市场正在跳水。我应该跳进去还是听话先浮出水面？

Original compilation | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

作者：Wenser（ @wenser 2010 )

Editors note: After the market crash in April due to the war situation, the market once again ushered in a periodic dark moment shortly after – according to OKX market data, 比特币 once fell to $5,3296, a 24-hour drop of nearly 10%; 以太坊 once fell to $2,806, a 24-hour drop of more than 10%. Such a huge drop was affected by news such as Mt.Goxs billions of debt claims and the continuous transfer of Bitcoin addresses from the German government, as well as the fact that Bitcoin prices repeatedly broke through the shutdown price of miners and mining companies, Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to net outflow, and some Bitcoin and Ethereum whales were liquidated one after another.

In view of this, Odaily Planet Daily will sort out and summarize the views of some research institutions and individuals in this article for readers reference.

10倍 Research: What should you do when the Bitcoin crash is underway?

As the broader market continued to fall, the well-known research institution 10倍 Research once again published an article stating I told you (I told you a long time ago), and the following is a compiled version of its content:

Once again, 10倍 Research was the only major research firm to predict a price crash (note: of course, this is a self-congratulatory expression that 10倍 is used to) – we made a forecast when the price of Bitcoin triggered $67,300. Even after the Trump effect over the weekend, we warned that this rebound was unsustainable and reiterated our estimated target price of $55,000 and $50,000 for Bitcoin – the current spot price of Bitcoin is $54,000, which is a 20% drop from when we issued the warning signal.

Before Ethereum dropped below $3,725, we reported that a cascading liquidation could occur in the market, causing its price to fall back to the previous price levels that had risen in anticipation of the ETF. These liquidations did not wait long, with futures open interest falling sharply last night. Since the June 7 report, Ethereum has fallen 22% and is currently trading around $2,900.

It is worth noting that now is not the time to rush to buy the bottom, but the time to sit back and let the bears continue to perform.

At the same time, I believe many readers were prepared for this sell-off before, and although we prefer bull markets, sometimes locking in high profits is the right strategy.

There are always opportunities to make money in the crypto market, and our investment approach has proven once again that price movements are predictable and that you can make money whether prices go up or down. Our research has been at the forefront of this decline. (Odaily note: 10倍 tone, you know).

Crypto analyst: mixed feelings with a bit of stubbornness

From the perspective of market cycles, crypto analyst Rekt Capital said in this analysis , In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak on the 518th day after the halving; in the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak on the 546th day after the halving. If history repeats itself, the price peak of the next bull market will appear on the 518th-546th day after the halving, which means that Bitcoin may reach a new round of price peak in mid-September or mid-October 2025. Previously, Bitcoin accelerated to 260 days in this cycle. However, due to the recent consolidation phase of more than 3 months, its acceleration rate has dropped sharply and is now about 150 days. Generally speaking, the longer Bitcoin stays in a consolidation state after the halving, the better the effect of resynchronizing with the traditional halving cycle will be.

Theory of Periodic Structure Synchronization

另一方面， from the perspective of the structure of long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders, Cau锚 Oliveira, head of research and on-chain analyst at BlockTrends, 写道 novice investors are getting into trouble and losing money. During the decline, about $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin (bought in the last 3 to 6 months) was sold during the price decline. This selling pressure came from individuals or organizations that bought Bitcoin at the beginning of the year. This group of people may want to speculate on events such as the Bitcoin spot ETF and Bitcoin halving, but now they may have no choice but to exit. They may be classified as long-term holders, but their actual operations behave more like short-term investors because they entered the market at the beginning of the year (relatively high points). On the other hand, individuals or organizations that have held positions for more than a year have not yet made more selling operations, which shows that real long-term holders are still continuing to HODL.

Amount of Bitcoin transferred within 3 to 6 months

As for the specific long and short operations and whether to buy , the well-known crypto KOL il Capo of Crypto, who used to be firmly short when the market was rising, expressed his belief of firmly holding this time, contrary to his usual practice. He 写道 , The market downturn is indeed more brutal than expected. However, at this point where many people are panicking and selling, I dont think it is appropriate to turn bearish or choose to sell now. Now is the time to broaden your horizons and keep calm. You may make mistakes for a while , but hold firmly. Time will tell.

Summary: Recognize the situation and give up illusions

As Fu Ju, a senior writer of Odaily Planet Daily, wrote in his latest market article Mt.Gox crashes, BTC falls 10% in 24 hours to below $54,000, where is the bottom? , The main reason for this round of downward trend is the Mt.Gox shipment, but the market may have exaggerated its impact.

Mr. Market is sometimes slow, so slow that real news will not ferment in the first place; but sometimes it is sensitive, as sensitive as a frightened bird, thinking that it is powerless at the slightest sign of trouble. But in fact, the most important factors affecting future market trends are the results of the US election and the expectation of the Feds interest rate cut.

Therefore, for market participants, including retail investors and institutions, the best option now may be to switch from long-term thinking to short-term thinking, and perform operations within 6 hours, or even 4 hours or 2 hours, and be more inclined to trend trading, rather than overly worrying about questions that have no fixed answer, such as Is there a bull market in Bitcoin and the market as a whole?

To sum it up, it can be summed up in 16 words – recognize the situation, give up illusions, operate in the short term, and wait for good news.

This article is sourced from the internet: The market is taking a dive. Should I dive in or be obedient and get out of the water first?

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