Matrixport Market Observation: The macro market has entered a low volatility cycle, and ETH may rebound from the bottom

In the past week, BTC fluctuated in a narrow range around $100,000, with a maximum fluctuation of 3.86% during the week. The current price fluctuates around $95,000. After the market sentiment of ETH hit the bottom, affected by the community sentiment and the hulezhi incident, the market attention increased significantly. The price of ETH reached a maximum of $2,849.70, an increase of 11.88% during the week. The current price of ETH fluctuates in the range of $2,600-$2,700 (Binance spot real-time data at 17:00 on the 18th).

The macro market has entered a low volatility cycle, with high growth, low inflation and lower interest rates coexisting. Trumps inauguration did not bring the strong catalytic effect predicted by the market. The US dollar index fluctuated and then fell back. The volatile tariff policy also gradually made the market immune. In contrast, the market expects Trumps meeting with Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible.

市場 分析

The Feds June rate cut expectations have risen to 60%, and inflation remains the current focus

In the past week, the release of core economic data has pushed up market expectations for a rate cut in June. Against the backdrop of higher-than-expected CPI data and weak retail sales data, expectations for a rate cut have risen to 60%. Inflation remains an important focus of the current market, and the Federal Reserve is committed to reducing market concerns about inflation.

Powell said, The CPI data is higher than almost all forecasts, but I want to remind you two points. First, we will not be overly optimistic because of one or two good data, nor will we be overly pessimistic because of one or two bad data. Second, our inflation target focuses on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index because we believe it can better reflect the inflation situation.

Trumps erratic tariff policy further boosts gold prices, and demand for gold delivery is strong

Golds primary safe-haven status remains strong and has become the primary tool for hedging inflation. Over the past 25 years, gold prices have risen by 10%, and there is strong demand for spot gold delivery. According to Bloomberg, the amount of gold transferred by financial institutions to COMEX-approved vaults in the United States has increased by 70%+ compared to usual.

Trumps erratic tariff policy and the Feds attitude towards inflation have further boosted the markets demand for gold. In this regard, Nikos Zabullas, a senior financial commentator at Tradu, said, In the uncertain era of Trump 2.0, gold will naturally benefit from risk aversion and central bank purchases. However, if inflation rebounds, the Fed will adopt more cautious monetary policy easing measures, which may push up the dollar and curb gold demand.

ETH market trading sentiment is pessimistic, and a dead cat bounce may be coming

Over the past 25 years, the price of ETH has fallen by more than 20%, and the actual volatility has also performed poorly among 加密貨幣 assets and major stock indices. The market sentiment towards ETH has also hit rock bottom recently. Based on ETHs strong application scenarios and Trumps World Liberty Financials continued purchase of ETH, ETH does not rule out the possibility of a dead cat bounce.

Since this week, ETH has also rebounded relatively strongly, with the highest increase of ETH this week exceeding 11%. With the community regaining interest in ETH and the conversion from SOL to ETH, the disadvantages of Meme coins in the market with insufficient liquidity have become apparent, and the ETH ecosystem with strong usage attributes may rebound.

Market Hotspots

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates for the first time in 4 years, and the hawkish remarks led to a significant decline in the stock market

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the first rate cut since November 2020, to a new low since October 2023, in line with market expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia said there are signs that inflation may fall faster than expected. It is believed that if interest rates are cut too quickly, there will be a risk of stagnant inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia said: While todays policy decision recognizes the encouraging progress on inflation, the committee remains cautious about the prospects for further policy easing and will continue to rely on data and dynamic assessments of risks to 指導 its decisions. After the resolution was announced, the Australian dollar rose briefly before giving up its gains. Australian stocks fell due to hawkish remarks.

BTC market adoption increases, 12 U.S. state pension funds or treasuries hold a total of $330 million worth of Strategy shares

Cointelegraph reported that by the end of 2024, 12 states in North America reported that their state pension funds or treasuries held Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares MSTR, totaling US$330 million.

Pension funds and treasuries in California, Florida, Wisconsin and North Carolina have the largest exposure to MSTR, with California State Teachers’ Retirement System holding 285,785 shares of MSTR, worth about $83 million, ranking first. Other states that hold MSTR in their public funds include Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Texas and Utah.

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