Bitwises top ten predictions for 2025: The first year of crypto IPOs, Bitcoin will exceed $200,000

Original article by Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise

Original translation: Yuliya, PANews

2024 has been a landmark year for the 加密貨幣currency market. Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $103,992 (up 141.72% year-to-date as of writing), driven primarily by a record issuance of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, which attracted $33.56 billion in assets. Other major crypto assets also saw huge gains: Solana rose 127.71%, XRP rose 285.23%, and Ethereum rose 75.77%. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency-related stocks such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase surged 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively.

Record prices aren’t the only noteworthy development. Cryptocurrencies have clearly gained the upper hand in the 2024 U.S. election, which has made the outlook for cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. brighter. President-elect Trump supported cryptocurrencies during his campaign, promising to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin and reorganize the SEC (an agency that has historically been hostile to cryptocurrencies). He also nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, who has said that cryptocurrencies represent freedom and the crypto economy will exist for a long time. Going into 2024, Congress has also clearly leaned in favor of cryptocurrencies, with pro-cryptocurrency candidates defeating opponents in several key elections. Expect to see pro-cryptocurrency legislation in the coming months.

Driven by global stimulus policies from China and other major central banks, growing institutional adoption, and rapid improvements in blockchain technology, the outlook for 2025 looks pretty bright.

長話短說

01: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000.

02: Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2025 will exceed 2024.

03: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the worlds most valuable brokerage firm, and its stock price will exceed $700 per share.

04: 2025 will become the first year of crypto IPO, and at least five crypto unicorn companies will be listed in the United States.

05: 代幣s issued by AI agents will lead to a meme coin craze that is larger than in 2024.

06: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double.

07: Coinbase will enter the SP 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100, adding cryptocurrency exposure to the portfolio of (almost) every American investor.

08: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its 指導lines on cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans, allowing hundreds of billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets.

09: As the United States passes the long-awaited stablecoin legislation, the size of stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion.

10: As Wall Street’s acceptance of cryptocurrencies deepens, the value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) will exceed $50 billion.

Bonus prediction: Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market and trade at over $1 million per coin by 2029

Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs, and Bitcoin will break $200,000

The cryptocurrency trio – Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana – outperformed all major asset classes in 2024, rising 141.72%, 75.77%, and 127.71%, respectively. In comparison, the SP 500 rose 28.07%, gold rose 27.65%, and bonds rose 3.40%.

This momentum is expected to continue until 2025, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all hitting new all-time highs. The specific target prices are as follows:

Bitcoin: $200,000

Record ETF inflows push Bitcoin to new highs in 2024

This trend is expected to continue

Halving in April 2024 will reduce new supply

New buying demand from businesses and governments

If the US government implements its proposal to establish a 1 million Bitcoin strategic reserve, the price could reach $500,000 or more

Ethereum: $7,000

Despite a 75.77% gain in 2024, Ethereum’s popularity among investors has declined

Expect the narrative to shift in 2025

Drivers include:

• Layer 2 blockchains such as Base and Starknet are seeing an acceleration in activity

• Spot Ethereum ETF will attract billions of dollars in inflows

• Massive growth of stablecoins and tokenized projects on Ethereum

Solana: $750

Strong recovery in 2024 driven by Meme coin craze

Momentum expected to continue to build

The catalyst for 2025 will be the migration of “serious” projects to the web

There are early cases, such as the migration of the Render project

This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming year

Catalyst

Institutional investment increased

Companies continue to buy

Investment bank approves cryptocurrency business

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan

Better regulatory and political environment

Bitcoin halving tightens supply

Layer-2 Scaling Solutions

Macro positives (rate cuts, China stimulus)

Increased allocation ratio (3% becomes the new 1% standard)

Potential downsides

Washingtons policies are disappointing

Risk of margin call

Government sell-off

Meme coin craze fails

Interest rate cuts less than expected

Prediction 2: Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2025 will exceed 2024

When the US spot Bitcoin ETF was launched in January 2024, ETF experts predicted that the product group would attract inflows of $5 billion to $15 billion in the first year. In fact, the upper end of the expected range was exceeded within the first six months. Since its launch, these record-breaking ETFs have attracted inflows of $33.6 billion. Inflows are expected to exceed this figure in 2025. Three reasons support this prediction:

1. The first year is usually the slowest year for ETFs

The best historical analogy for Bitcoin ETFs is the launch of gold ETFs in 2004

Gold ETFs attracted an inflow of $2.6 billion that year, which was exciting.

But here are the results from the following years (figures adjusted for inflation):

• Year 2: $5.5 billion

• Year 3: $7.6 billion

• Year 4: $8.7 billion

• Year 5: $16.8 billion

• Year 6: $28.9 billion

The key point is: the second years capital inflow exceeds the first years in line with the development law of gold ETFs, and the reduction of capital inflow is unusual.

2. Major investment banks are joining

The worlds largest investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, have yet to unleash the power of their wealth management teams.

These products are currently largely inaccessible to these financial managers

This is expected to change by 2025.

Trillions of dollars managed by these firms will start flowing into Bitcoin ETFs

3. Investors are gradually increasing their allocations – 1% becomes 3% and becomes a new trend

Bitwise has observed a clear pattern over the past seven years of helping investment professionals enter the cryptocurrency market:

• Most investors start with a small allocation and then gradually increase it over time.

• It is expected that most investors who bought Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will double their investment in 2025

Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world’s most valuable brokerage firm and its stock price will surpass $700 per share

At the beginning of 2023, investors could buy Coinbase shares for $35. Today, the stock price is $344, a nearly 10-fold increase. Forecasts show that this price could continue to rise, and the increase could be significant.

Prediction: Coinbase stock will surpass $700 (more than double its current price) by 2025. This would make Coinbase the most valuable brokerage firm in the world, surpassing Charles Schwab.

Here’s why: Coinbase is more than just a brokerage firm.

There are three main catalysts driving its development:

1. Stablecoin business

Coinbase’s stablecoin business is booming thanks to a deal with USDC issuer Circle

Year-to-date, stablecoin revenue grew by $162 million (+31%)

If the trajectory of stablecoins meets expectations, this trend will continue

2. Base Network

Last year, Coinbase launched a new Layer 2 network, Base

Currently ranks first among L2 networks in terms of transaction volume and total locked value

With growth comes significant revenue

Base now generates tens of millions of dollars in revenue per quarter

This revenue is expected to grow as more developers, users, and capital enter the ecosystem.

3. Pledge and Custody Services

As of the third quarter, the two businesses generated $589 million in revenue

An increase of $304 million (+106%) compared to the same period last year

Both businesses were driven by asset balances and net new asset inflows

Both indicators are expected to increase significantly by 2025

These business lines are expected to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue

Prediction 4: 2025 will be the first year of cryptocurrency IPOs, and at least five crypto unicorns will be listed in the United States

IPOs in the cryptocurrency space have been relatively quiet over the past few years, but 2025 is expected to usher in a wave of crypto unicorn IPOs.

為什麼是現在？

The background of current listed cryptocurrency companies is significantly different from previous years:

• Cryptocurrency prices rise

• Growing investor demand

• Institutional adoption surges

• Blockchain technology has gone mainstream

• Favorable macro environment

• Most importantly, the political environment has warmed

These factors together create favorable conditions for industry giants to go public.

Five potential IPO candidates for 2025:

1. Circle

• Issuer of USDC (one of the largest stablecoins)

• Actively preparing for listing

• Strong position in the stablecoin market

• Expanding into new financial services

2. Figure

• Well-known for providing various financial services using blockchain technology

• Providing mortgage loans, personal loans and asset tokenization services

• Exploring IPO possibilities since 2023

• As Wall Street’s attention to tokenization grows, the time may be ripe

3. Kraken

• One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States

• Considering IPO since 2021

• Plan postponed due to market conditions

• 2025 may see renewed momentum

4. Anchorage Digital

• Providing digital asset infrastructure services

• Diverse client base, including investment advisors, asset managers and venture capital firms

• Federally chartered bank

• Comprehensive crypto services could prompt it to seek an IPO

5. Chainalysis

• 市場 leader in blockchain compliance and intelligence services

• Unique service offering

• Good growth trajectory

• As the crypto industry pays more attention to compliance requirements, it is very likely to enter the public market

Prediction 5: Tokens issued by AI agents will lead to a meme coin boom that is even larger than in 2024

It is expected that there will be a larger meme coin craze in 2025 than in 2024, and tokens issued by AI agents will be the leaders of this craze.

GOAT Case: The First Collision of AI and 模因幣

A striking case came from the interaction between Marc Andreessen of a16z and the autonomous chatbot Truth Terminal. The AI agent promoted a niche meme coin called GOAT. This project, which started as an experimental project, eventually had a market value of over $1.3 billion, fully demonstrating the huge potential of combining AI with meme coins.

Clanker: A groundbreaking AI token issuance platform

Clanker is an innovative platform that enables autonomous token deployment on Coinbase’s Layer 2 scaling solution, Base.

Users only need to tag Clanker on Farcaster and provide a token name and image, and the AI agent will automatically complete the token deployment.

In just one month after going live, Clanker has issued over 11,000 tokens and generated over $10.3 million in fee revenue.

未來展望

AI-issued tokens are expected to drive a new round of Meme coin craze in 2025. Although these tokens may lack practical application value and most may eventually return to zero, they represent the fusion of two breakthrough technologies, AI and cryptocurrency, and this innovative development direction will continue to attract market attention.

Prediction 6: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double

Outlook for the U.S. Strategic Reserve

There is still uncertainty as to whether the United States will establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin in 2025. Although there are positive signals:

• Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill that would require the U.S. to purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years

• President-elect Trump supports the proposal

• But according to Polymarkets forecast, this possibility is less than 30%

Global competition

The United Statess move to consider establishing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin has already triggered a chain reaction around the world:

• Lawmakers from Poland to Brazil are proposing bills to create their own strategic Bitcoin reserves

• Governments are accelerating their deployment to avoid missing out on opportunities

Current Status and Future Outlook

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net:

• Nine countries around the world currently hold Bitcoin, with the United States leading the way

• This number is expected to double by 2025

Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the SP 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100

Coinbase and MicroStrategy, two major public companies in the cryptocurrency space, will be included in mainstream stock indexes, meaning that almost all U.S. investor portfolios will gain exposure to the cryptocurrency sector.

Market Status

The average U.S. investor currently has no exposure to cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency is an emerging asset class that many investors either do not understand or actively choose to avoid.

But almost every investor owns a fund that tracks the SP 500 or the Nasdaq 100.

Many investors hold both types of index funds

Potential impact

Once these two companies are included in the index, it will have a huge market impact:

• About $10 trillion in assets directly track the SP 500

• Another $6 trillion in assets are benchmarked to the index

• Expected inflows after Coinbase inclusion:

• Index funds need to buy about $15 billion in stocks

• Benchmark funds could bring in an additional $9 billion in buying demand

• MicroStrategy will be less affected due to the smaller size of the Nasdaq 100s tracking funds, but will still have a significant impact

Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance on cryptocurrency restrictions in 401(k) plans

In March 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor issued guidance warning 401(k) plan trustees of the significant risks of cryptocurrency investment options and announced that it would launch an investigation project to protect plan participants from these risks.

With the arrival of a new administration in Washington, the Department of Labor is expected to relax this strict guidance. The importance of this policy change can be seen in the data:

US 401(k) plans currently manage $8 trillion in assets

These funds continue to receive new weekly inflows of capital

If the allocation ratio of cryptocurrency reaches:

• 1%: Will bring $80 billion in new funds to the cryptocurrency sector

• 3%: $240 billion in new funding

Prediction 9: Stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion, and the United States will pass long-awaited stablecoin legislation

The stablecoin market will boom in 2025, with a market capitalization of $400 billion or more. This growth will be driven by the following key factors:

Stablecoin legislation

The lowest hanging fruit for pro-crypto policymakers in Washington is passing comprehensive stablecoin legislation. This would answer important questions, including who regulates and what the appropriate reserve requirements are. Clear regulations would spark huge interest from issuers, consumers, and businesses. Large traditional banks such as JPMorgan Chase are expected to enter the space.

Fintech Integration

Stripe acquired the stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion, saying that stablecoins have become superconductors of financial services with their speed, accessibility and low cost. PayPal will launch its own stablecoin (PYUSD) in 2023, and Robinhood recently announced plans to work with several cryptocurrency companies to launch a global stablecoin network. As stablecoins are integrated into popular fintech applications, the scale of stablecoin managed assets and transaction volume will grow significantly.

Global Trade and Remittances

Stablecoin transactions will reach $8.3 trillion in 2024, close to Visas $9.9 trillion in payments during the same period. Stablecoin giant Tether recently financed a $45 million oil trade with its USDT stablecoin. As digital dollars continue to disrupt these massive markets, demand for stablecoins will continue to grow.

Bull Market Growth

As the most obvious catalyst, the overall expansion of the cryptocurrency market will drive the growth of stablecoin assets under management. The cryptocurrency market is bullish in 2025, and the stablecoin market will also grow with it.

Prediction 10: As Wall Street accelerates its entry, the scale of RWA tokenization will exceed US$50 billion

Three years ago, the cryptocurrency industry tokenized less than $2 billion in real-world assets (RWAs), including private credit, U.S. debt, commodities, and stocks. Today, the market has reached $13.7 billion.

Tokenization has seen such phenomenal growth primarily due to its clear advantages: it offers instant settlement, significantly lower costs than traditional securitization, and 24/7 liquidity, while bringing transparency and accessibility to nearly all asset classes.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has transformed from a former Bitcoin skeptic to a staunch supporter of tokenization. He said that security tokenization will become the next generation of the market. These words from the head of the worlds largest asset management company are of great significance.

Wall Street is only beginning to realize this, which means a lot of institutional money could soon be pouring into the tokenized RWA space.

The tokenized RWA market is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025, with the potential to grow exponentially from there.

Venture capital firm ParaFi recently predicted that the tokenized RWA market could grow to $2 trillion by 2030, while the Global Financial Markets Association predicts it could reach $16 trillion.

Additional prediction: Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market in 2029, with a unit price exceeding $1 million

While people tend to make one-year predictions, the longer-term outlook for Bitcoin is even more impressive.

It is expected that the market value of Bitcoin will surpass the gold market by 2029. Based on the current market value of gold, this means that the price of each Bitcoin will exceed $1 million.

The year 2029 was chosen for a reason: Bitcoin has historically operated in four-year cycles. While this pattern won’t necessarily continue, 2029 will mark the apex of the next cycle (and Bitcoin’s 20th anniversary). Outperforming the gold market within 20 years of its launch is undoubtedly a major achievement, but Bitcoin is on track to achieve this goal.

It is worth noting that if the United States announces the purchase of 1 million 比特幣s to build a strategic reserve, the time for the price of Bitcoin to break through $1 million may be greatly advanced.

This article is sourced from the internet: Bitwises top ten predictions for 2025: The first year of crypto IPOs, Bitcoin will exceed $200,000

Related: The more you sell it, the more valuable it is, whats the reason for the surge in MSTR premium?

In the past few days, both the U.S. stock market and the crypto market have been dazzled by MSTR. In the latest wave of Bitcoins market, MSTR not only took the lead in leading the rise, but also continued to maintain a premium growth over Bitcoin for a period of time. Its price has also soared from US$120 a week or two ago to the current US$247. Most people in the market still interpret MSTRs surge as leveraged Bitcoin. However, this does not seem to explain why MSTRs premium suddenly soared when the fundamentals of issuing bonds to buy coins remained unchanged. After all, MicroStrategy has been buying coins for so many years, and has never seen such a high premium. In fact, the recent surge in MSTR premium, in…