SignalPlus 波动率专栏 (20240722)：拜登退出大选

Yesterday morning, the Democratic presidential candidate Biden suddenly announced his withdrawal from the election on Twitter, triggering a shock in the crypto market. BTC first fell below 66,000 in a short period of time, and then quickly recovered all the lost ground and climbed below the resistance level of 68,500 US dollars before the opening of the Asian market, showing a V-shaped reversal trend. Analysts have different views on the incident. Some believe that Bidens withdrawal from the election has increased Trumps chances of winning. Considering that Trump has said that he may use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve resource and other remarks in favor of cryptocurrency, this news is good for the price of the currency; others pointed out that since the riots on January 6 this year, the American peoples trust in Trump has also weakened. Trumps current competitor has changed to Kamala Harris. Although his chances of winning are still high, the new candidate is not less threatening than the overwhelming gap with Biden. As the passion of surviving the shooting fades, Trumps prospects for victory seem to have become a little vague again. But in any case, we have seen that the impact of the trend of the US political situation this year on the price of the currency is gradually increasing, and any further actions of the two parties may have an impact on the price trend in the short term.

资料来源：TradingView

On the macro level, this week there are important indicators such as manufacturing/service index/GDP/PCE released. Considering the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, this weeks data is crucial.

资料来源：SignalPlus，经济日历

In terms of options, implied volatility has recently shown a general trend of fluctuating upwards. Due to poor liquidity on weekends, the IV fluctuations caused by the latest news event appear to be more severe. The IV Curve of the term can interpret the views of some markets. In terms of BTC, the Bitcoin 2024 conference scheduled to be held on the 25th-27th of this month has become the focus of attention. At that time, presidential candidate Trump will give a speech as the number one guest. The market has priced it with a high degree of uncertainty, which makes the expiration date 2 AUG 24 after the meeting obtain a higher Vol Premium; in terms of ETH, the spot ETF originally scheduled to start trading on July 23rd has been enthusiastically anticipated by the community, and the IV at the front end has leveled off and risen to a high of 70% Vol.

Source: Deribit (as of 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

来源：SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, ETH overall transaction distribution/26 JU L2 4 transaction distribution

数据来源：Deribit，BTC交易总体分布

来源：Deribit Block Trade

来源：Deribit Block Trade

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This article is sourced from the internet: SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240722): Biden withdraws from the election

相关：拜登退出选举，加密行业还有救吗？

原创｜Odaily星球日报（@OdailyChina）作者：温瑟（@wenser2010）今天凌晨2点，拜登宣布退出2024年美国总统大选。或许受此影响，加密市场插电，比特币跌至$65,700附近，以太坊跌至$3,400附近，但随后迅速反弹。详情见市场分析3分钟速览后市：底部已过，上涨已成必然？。之后，拜登支持副总统哈里斯为民主党总统候选人。Odaily星球日报将在本文中解读分析此次事件对加密行业的影响。加密货币影响：代币涨跌互现除了比特币和以太坊受到美国大选相关消息影响外，很多相关代币，尤其是Meme币，…