Matrixport 研究：BTC 处于超卖状态，复苏曙光即将来临

The latest research from Matrixport Research Institute shows that

• Risk assets continue to be affected by the macro economy, and inflation data may affect the recent market

• In times of great uncertainty, you may want to invest in options to balance your asset allocation

• The situation of the US election is still unclear, and the realization of the positive news is yet to be determined

Risk assets continue to be affected by the macro economy, and inflation data may affect the recent market

The current BTC price is in an oversold state. In the past, this situation usually led to a rebound, and the upcoming inflation data may boost market optimism.

Currently, risk assets are still greatly affected by macroeconomic factors, and recent concerns about economic growth and the job market have become the main influencing factors. The United States will release inflation data next week. If the inflation rate drops, especially if it can drop below 3.0%, traders will still respond positively, and BTC may usher in a recovery.

In times of great uncertainty, you may want to invest in options to balance your asset allocation

Matrix on Target also recommended investing in options with low price advantages during low volatility last year. Protecting a portfolio with cheap put options or buying call options with minimal risk capital is a good way to reduce BTC exposure risk during uncertain times. Like last year, this years 30-day realized volatility once fell to around 25% before rising sharply.

Trading volume and liquidity will decline in August, resulting in lower returns. Monday’s 18% plunge also confirms what was mentioned in last week’s report: “Bitcoin price momentum has begun to weaken recently, and coupled with the upcoming period of weakness, the challenging trading environment may continue for several weeks.”

The situation of the US election is still unclear, and the realization of the positive news is yet to be determined

Judging from the current situation, Trump is likely to win the 2024 US presidential election, but Harriss succession to Biden has dealt a blow to the Republican Party. Harris is currently ahead of Trump in the polls, and the handover on July 21 coincides with the BTCs weak rebound, which has a greater impact on BTC traders.

结论

Investors should keep an eye out for traders trying to buy the dip. Circle stablecoin saw a large outflow last week, and the large inflow this week could be a sign of bottom fishing. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 30%, which could be a buying opportunity, similar to what happened in June 2024. In a BTC bull market, while consolidation is possible, it is rare for the RSI to be below 30%.

上述部分观点来自Matrix on Target。 联系我们 获取Matrix on Target的完整报告。

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This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Research: BTC is in an oversold state, and the dawn of recovery is approaching

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