加密市场情绪研究报告（2024.07.19-07.26）：以太坊价格下跌逾7.5%，ETHE资金流出

Ethereum price drops more than 7.5%, ETHE outflow surges

Data from Coinglass

ETHE is Grayscales Ethereum trust ETF with a fee of 2.5%. The Ethereum spot ETF had an overall net outflow of $133 million on the second day of listing. The culprit was Grayscales ETHE, which caused the sharp drop in Ethereum this week, with ETH falling to as low as around $3,100.

For most investors, the decision comes down to fees. Eight of the nine ETFs have management fees between 0.15% and 0.25%. Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), a new fund created specifically for listing as an ETF, has a management fee of just 0.15%. These fees will be waived completely for the first six months after listing or until the funds assets under management (AUM) reaches $2 billion.

There are about 5 days until the next Fed meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

市场技术和情绪环境分析

情绪分析组件

技术指标

价格趋势

BTC price rose 2.83% in the past week, while ETH price fell -7.33%.

上图是近一周BTC价格走势图。

上图是近一周ETH的价格走势图。

表格显示的是过去一周的价格变化率。

价量分布图（支撑位与阻力位）

In the past week, BTC rose and then fell back into the concentrated trading area, while ETH fell and formed a new concentrated trading area at a low level.

上图为近一周BTC密集交易区分布。

上图为近一周ETH密集交易区分布。

表格展示了过去一周BTC与ETH的周密集交易区间。

交易量和未平仓合约

The biggest volume this past week was when BTC rose on July 19 and ETH fell on July 25; open interest rose for both BTC and ETH.

上图上方为BTC价格走势，中间为成交量，下方为持仓量，浅蓝色为1日均线，橙色为7日均线。K线颜色代表当前状态，绿色表示成交量支撑价格上涨，红色表示平仓，黄色表示缓慢加仓，黑色表示拥挤状态。

上图上方为ETH的价格走势，中间为交易量，下方为持仓量，浅蓝色为1日均线，橙色为7日均线。K线的颜色代表当前状态，绿色表示价格上涨受到交易量支撑，红色为平仓，黄色为缓慢增仓，黑色为拥挤。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

Historical volatility was highest this past week with BTC at 7.23 and ETH at 7.25; implied volatility was up with BTC and down with ETH.

黄线是历史波动率，蓝线是隐含波动率，红点是其 7 天平均值。

事件驱动

There were no major data releases in the past week.

情绪指标

动量情绪

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.

上图为近一周不同资产的走势。

贷款利率_贷款情绪

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 9.2%, and short-term interest rates fell to 6%.

黄线为美元利率最高价，蓝线为最高价75%，红线为最高价75%的7日均线。

表格显示了过去不同持有日的美元利率平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 5.3%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded from a low level.

蓝线为币安 BTC 资金费率，红线为其 7 天平均值

表格展示了过去不同持有日的BTC手续费平均回报率。

市场相关性_共识情绪

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.75, and the consistency between different varieties fell sharply and then rebounded.

上图中蓝线为比特币价格，绿线为[1000 floki, 1000 luunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj、iot、iotx、jasmy、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、link、loom、lpt、lqty、lrc、ltc、luna 2、magic、mana、matic、meme、mina、mkr、near、neo、ocean、one、ont、op、pendle、qnt、qtum、rndr、rose、rune、rvn、sand、sei、sfp、skl、snx 、sol、ssv、stg、storj、stx、sui、sushi、sxp、theta、tia、trx、t、uma、uni、vet、waves、wld、woo、xem、xlm、xmr、xrp、xtz、yfi、zec、zen、zil、zrx]总体相关性

市场广度_总体情绪

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 30% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 10% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 15% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 20% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market returned to a downward trend.

上图是[bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt、arb、ar、astr、atom、avax、axs、bal、band、bat、bch、bigtime、blur、cake、celo、cfx、chz、ckb、comp、crv、cvx、cyber、dash、doge、dot、 dydx、egld、enj、ens、eos 等、fet、fil、flow、ftm、fxs、gala、gmt、gmx、grt、hbar、hot、icp、icx、idu、 imx、inj、iot、iotx、jasmy、jto、jup、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、链接、loom、lpt、lqty、lrc、ltc、luna 2、magic、mana、manta、mask、matic、meme、mina 、 mkr、近、neo、nfp、海洋、一、ont、op、ordi、pendle、pyth、qnt、qtum、rndr、robin、rose、rune、rvn、sand、sei、sfp、skl、snx、ssv、stg 、storj、stx、sui、寿司、sxp、theta、tia、trx、t、uma、uni、兽医、波浪、wif、wld、woo、xai、xem、xlm、xmr、xrp、xtz、 yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 各宽度指标30天占比

总结

In the past week, the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum was different. Bitcoin fluctuated widely within the range, with the trading volume reaching the highest point on July 19 when it rose, the open interest volume increased, the implied volatility increased, and the funding rate rebounded, indicating that market sentiment has warmed up. Ethereum, on the other hand, fell in price after the shock, mainly affected by the outflow of ETHE funds, with the trading volume reaching the highest point on July 25 when it fell, the open interest volume increased, and the implied volatility decreased. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies have returned to a downward trend, indicating that the entire market has been dominated by declines in the past week.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.19-07.26): Ethereum price fell by more than 7.5%, and ETHE capital outflow surged

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