Matrixport投资研究：市场明显谨慎，建议关注以下

The latest data shows that US retail sales spending increased by 1% month-on-month to $709.7 billion in July. Strong consumer spending has temporarily eased market concerns that the economy may fall into recession. US stocks have responded well to this. As of Thursdays close, the SP 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have achieved six consecutive gains. However, crypto assets have not received the positive dividends of this macro data. Limited by the challenges of summer, BTC is still in a volatile consolidation stage.

In the past ten years, BTC has risen by more than 227% overall, 56% in the summer, and rebounded in the fourth quarter. Based on historical data and last years data, BTC may also rise in the fourth quarter of this year. In order to prepare for the upcoming market in the next few months, it is recommended to pay attention to the following events that may affect BTCs trend at the end of the year.

U.S. inflation rate falls, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September rises to 74%

The US inflation rate fell to 2.9%, far below the psychological threshold of 3.0%. This decline paves the way for the Fed to discuss interest rate cuts at its meeting on September 18, 2024. According to CMEs Fed Watch data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 74%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 26%. If the interest rate cut is implemented, it will be the first interest rate cut since the interest rate hike cycle in July 2023, and it will also be the longest interval between the interest rate hike cycle and the first interest rate cut in recent years in the history of US monetary policy.

Powell will have a window to set the tone for a September rate cut next Friday

According to Jinshi Data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at 10:00 pm Beijing time next Friday, the first full-day meeting of the Kansas City Federal Reserves annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This annual meeting of global central banks provides Powell with an opportunity to make an updated assessment of the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the outlook for monetary policy between the Feds July and September policy meetings. Last month, he said that if inflation and the labor market continue to cool, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting.

Harris leads Trump in polls, market closely follows Harriss stance on crypto assets

Poll data shows that Harris has become the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election on November 5, 2024. But unlike another candidate, Trump, Harris attitude towards crypto assets is unknown. Last Thursday, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna hosted a meeting aimed at repairing relations in the cryptocurrency industry, but Harris has not yet attended. Harriss cryptocurrency policy stance may affect the future direction of BTC.

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免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 对基于本内容提供的信息做出的任何投资决策不承担任何责任。

This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Investment Research: The market is clearly cautious, and it is recommended to pay attention to the following key events of the year

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