Interpreting market trends from multiple angles: Is a good time to buy Bitcoin coming?

Original author: HighFreedom (X: @highFree 2028 )

From the recent period to around January 5 next year, this time window may gradually enter a better time to buy Bitcoin:

1. Macro dollar liquidity: The regular decline in short-term liquidity (liquidity squeeze) at the end of the year has led to a short-term surge in SOFR, squeezing risky assets.

It is expected that liquidity will recover around January 4 (at which time SOFR will be lower than EFFR again, and the same trend will occur at the end of 2023, and SOFR will return to normal on January 4, 2024).

Specifically, the logical chain is: in order to cope with regulatory compliance at the end of the year, financial institutions began to reduce leverage and increase cash or cash equivalents -> market liquidity was withdrawn in the short term -> less money led to a surge in ultra-short-term financing rates -> strategies in the U.S. stock market that are extremely sensitive to short-term interest rates were squeezed and forced to close positions -> U.S. stocks were squeezed -> Bitcoin was squeezed as well.

2. Large Account Situation:

BTC on-chain: Long-term holders’ LTH shipments have almost stopped from the large-scale shipments after the main uptrend after the election (a total of 1 million BTC shipped) to now, and the trend of large holders selling has stopped.

Bitfinex big holders: started to buy BTC spot at a positive premium of about 0.2%

Bitfinex leveraged long BTC position: starting to increase positions from the evening of the 28th

3. The Americans start working:

There has been almost no additional issuance of USDT at the $1 billion level recently, and it is almost confirmed that MSTR has not bought any coins. It is expected that Americans will start to return to work and continue to buy coins after January 1st (MSTR is a bit of an exception. In the optimistic case, there will be a two-week blackout period from January 14th to February 5th when earning calls cannot be financed to buy coins; in the pessimistic case, there will be a four-week blackout period from January 1st to February 5th when earning calls cannot be financed to buy coins)

4. The callback has bottomed out:

The price has bottomed out around 92-93 many times, and has already experienced a 20% correction from the high of 108,000 to 92,000. In this round of bull market, except for the 8/5 black swan event, which had a 30% correction, the basic correction range is around 20% at most.

5. Foam extrusion is relatively clean:

Even though the US stock market fell last Friday mainly due to short-term liquidity squeeze, with the Nasdaq falling by 2% at most, I observed that Bitcoin was only around 93 at the time and fell by a little more than 2%, which gave me a clear feeling that the bubble was squeezed out more cleanly.

6. On the market: In the past one or two days, there have been some relatively dense and large orders in Binance spot.

7. Shanzhai: It seems like it’s going to fail

風險 :

1. Whether the BOJ will raise interest rates by 25 bps on January 23rd is a sharp sword hanging over their heads. Officials of the Japanese Financial Services Agency are generally inclined to skip the rate hike, but their stance is rather ambiguous and we can only continue to observe. The market now prices the probability of a rate hike at about 40%. In addition, the JPY/USD exchange rate is once again approaching 160 (currently 157.88 at the time of writing, approaching 158). If it reaches 160, it may challenge the BOJs bottom line to a certain extent again, which may increase the probability of a rate hike.

Question: I would like to ask everyone, the negative premium of BTC on Coinbase is very high recently, is this a good signal or a bad signal?

原文連結

This article is sourced from the internet: Interpreting market trends from multiple angles: Is a good time to buy Bitcoin coming?

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