各方预测：以太坊现货ETF上市后中短期价格走势

原文翻译：吴说区块链

On July 22, the U.S. SEC officially approved the S-1 applications of multiple ETF issuers. The Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading, and trading began at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 23.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the spot ETH ETF group had a trading volume of $112 million in the first 15 minutes after the start of trading, which is a huge trading volume compared to the issuance of ordinary ETFs, but only half of the first-day trading volume of the BTC ETF group (excluding GBTC), but still exceeded expectations. In the first 15 minutes, Grayscale ETHE had a trading volume of $39.7 million, Bitwise ETHW had a trading volume of $25.5 million, BlackRock ETHA had a trading volume of $22.5 million, Fidelity FETH had a trading volume of $15.2 million, etc.

Wintermute, a large market maker , expects Ethereum ETFs to receive a maximum of $4 billion in inflows from investors over the next year. Thats lower than the $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion most analysts were expecting, and about 62% less than the $17 billion that Bitcoin ETFs have raised so far since they began trading in the U.S. six months ago. Wintermute does expect Ethers price to rise 24% over the next 12 months, driven by these inflows.

Daniel Yan, founder of Kryptanium Capital and co-founder of Matrixport, tweeted about the ETH ETF: I still hold the contrarian view that ETH/BTC will actually go lower rather than higher in the coming weeks. Reasons include: people buy when rumors spread and sell when facts are revealed; net flows may be negative. It is expected that ETH/BTC will fall below 0.05 and stabilize between 0.0475 and 0.05.

U.S. regulators have rejected a request from issuers to allow Ethereum ETFs to collateralize their cryptocurrency holdings. “Such losses reduce the competitiveness of ETH ETFs compared to direct holdings, as investors can still benefit from staking,” Wintermute said in its report.

Will Cai, director of Kaiko Index, said in a report: At the end of last year, the United States launched a futures-based ETH ETF, but the demand was not ideal. All eyes are on the launch of the ETF spot, with high hopes for rapid accumulation of assets. Regardless of the long-term trend, the price of Ethereum may be sensitive to the amount of inflows in the first few days of trading. Implied volatility shows a lack of confidence in the launch of the ETH ETF.

Citigroup reported that the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs could be equivalent to 30%-35% of Bitcoin ETFs, which means that the potential net inflow of Ethereum ETFs will reach US$4.7 billion to US$5.4 billion within six months. However, due to the lack of pledge and Bitcoins first-mover advantage, the flow of funds may be insufficient.

灰度 says nearly a quarter (25%) of potential (US) voters would be more interested in investing in Ethereum if an Ethereum (spot) ETF is approved.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, said that the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF could attract $15 billion worth of net inflows in the first 18 months after listing. He expects investors to allocate roughly according to the market capitalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ($1.2 trillion and $405 billion), that is, to provide about 75% weighting for the spot Bitcoin ETF and about 25% weighting for the Ethereum ETF. Currently, assets managed through spot Bitcoin ETFs exceed $50 billion, and Hougan expects this figure to reach at least $100 billion by the end of 2025.

Crypto analysis firm K 33 Research estimates that the spot ETH ETF to be launched in the United States will have an estimated inflow of $3 billion to $4.8 billion in the first five months, which would be equivalent to 800,000 to 1.26 million ETH accumulated in the ETF based on current prices, accounting for approximately 0.7% -1.05% of the total token supply. K 33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde said that this supply absorption shock should lead to an increase in ETH prices. In addition, K 33 believes that the omission of staking will not have a negative impact on the inflow of funds into the ETF. Previously, JPMorgan Chases forecast for inflows into the ETH ETF this year was $3 billion, and believed that the omission of staking would affect inflows.

根据一个 Bernstein report, the total Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF market is expected to grow to $450 billion, indicating that more than $100 billion will flow into crypto ETFs in the next two years. Previously, the broker predicted that the high point of the Bitcoin cycle in 2025 would be $150,000, with a target price of $90,000 at the end of the year. In addition, the report stated that Ethereum is the first PoS token approved as a spot ETF, which has a positive impact on other blockchain tokens, and Solana (SOL) may benefit.

Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra estimate that the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF will drive Ethereum prices up 75% to $6,600. They point out that the SEC approved a similar Bitcoin product in January, spurring a 75% rise in Bitcoin prices in the following weeks, and expect similar price action for ETH. However, Kaiko analyst Adam McCarthy believes that there is not much demand for the Hong Kong ETH ETF and that it has experienced several days of net outflows. The lack of collateral is also an important factor and could further affect demand.

Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, said that cryptocurrency ETFs such as SOL and XRP may be approved in 2025. He believes that the approval of the ETH ETF means that ETH and similar cryptocurrencies will not be classified as securities. In addition, it is expected that the ETH ETF may bring in $15 billion to $45 billion in capital inflows in the first 12 months. Kendrick also predicts that the ETF will push ETH to $8,000 by the end of 2024.

Noelle Acheson, former head of market insights and researcher at Genesis Global Trading, said that multiple indicators show that institutional interest in Ethereum ETFs is far lower than that in Bitcoin. Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Industry Research, expects Ethereum ETFs to account for 10-15% of Bitcoin ETF assets. The ETH futures ETF is currently only 4% of the BTC futures ETF. As for the spot Ethereum ETF itself, existing data shows that institutional interest may also be lacking.

Earlier in Wus podcast, lawyer Winter Soldier believed that when the Bitcoin ETF passed, I thought the Ethereum ETF would pass sooner or later. The approval of the spot ETF requires two important conditions: one is a mature futures trading market, and the other is the stability between spot and futures prices. This is why the Ethereum spot ETF was successfully passed after the Bitcoin ETF was passed. If Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in the future, it is also possible for the price of Ethereum to reach $6,000-8,000. This forecast is relatively conservative, and the actual situation still depends on the macroeconomic trend. The Solana spot ETF is less likely to pass due to the lack of futures ETFs and insufficient decentralization.

James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said in an interview that the demand for spot Ethereum ETFs could reach 20% to 25% of the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. James Seyffart pointed out that this prediction is based on the Ethereum market size being about 30% of Bitcoin. Limitations of Ethereum ETFs include the inability to stake and the inability to take advantage of on-chain utility. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicts huge demand for spot Ethereum ETFs, which will come from diversified investments and interest in high-growth technology investments.

Cobo and F2pool co-founded Shenyu said that in the early stage of ETH ETFs listing, the main capital inflow may come from retail investors, accounting for 80-90% of the total funds, and institutional users will participate less; after December, institutional investors may gradually enter the market.

原文链接

This article is sourced from the internet: Predictions from all parties: Short- and medium-term price trends of Ethereum spot ETF after listing

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