Crypto Market Macro Research Report: With the rise of strategic reserves, Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000. Where will the

一、簡介

At the end of 2024, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeded $100,000 for the first time. This is not only an important milestone in the history of 加密貨幣currency, but also a microcosm of global economic and policy changes. The rise of Bitcoin marks the gradual transition of a new asset class from the margins to the mainstream, becoming the focus of global investors. This article will comprehensively analyze the driving forces behind Bitcoins breakthrough of $100,000, including the macroeconomic situation, technological innovation, institutional participation and policy support, especially the profound impact of the US governments crypto-friendly policies on this process. At the same time, this article also explores the potential of Bitcoin as a global strategic reserve asset in the future and possible risks and challenges.

2. Background and Current Situation

2.1 Bitcoin’s historic breakthrough: milestones and symbolic significance

The birth of Bitcoin has changed people’s perception of currency and assets. From the release of the Bitcoin white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009 to the Bitcoin price exceeding $100,000 in 2024, this decentralized asset has experienced a leap from an experimental product to a mainstream financial asset.

The breakthrough of Bitcoin price above $100,000 is the result of multiple factors, including changes in the macroeconomic environment, the influx of institutional investors, the advancement of blockchain technology, and the continuous strengthening of policy support. In particular, the crypto-friendly policies introduced by the US government have provided strong policy endorsement for the rise of Bitcoin. In addition, this price breakthrough of Bitcoin is not just an isolated event in the financial market. It is closely related to geopolitics, global economic competition and technological innovation trends. In this context, the role of Bitcoin has gone beyond investment tools and has become part of financial reform and national strategy.

At the end of 2024, the price of Bitcoin reached the $100,000 mark. This price level is regarded as a ceiling with both psychological and technical significance, and has formed strong resistance in the market many times before. Breaking through $100,000 not only represents the improvement of investor confidence, but also symbolizes that Bitcoin has gradually transitioned from a speculative asset to a strategic asset. There are profound macroeconomic and market logic behind its price growth. The rapid rise in the price of Bitcoin from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024 benefited from support from many aspects: first, the increase in uncertainty in the global economy led to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets; second, the large-scale entry of institutional investors has formed a structural impetus for the market; finally, the relaxation of cryptocurrency policies in major economies such as the United States has injected confidence into the market. All this has turned Bitcoin from a technological innovation project into an important part of the global financial system.

2.2 The US encryption policy shift: new situation and new opportunities

In the past few years, the United States has gradually adjusted its regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies, shifting from early uncertainty and contradictions to a more open and friendly stance. In 2024, the US government issued the Digital Asset Framework Act, which clarified the legal status of cryptocurrencies and provided clear guidance on their trading, holding, and taxation. At the same time, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are also actively promoting digital assets represented by Bitcoin to enter the discussion scope of strategic reserve assets. This shift not only consolidates the United States leadership in the global digital economy, but also lays a policy foundation for the continued rise in Bitcoin prices.

3. The core driving force behind Bitcoin’s breakthrough of $100,000

The rise in Bitcoin prices is the result of a combination of factors. From macroeconomics to market behavior, from technological innovation to policy support, here is an analysis of the core driving forces that are driving Bitcoin towards $100,000:

3.1 Macroeconomic environment: the interweaving of uncertainty and risk aversion demand

3.1.1 Inflationary pressure and depreciation of the US dollar

Since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, central banks around the world have implemented large-scale quantitative easing policies, and the money supply has increased dramatically. This policy has led to increased global inflation, especially a significant decline in the real purchasing power of the US dollar. In this environment, Bitcoin is considered an effective inflation hedge due to its fixed supply characteristics. Institutional investors such as Bridgewater Associates regard Bitcoin as digital gold and believe that it can provide a robust store of value during periods of high inflation. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global average inflation rate reached 5.8% in 2023, the highest level in nearly a decade. In this context, Bitcoin is regarded as a new type of digital gold due to its constant supply and anti-inflation properties.

3.1.2 Geopolitical uncertainty

Geopolitical instability has also contributed to the rise in Bitcoin prices. From the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the US-China trade war, global investors are looking for decentralized safe-haven assets that are not subject to national policy intervention. Bitcoin just meets this demand. In particular, investors and companies in some geopolitically sensitive regions are increasingly choosing Bitcoin as a tool for cross-border transfer of funds and value storage.

3.1.3 Challenges to US dollar hegemony

Although the US dollar is still the worlds main reserve currency, its long-term depreciation trend has led central banks and sovereign funds to explore alternative reserve assets. Bitcoin has been incorporated into the foreign exchange reserve strategies of some countries, such as El Salvador and some countries in the Middle East, due to its decentralized and censorship-resistant characteristics. The status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency has been challenged in recent years. On the one hand, emerging market countries such as China and Russia are actively promoting the process of de-dollarization; on the other hand, Bitcoin provides these countries with a reserve and payment tool that replaces the US dollar. For example, after El Salvador listed Bitcoin as legal tender, many countries are also observing the feasibility of this model.

3.2 Technological progress and expansion of application ecology

3.2.1 Efficiency Improvement Brought by Technological Upgrade

The Bitcoin network has undergone several technical upgrades in recent years, such as the Taproot upgrade and the popularity of the Lightning Network. Taproot improves Bitcoins privacy and smart contract capabilities, while the Lightning Network makes small payments more efficient. These technological advances have enhanced the application scenarios of Bitcoin, making it no longer limited to value storage, but an actual payment tool.

3.2.2 Integration of Web3 and DeFi Ecosystem

With the rapid development of Web3 and DeFi (decentralized finance), the use cases of Bitcoin are expanding in a diversified direction. For example, in the DeFi protocol, BTC is widely used as a collateral asset, and it has also become an important asset bridge in the cross-chain ecosystem. This diversified application has further increased the demand for Bitcoin.

3.3 Promotion from Institutional Investors

2.3.1 ETF and the influx of institutional funds

The United States has approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, providing a convenient investment channel for institutions and ordinary investors. Asset management companies such as Blackstone and Grayscale have attracted tens of billions of dollars in capital inflows through ETFs, providing direct support for the rise in Bitcoin prices.

3.3.2 Bitcoin strategies of large companies

Large companies such as Tesla and MicroStrategy have not only included Bitcoin in their balance sheets, but have also publicly supported Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Such moves have further enhanced Bitcoins market recognition and credibility.

3.4 Changes in U.S. Encryption Policy

The adjustment of US crypto policy can be said to be the catalyst for Bitcoins price to break through $100,000. The friendly policy reduces the policy risks of investors and also provides a more stable regulatory environment for cryptocurrency exchanges and institutional participants.

4. The United States’ Crypto-Friendly Policy: Profound Impact on Bitcoin

The United States passed a series of crypto-friendly policies involving tax incentives, legal protections, and infrastructure construction in 2024. These policies not only accelerated the mainstreaming of Bitcoin, but also consolidated the United States leadership in the global digital economy.

4.1 Tax policies and investment incentives

The United States has introduced a tax exemption policy for long-term Bitcoin holdings. According to the new policy, Bitcoin gains held for more than 3 years will enjoy a 50% capital gains tax exemption. This move encourages investors to hold Bitcoin for the long term while reducing short-term market volatility.

4.2 Infrastructure investment and technical support

The U.S. government has invested billions of dollars in developing blockchain infrastructure, including green energy mines and digital asset data centers. The construction of these infrastructures has improved the security and sustainability of the Bitcoin network and enhanced investor confidence.

4.3 Clarification of the regulatory framework

Through the Digital Asset Framework Act, the United States clarified the legal status of Bitcoin as a digital asset. This clarity reduces regulatory uncertainty and paves the way for more funds to enter the market.

5. Bitcoin’s potential as a global strategic reserve asset

After breaking through $100,000, Bitcoin has gradually been seen as a viable global strategic reserve asset. This trend is not only driven by the market, but also by profound changes in the global economic and policy environment.

5.1 Bitcoin’s digital gold status

The supply of Bitcoin is strictly limited to 21 million, which makes it similar to gold in scarcity. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin has gradually replaced gold with its anti-inflation properties and become a new value storage tool. Since 2020, the growth rate of gold reserves of major central banks around the world has slowed, while the adoption rate of Bitcoin has continued to rise. The 2024 report of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) pointed out that Bitcoin is challenging the traditional safe-haven asset market.

5.2 Institutional and national adoption

Since El Salvador listed Bitcoin as legal tender, several emerging economies are actively exploring the inclusion of Bitcoin in their national reserves. Many countries in the Middle East, Africa and other regions have begun to use Bitcoin as part of their foreign exchange reserves due to the poor stability of legal currencies. At the same time, the behavior of companies like MicroStrategy holding a high proportion of Bitcoin in their financial reports has also indirectly promoted national attention.

5.3 New paradigm of global settlement and payment

Bitcoin is becoming a new option for international settlement and cross-border payments. Compared with traditional payment systems (such as SWIFT), Bitcoin has higher efficiency and lower costs. Countries restricted by sanctions, such as Russia and Iran, have tried to use Bitcoin in energy transactions. This trend shows that Bitcoin is expected to become a tool to bypass financial sanctions, thereby enhancing its position in international trade.

6. The multi-dimensional impact of the US crypto-friendly policy

The United States crypto-friendly policies have not only driven up the price of Bitcoin, but have also profoundly changed the global crypto ecosystem in multiple dimensions.

6.1 Consolidating the status of a global financial center

Through a clear legal framework and policies that encourage innovation, the United States has attracted a large number of blockchain companies and investors. For example, the listing of cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase and the regulatory support behind them have enabled the United States to take a leading position in the global crypto-financial market.

6.2 Promoting the layout of institutional investors

The improvement of the regulatory environment in the United States has made it possible for large institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin market. Traditional financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock have launched financial products related to Bitcoin. This not only provides more liquidity to the market, but also increases the credibility of Bitcoin as an asset class.

6.3 Promoting the symbiosis between USD and Bitcoin

Although Bitcoin is seen as a tool to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar to a certain extent, the United States has cleverly tied Bitcoin to the US dollar through crypto-friendly policies. For example, Bitcoin ETFs denominated in US dollars have become mainstream, and this design has both promoted the development of the Bitcoin market and consolidated the core position of the US dollar.

7. Future risks and challenges of Bitcoin

Although Bitcoins prospects seem bright, as an emerging asset class, it still faces many risks and challenges.

7.1 市場 波動風險

The high volatility of Bitcoin prices makes it difficult to completely replace gold or other reserve assets. Even if it breaks through $100,000, the sharp market fluctuations may still trigger a large-scale sell-off, leading to a price collapse. The market turmoil caused by the FTX incident in 2023 is a lesson for us.

7.2 Technical and security risks

Although the security of the Bitcoin network has been widely recognized, there are still potential threats at the technical level. For example, the development of quantum computing technology may undermine the encryption security of Bitcoin. In addition, the centralization of miners will also weaken the decentralized nature of the network.

7.3 Policy and regulatory pressure

Although the US policy is friendly, the regulatory attitudes of other countries are not consistent. For example, Chinas tough ban on cryptocurrencies has caused a large number of miners to relocate. In the future, the uncertainty of the global regulatory environment will still be a major risk for the Bitcoin market.

7.4 Environmental and social pressures

Bitcoin mining consumes a lot of energy, which has caused widespread controversy in society. Although more and more mining farms are turning to renewable energy, the problem of inefficient energy use has not been completely solved.

8. Investment advice and outlook

8.1 Investors’ strategic layout

After Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, investors should adopt a more diversified strategy. On the one hand, long-term investors can continue to hold Bitcoin and regard it as digital gold; on the other hand, short-term investors need to pay close attention to market fluctuations and macroeconomic factors and adjust their investment portfolios in a timely manner.

8.2 Strategic Application of Enterprises

For enterprises, Bitcoin is not only a new type of reserve tool in the balance sheet, but also a means of payment and incentive mechanism. For example, using Bitcoin for international settlement or employee incentives will become an important means for enterprises to enhance their competitiveness.

8.3 Looking ahead to future prices and values

The long-term growth potential of Bitcoin prices is still huge. According to the Bloomberg Crypto Research Center, the price of Bitcoin may reach $250,000 by 2030. However, its real value lies not only in its price, but in the new financial order it has built.

IX. Conclusion and Outlook: Bitcoin’s Globalization Process and Future

Bitcoins breakthrough of $100,000 marks a new stage in its globalization process. From speculative assets to strategic reserves, Bitcoin is reshaping the global financial system. The United States crypto-friendly policies have provided important support for this transformation, but whether Bitcoin can truly become a global reserve asset in the future requires a balance between technology, regulation and the market. On the other hand, Bitcoins breakthrough of $100,000 and the United States crypto-friendly policies mark that this digital asset has entered the core area of mainstream finance and national strategy. The future of Bitcoin will be affected by multiple factors, including technological progress, policy support and changes in the global economic environment. Despite the challenges, Bitcoins potential as digital gold cannot be ignored, and its position in the global financial system will continue to improve.

As the global economy continues to transform towards digitalization, the role of Bitcoin will become even more important. Whether as a safe-haven asset or as a payment tool, Bitcoin is moving step by step to the center of the mainstream financial stage. Investors, companies and policymakers need to work together to find the best balance between risks and opportunities to promote the continued development of this digital asset.

This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Macro Research Report: With the rise of strategic reserves, Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000. Where will the US crypto-friendly policies lead Bitcoin?

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