predicts that this will have a significant market demand effect, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $200,000.

February 2025: The Power Law team exits with a profit, and the price falls back to $150,000

The February pullback is a prediction of a correction in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that investors’ profit-taking will cause Bitcoin to briefly fall back to $150,000 after hitting a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.

March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000

Starting from March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries to gradually use Bitcoin as legal tender, and starting from April, the United States will also start a strategic reserve of Bitcoin under the promotion of Trump. Then, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, causing Bitcoin to further climb to $500,000.

June 2025: AI-powered, $600,000

In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence began to autonomously participate in arbitrage in the Bitcoin market. He predicted that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency 贸易 will further drive the price up, causing Bitcoin to exceed $600,000.

July-December 2025: FOMO subsides, price reaches $1 million

In the following months, PlanB believes that the markets FOMO sentiment has begun to subside, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this time, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have for global investors.

2026-2027 — 市场 Correction and Bear Market

In 2026, PlanB predicts that the price of Bitcoin will pull back from $1 million to $500,000 and enter the distribution stage. By 2027, the market will enter a bear market and the price of Bitcoin is expected to drop to $200,000.

PlanB 总结称，这一预测的关键在于比特币的稀缺价值。他指出，稀缺性将成为推动资产价格的核心因素，就像房地产和黄金等稀缺资产一样。PlanB 认为，在未来 18 个月内，比特币价格预计将因减半效应和市场需求而出现跳跃式增长，从而继续巩固其在全球投资者中的数字黄金地位。

The key to PlanBs prediction is the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that investors like scarcity, and there are basically three options for scarcity now: real estate (S2F100, market value of $10 trillion), gold (S2F60, market value of $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F120, market value of $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.

Alex Krüger: BTC spot will be the main currency on election night

Alex Krüger, an Argentine economist, trader and consultant, believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:

Trump wins: Bitcoin price target is $90,000 by the end of the year. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin price will quickly reach $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin price will soar rapidly because the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trumps victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the markets rapid reaction will be reflected soon after the news is confirmed.

Krüger stressed the importance of timing, especially for leveraged investors. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trumps victory, the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly. Krügers personal operation is an unleveraged position (mainly Bitcoin and some technology stocks such as Nvidia). He believes that spot positions should be the main focus to avoid the volatility risks brought by high leverage.

At the same time, Krüger said that regardless of the election results, he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market. He pointed out that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, because the price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the U.S. stock index. Especially in the scenario of Trumps victory, he expects that more friendly cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures will drive the stock market higher, which will in turn benefit Bitcoin.

At present, Krüger pointed out that the market has partially priced in Trumps victory. As for the strategy on election night, Krüger said that he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot and take long-term operations when Trump wins, such as increasing his holdings of Solana (SOL).

记忆传授人：中期选举将在选举之后举行

The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He currently works in special situation private equity, providing a different perspective. The Givers strategy is more conservative and short-term-focused than Krüger and PlanB. He believes that the election-driven rise in Bitcoin is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view places special emphasis on the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may see a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:

The driving force behind Bitcoins rise this time is from event-driven non-sticky buyers, that is, some short-term speculators seeking to hedge against election risks, not due to overall trends. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for a long time, and they may quickly exit the market once the election dust settles. Therefore, these funds lack stickiness and Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure after the election.

山寨币表现低迷，比特币集中度高。他认为，资金流入主要集中在比特币上，而流入山寨币并不广泛，导致山寨币表现低迷。这说明目前的资金流向更多的是看中比特币作为避险工具，而不是看中整个加密市场的利益。

The Giver expects that Bitcoins open interest and positions will continue to be crowded this week, and even reach new highs. He pointed out that this right-side effect may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but it is unlikely to last into the next year due to the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024. This short-term effect makes it more likely that Bitcoin prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not enough to support a long-term rally.

Markus：做多BTC、做空SOL的对冲策略

Markus Thielen 是 Matrixport 和 10X Research 的知名分析师，几个月前他对比特币市值 $1 万亿的预测极其准确，迅速在投资界传开，让他声名鹊起。

Markus latest analysis is based on 10X Researchs latest signal model, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually achieved within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if the price of Bitcoin continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, the price of Bitcoin may exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of about $140,000 on April 29, 2025.

Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts that Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also gain similar gains. He believes that Trumps victory will bring a more cryptocurrency-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market up.

Of course, we have also prepared for unexpected situations, so Markus suggested a strategy of long Bitcoin and short Solana to hedge against the uncertainty brought about by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or controversial, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.

渣打分析师：若特朗普获胜，年底BTC将升至$12.5万

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, the price of Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year.

Kendrick’s model shows that Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000 on Election Day (November 5). In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rise by about 4% immediately and another 10% in the following days, with rising market confidence and a looser regulatory environment becoming the main drivers.

谁将成为总统？其他资产将产生多大影响？

The market generally believes that transactions after Trumps victory are more complicated. The asset categories that are more bullish include cryptocurrencies such as gold and Bitcoin. US stocks and the US dollar may show a trend of short-term rise but medium-term correction. However, assets such as crude oil, US bonds, and copper may be affected to a certain extent.

美国股票

预计特朗普胜选将利好美国股市的小型股和某些行业，尤其是传统能源、枪支制造、私人监狱运营商和小型零售商。由于特朗普偏爱低税和减少监管，尤其是针对国内制造业，企业减税以及他对能源和采矿业的支持可能会推动小型股上涨。罗素 2000 指数（小型股基准）已开始反映这种预期，自 10 月初以来上涨了约 4%。

美元和外国 交换 市场

The expectation of a Trump victory has been reflected in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Mexican peso, which is considered one of the currencies most affected by Trumps immigration policies. Market volatility has also increased significantly when Trumps election prospects have improved, with the MSCI Latin American Currency Index falling more than 3%, while the US dollar has strengthened significantly after Trumps statement on import tariffs on Mexican goods.

石油和铜

If Trump wins the election, traditional energy industries (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trumps supportive policies. Trumps energy policies tend to reduce regulations and support domestic mining and fossil fuel use, which will have a positive impact on related markets.

美国国债

特朗普胜选对美债短期利好，利率和债市方面，市场分析师表示，聪明钱开始关注债市，美债收益率或因特朗普胜选预期而上升，长期来看，在财政扩张和通胀风险影响下，美债或面临较大抛售压力。

金子

作为最传统的通胀对冲工具，无论谁赢得大选，黄金似乎都会继续上涨。分析师普遍认为，美国政府债务问题将继续扩大，并将通过通胀进行稀释。因此，黄金和比特币成为投资者对冲通胀的主要选择。黄金由于其避险属性，将吸引投资者应对美元潜在的贬值压力和经济不确定性。

不过渣打银行分析师指出，特朗普胜选后金价上涨的可能性更大，因市场普遍预期特朗普胜选后将加大财政支出，这将在短期内推动通胀，从而进一步增加黄金需求。

Suddenly becoming a loyal crypto player, how much does Trump like Bitcoin?

曾几何时，特朗普是加密货币的坚定反对者。2019年初，还在任的特朗普公开批评比特币和其他加密货币，称它们只是空洞的价值，并认为加密资产可能被用作非法活动的工具。他表示，比特币不是货币，而且波动性极大。

After leaving the White House, Trump continued to be reserved in interviews, calling Bitcoin a scam and insisting that the U.S. dollar should be the worlds only reserve currency. During this period, Trumps attitude towards cryptocurrencies was generally negative. But the NFT trend in 2021 soon began to influence Trumps views.

The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a cold winter, many crypto projects were on the verge of bankruptcy, and market confidence was low. At this time, Trumps long-term adviser Bill Zanker appeared in his life and brought a suggestion to change Trumps mind: issuing Trump-themed NFTs.

特朗普对此表现出了意想不到的兴趣——不过，他并不喜欢 NFT 这个词，更喜欢称之为数字交易卡。虽然看起来很奇怪，但这些卡片非常受欢迎，每张售价 $99，在发行后几乎售罄。特朗普的 NFT 实际上让这位前总统第一次站在了加密人士的面前，不仅为他带来了数千万美元的收入，还让他发现了一个新的、强大的支持群体。

结果，特朗普对加密的态度在过去几年里完全发生了逆转。

November 1, 2024 is the 16th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper. Trump tweeted his blessing for Bitcoin and said that if elected, he would end the Harris administrations crackdown on cryptocurrencies and even called on supporters to help him realize his vision of Bitcoin Made in America. At this point, he is no longer an opponent or even just a bystander, but a presidential candidate of a crypto advocate.

最具标志性的事件是他出席纳什维尔的比特币 2024 会议，会上特朗普宣布他将成为加密货币的坚定支持者。他甚至了解加密社区最大的痛点，并承诺解雇现任 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler，并用了解加密的监管者取而代之。

他直言反对加密是错误的政策，要让美国成为比特币超级大国，希望通过更友好的监管环境引领全球加密行业发展。他甚至称赞比特币是现代经济的核心，称如果未来比特币要登上月球，希望美国能成为领头羊。

特朗普出席比特币 2024 大会。来源：华尔街日报

特朗普在演讲中极力将自己与民主党对加密货币的严格立场进行对比，尤其是将自己与以加密货币监管闻名的伊丽莎白·沃伦相提并论，并指出如果当选，将成立总统加密货币咨询委员会。特朗普的这番表态立即引发全场热烈掌声和欢呼声。更令人震惊的是，他还提出比特币的市值未来可能超越黄金，并公开批评拜登和哈里斯政府的反加密货币政策。

发布会上，特朗普仿佛经历了一次公众觉醒，他不再是前任对加密货币持怀疑态度的总统，而是成为了比特币和自由市场的捍卫者。观众被他态度的转变所感染，把他视为加密圈的英雄。

特朗普出席比特币 2024 大会。来源：纽约时报

这一转变背后的另一个细节，则揭示了特朗普与加密货币之间的微妙联系。在发布会上，他望着人群中的加密货币支持者，提到比特币在他上任总统期间上涨了 3,900%，从不到 $1,000 涨至超过 $30,000。他的演讲不仅点燃了全场，还获得了比特币行业巨头的支持，如埃隆·马斯克、双胞胎兄弟文克莱沃斯、风险投资巨头 A16Z 创始人马克·安德森等均表示支持他的加密货币政策。

除了比特币本身，特朗普也逐渐意识到比特币挖矿对美国能源安全和经济主权的重要作用。2024年6月，他与美国几家大型比特币挖矿公司的高管会面，承诺将在政策上大力支持加密货币挖矿活动。他甚至在Truth Social平台上发文称，比特币挖矿是对抗央行数字货币（CBDC）的最后一道防线，希望剩下的比特币都在美国制造。在特朗普看来，比特币挖矿不仅仅是一种经济活动，它还象征着美国对抗央行的意志。

9 月，特朗普在纽约一家比特币主题酒吧 PubKey 用比特币购买了一个芝士汉堡。这一举动也推动了将比特币从金融投资产品重新拉回日常交易货币的可能性，并成为其加密货币立场的象征。

特朗普还对加密社区做出了更大的承诺，不仅公开表示将保留比特币的战略储备，还计划赦免因运营暗网平台而被判终身监禁的罗斯·乌布利希特。通过这些激进的举措，特朗普成功让自己成为加密社区的救世主。他承诺保护比特币免受政府过度监管，让美国成为全球加密货币的中心。

在特朗普是否会重返白宫的悬念中，比特币和整个加密市场的未来似乎正处于十字路口。过去几年，政治动荡、政策变化和全球经济不确定性将比特币一步步推向新的高度。如果特朗普再次上台，他对加密货币的支持无疑可能引发市场新一轮的狂热，将比特币推向新的高度，甚至重塑美国的金融格局。

This article is sourced from the internet: Trump wins the election, how do traders view the market outlook?

Related: A look at the U.S. Treasury Department’s report on crypto assets and Treasury bond markets

Original translation: Pzai, Foresight News Crypto asset growth and usage trends Crypto assets have experienced rapid growth, albeit from a small base. Growth has come both from native cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and from stablecoins. Cryptocurrency market capitalization chart Cryptocurrency adoption by households and industries has so far been limited to holding crypto assets for investment purposes, crypto asset market capitalization remains low relative to other financial and physical assets, and growth to date does not appear to have cannibalized demand for Treasury securities. Crypto asset use cases are evolving, but interest is primarily along two tracks: Bitcoin’s primary use appears to be as a store of value in the DeFi world, aka “digital gold.” Speculative interest appears to have played a prominent role in crypto growth so…