EMC实验室比特币周观察（7.1~7.7）：清算加剧，亚洲做空美国抄底买入

作者： 尚2046

本报告所提及的关于市场、项目、货币等的信息、观点和判断仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。

市场周刊

BTC adjusted more sharply last week, falling 10.87% and fluctuating 16.44%, breaking through the new high consolidation range. The lowest point was $53,400, which was nearly 28% lower than the highest point. Doubts about whether the bull market is still there have further intensified.

We tend to believe that we are still in a bull market structure, but before the US interest rate cut is clear, market liquidity faces unprecedented challenges, coupled with the debt repayment factor of the rapid rise in March this year, there will be a relatively long downward adjustment. Overall, this will make time and space for the bull market in the macro rhythm of the big interest rate cut next year.

美联储和经济数据

Last week, the unemployment data released by the United States was higher than expected. UBS still believes that a rate cut in September is a high probability event, and a soft landing of the US economy may have become a reality. This Thursday, the US CPI for June will be released. If it continues to be lower than expected, the possibility of a rate cut in September will continue to increase.

资金

All signs show that Asian funds dominated this round of short-selling. They took full advantage of the market news that the German government and Mt.Gox disposed of a total of 190,000 BTC, chose to launch an offensive on Thursday when the US market was closed for the Independence Day, and superimposed the normal window period of the weekend.

First, although Chicago CME occupies the top position in the contract market with a BTC contract holding of $7 billion, Binance鈥檚 daily contract trading volume is currently three times that of CME. Together with the top-ranked Bybit, Bitget and OKX, Asian contract exchanges have recorded a total trading volume that is six times that of CME.

Second, in terms of the inflow of US dollar stablecoins, the US compliant stablecoin USDC reversed its decline over the past year and received a total inflow of US$1.378 billion. However, USDT, which has always played a major role in net inflows and is more commonly used by Asian investors, saw a net outflow of US$586 million. This abnormal phenomenon has never happened in the past year.

Driven by the strong inflow of USDC, stablecoins finally received a net inflow of US$570 million last week, a sharp reversal of the net outflow of US$600 million in the previous week.

Third, U.S. spot ETFs achieved net inflows on three of the five trading days throughout the week. On Friday, the second day of the big drop, they saw a net inflow of $143 million on a single day, bringing the total inflow for the week to $237 million.

On the exchanges side, stablecoins added $900 million.

芯片供应

Short-term investors sold 6,000 BTC at a loss of $520 million on July 5, and the pressure has reached the level of the last wash-out period in August and September last year.

Long-term investors sold a total of 1,000 last week, while miners continued to sell off, reducing their inventory by 2,000. At the same time, exchanges added more than 6,000 BTC to their holdings, totaling 2.975 million, indicating that there is still considerable upward pressure in the short-term market.

BTC 链上数据

BTC on-chain data continued to be sluggish, with new addresses and active addresses rebounding, but the number of transfers continued to decline. Due to the sell-off, the transfer scale increased significantly.

生态分析

Although the crypto market has experienced a sharp correction along with the trend of BTC, the infrastructure ecosystem outside of BTC has shown a good rebound trend: ETHs new addresses, active addresses and transfers are in a rebound state, and ETHs active addresses have shown an upward trend on the 30-day moving average. Solanas new addresses hit a new record high on July 3, and the 30-day moving average continued to maintain a high-speed upward trend. In addition, Solana DEXs trading volume once again exceeded Ethereum this week, becoming the public chain with the largest DEX trading volume on the chain.

EMC BTC 周期指标

Like last week, the EMC BTC Cycle bullish indicator is 0.125, and the market is still in a bullish dormant period.

结尾

EMC Labs 由加密资产投资者与数据科学家于2023年4月创立，专注于区块链行业研究与加密二级市场投资，以行业前瞻、洞察与数据挖掘为核心竞争力，致力于通过研究与投资参与蓬勃发展的区块链行业，推动区块链与加密资产为人类带来福祉。

如需了解更多信息，请访问：https://www.emc.fund

This article is sourced from the internet: EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation (7.1~7.7): Liquidation intensifies, Asia shorts the US and buys the bottom

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