加密市场情绪研究报告（2024.07.26-08.02）：美联储持续调控 比特币下跌

Bitcoin falls as Fed remains on hold

Since inflation has fallen less quickly than expected, the Federal Reserve has kept its interest rate target range between 5.25% and 5.5% since the end of July last year, the highest level in 23 years. After the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to as low as $62,300 and then rebounded.

As the third quarter draws to a close, most market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If the fight against inflation continues to make good progress, a rate cut could be announced as early as this years September meeting. This could be a positive factor for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Historically, a lower interest rate environment is good for cryptocurrencies as investors tend to seek higher-yielding assets. Despite the uncertain economic outlook, the prospect of looser monetary policy has boosted positive sentiment toward Bitcoin. However, investors need to be mindful of the risk of price volatility in the short term.

There are about 47 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

市场技术和情绪环境分析

情绪分析组件

技术指标

价格趋势

BTC price rose -0.68% and ETH price rose 0.88% over the past week.

上图是近一周BTC价格走势图。

上图是近一周ETH的价格走势图。

表格显示的是过去一周的价格变化率。

pctChange1Day3Day5Day7Daybtc_pctChange1.12% -2.14% -3.74% -0.68% eth_pctChange-0.91% -3.44% -1.4% 0.88%

价量分布图（支撑位与阻力位）

In the past week, BTC and ETH broke down from the concentrated trading area and then rebounded.

上图为近一周BTC密集交易区分布。

上图为近一周ETH密集交易区分布。

表格展示了过去一周BTC与ETH的周密集交易区间。

交易量和未平仓合约

In the past week, the trading volumes of both BTC and ETH increased after the August 1 interest rate meeting; the open interest of both BTC and ETH increased slightly.

上图上方为BTC价格走势，中间为成交量，下方为持仓量，浅蓝色为1日均线，橙色为7日均线。K线颜色代表当前状态，绿色表示成交量支撑价格上涨，红色表示平仓，黄色表示缓慢加仓，黑色表示拥挤状态。

上图上方为ETH的价格走势，中间为交易量，下方为持仓量，浅蓝色为1日均线，橙色为7日均线。K线的颜色代表当前状态，绿色表示价格上涨受到交易量支撑，红色为平仓，黄色为缓慢增仓，黑色为拥挤。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

Historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest this past week at 8.1; implied volatility for both BTC and ETH fell.

黄线是历史波动率，蓝线是隐含波动率，红点是其 7 天平均值。

事件驱动

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this past week, and after the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to a low of 62,300.

情绪指标

动量情绪

过去一周，比特币/黄金/纳斯达克/恒生指数/上证300中，黄金表现最强，比特币表现最差。

上图为近一周不同资产的走势。

贷款利率_贷款情绪

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.3%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12%.

黄线为美元利率最高价，蓝线为最高价75%，红线为最高价75%的7日均线。

表格显示了过去不同持有日的美元利率平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 7.9%, and contract leverage sentiment is gradually recovering.

蓝线为币安 BTC 资金费率，红线为其 7 天平均值

表格展示了过去不同持有日的BTC手续费平均回报率。

市场相关性_共识情绪

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.5, and the consistency between different varieties fell from a high level.

上图中蓝线为比特币价格，绿线为[1000 floki, 1000 luunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj、iot、iotx、jasmy、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、link、loom、lpt、lqty、lrc、ltc、luna 2、magic、mana、matic、meme、mina、mkr、near、neo、ocean、one、ont、op、pendle、qnt、qtum、rndr、rose、rune、rvn、sand、sei、sfp、skl、snx 、sol、ssv、stg、storj、stx、sui、sushi、sxp、theta、tia、trx、t、uma、uni、vet、waves、wld、woo、xem、xlm、xmr、xrp、xtz、yfi、zec、zen、zil、zrx]总体相关性

市场广度_总体情绪

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 42.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 20% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 35% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.

上图是[bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt、arb、ar、astr、atom、avax、axs、bal、band、bat、bch、bigtime、blur、cake、celo、cfx、chz、ckb、comp、crv、cvx、cyber、dash、doge、dot、 dydx、egld、enj、ens、eos 等、fet、fil、flow、ftm、fxs、gala、gmt、gmx、grt、hbar、hot、icp、icx、idu、 imx、inj、iot、iotx、jasmy、jto、jup、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、链接、loom、lpt、lqty、lrc、ltc、luna 2、magic、mana、manta、mask、matic、meme、mina 、 mkr、近、neo、nfp、海洋、一、ont、op、ordi、pendle、pyth、qnt、qtum、rndr、robin、rose、rune、rvn、sand、sei、sfp、skl、snx、ssv、stg 、storj、stx、sui、寿司、sxp、theta、tia、trx、t、uma、uni、兽医、波浪、wif、wld、woo、xai、xem、xlm、xmr、xrp、xtz、 yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 各宽度指标30天占比

总结

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell after the interest rate meeting, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies increased after the interest rate meeting on August 1. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased slightly. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate has rebounded slightly from a low level, which may reflect the gradual recovery of market participants leverage sentiment towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have retreated, indicating that the overall market has continued to fall in the past week.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

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