德更斯組成的加密世界何時才能走出黑暗？

文章原文作者： Sankalp Shangari , 加密KOL

原文翻譯：Felix，PANews

For the past decade, we’ve been preaching the dream that cryptocurrency will revolutionize the world, solve real-world problems, and welcome a massive influx of Web2 users into this bold new world. But let’s be honest, cryptocurrency hasn’t quite lived up to that promise. Instead, we’ve collectively become thrill-seeking Degens, constantly shuttling between various Ponzi schemes like squirrels on espresso.

This reality was perfectly displayed at 代幣 2049’s 500+ side events. Projects are so overfunded that marketing budgets are larger than actual revenue (if any), and flashy booths and five-star venues mask the reality of minimal user adoption. VCs who once poured billions into anything with a white paper are now silent. The good news? Only serious projects are getting funded now. The bad news? It took the crypto industry so long to get to this point.

We’ve seen over 100 L1/L2s all vying for the same crypto audience — with less engagement and fewer meaningful conversations. We went from Solana to Ethereum memes, then Base, and now Justin Sun playing Icarus, flying dangerously into the sun. This is great for short-term drama, but where is the long-term vision? Where is the promised mass adoption? Jumping from one meme to another, from one chain to another, this is not real business.

Over the years, we have gone from ICO hype to DeFi yield farms, from NFT mania to GameFi distribution Ponzi scheme, PoS staking, re-staking schemes to now Bitcoin re-staking (really?), and finally to points and airdrop pyramids. Whats the next gimmick? People I talk to are very worried about the direction of this industry. A lot of things are happening, but nothing is fruitful.

VCs are frustrated because they didn’t anticipate the Memecoin craze and they can’t touch the space with regulated funds. Founders are complaining because VCs are no longer funding every “weed” in the garden, just hoping that one of them will grow into a “rose”. Degens are tired of jumping from one narrative to another, and Farmers are frustrated that airdrops and points don’t bring free wealth (Grass, Eigen, Blast, etc.). The only ones who can laugh are those who are in trading (CEX, DEX, maybe), gambling (Rollbit, Shuffle, Polymarket, memecoins), and the infrastructure that supports it all. This is evident in the F1 sponsorships, large booths, and multi-million marketing budgets.

Meanwhile, AI and stocks are coming into focus as Nvidia stock offers crypto-like returns with higher returns, lower risk, tighter regulation, access through fiat currencies, and simpler UI/UX. Smart TradFi money earns returns from stocks with far less risk (yes, I know stocks are risky, but look at the promise of crypto). Why bother investing in crypto when you can buy options on MSTR or COIN to get exposure?

Well, it’s not all doom and gloom. There is still light at the end of the tunnel. Some talented founders continue to receive funding, and real-world use cases with real revenue potential are starting to emerge. Thankfully, VCs are becoming more selective, and we’re seeing more and more enterprise players, like Sony, global banks, and financial companies, creeping into the space. But it’s not the mass adoption we were promised.

So where are the opportunities? Let’s explore them below. Two types of games have emerged in cryptocurrencies:

• Short-term narrative driven (quick in and out). There is nothing wrong with this, but it is mostly played by Degens, short-term founders, venture capitalists and KOLs who want to get rich quick.

• The big funds have been in the game for a long time, funded by large VCs, backing top developers and founders hoping to reap huge returns from going public and potentially Solana or future infrastructure.

So while the atmosphere at these events may be a bit like a rainy day parade, there are still some outstanding founders, projects, and VCs that could surprise us in the coming years. If Bitcoin hits $100,000, we’ll all be back in Ponzi scheme land faster than you can say “decentralization.” No one will care about the fundamentals — until the market sounds the alarm, and by then, it’s too late.

Always stay hungry, stay humble, and stay hedged.

Encrypted Audience

1. Crypto retail Degens (65%)

These newcomers are like enthusiastic puppies chasing every shiny object, mainly to catch the next Bonk, WIF or Poppet and hopefully exit quickly with their winnings. Their characteristics include:

• Hopeful speculators: Believing they can get rich overnight, short-term rotation from one memecoin to another like a kid jumping from one candy bar to another at a carnival.

• Freebie Lovers: These people are primarily interested in booth giveaways, parties, and the myriad side events that promise free drinks and snacks.

• Short-term thinkers: They focus on immediate gains and often overlook the bigger picture and the complex game behind the scenes.

• Project Builders: Some even try to kick-start their projects, often funded by like-minded short-term VCs. However, most founders struggle to get support.

2. “Smart” developers and venture capitalists (25%)

This group of people are slick, self-proclaimed elites who aim to emulate the likes of Vitalik, Anatoly or Raj while selling their dreams to venture capitalists who are obligated to fund them. Their strategies include:

• Funding first: They prioritized securing funding for the next 2-3 years and had detailed plans to create buzz through KOL partnerships and splashy announcements.

• Token hedging: They often fund more project operations and hedge their tokens when they go public, planning to gradually sell them after cashing out, allowing the price to fall.

• Let others take the blame: If a bear market hits, venture capitalists and retail investors will be left empty-handed while these founders enjoy generous salaries and business-class travel.

• Cover-up of a long-term vision: They pretend to be champions of change until the token is launched, at which point their true intentions are revealed — think Blast and Friend.tech, before they jump into the next Ponzi scheme. There are hundreds of examples like this.

3. Real builders (10%)

The last group is made up of true dreamers – real “Chads”, committed to building “the future of France” (or whatever their vision is). They embody:

• Smart Minds: Rather than just selling a dream, these people focus on generating revenue and adding real value.

• Persistence: While they may have struggled to gain traction initially, they remain steadfast and refuse to issue tokens solely for exit liquidity.

• Long-term commitment: They are here for the long term, grounded in reality, outspoken, and advocate for sustainable development of the industry.

In short, these three groups illustrate the range of attitudes in crypto — from impulsive Degens to savvy schemers and finally to the true builders who may just be the ones leading us to a brighter future.

L1/L2 and Infrastructure

• ETH Identity Crisis: Ethereum is currently having an identity crisis — think of it as a mid-life crisis, trying to buy a sports car when everyone else is opting for an electric car. With much of the attention (and development) moving to Solana and select EVM L2s, many users are disparaging ETH. At the end of the day, price is more important than block size. Are ETH thought leaders too comfortable in their mansions to engage with the frontline developer community? Why can’t they be Solana? Is Vitalik the right savior?

• Solana is the clear frontrunner: It feels like Solana is strutting down the runway like it just won “Best in Show.” The buzz around the Solana ecosystem has intensified following the Breakpoint event. They’re not just talking the talk; they’re shipping product faster than a pizza delivery at game night. Check out Firedancer. The Solana community is incredibly organized, especially compared to the chaotic ETHGlobal event. Solana’s single-chain focus and unified community give them the upper hand — focus is key.

• TON: TADA and TON-paid ride-hailing services are a huge success on Token 2049. Everyone is using it and passing around referral codes for TON and TADA. The marketing campaigns by both companies are truly amazing. TON is a clear contender for the next L1 spot with 800 million internal users and the potential to truly achieve mass adoption.

• VC Interest and Funding the Next Solana Killer: VC continues to flow to the next potential Ethereum or Solana killer. Mathematically, this is a no-brainer: if you can find a project that will bring a 1000x return in the next few years, backing it is like finding a golden ticket in your chocolate bar. There are over 10 L1s with barely any activity and still doing between $1 billion and $10 billion in transactions. That in itself is a huge return for any VC.

• Gen Z L1’s of the season: Projects like Monad and Berachain are the latest hot topics, while SUI and Base are also gaining traction. In contrast, older chains like Aptos, SEI, and TIA (Millennial L1) are losing steam, while baby boomer chains like Polygon, Algorand, and Cosmos are fading fast. Sure, you’ll see occasional price spikes driven by market makers and new narratives (like FTM and AVAX), but they’re often fleeting.

• Niche chain specialization: We are witnessing a shift towards specific chain niches. Solana for memes/payments/trading, Ronin for GameFi, Arbitrum for DeFi. This trend, combined with chain abstraction and cross-chain solutions, enhances the user experience and makes interactions smoother.

• Shift to B2B infrastructure and service providers: Some OG chains are offering CDKs, SDKs, rollups, and app chains. While this may keep their tokens relevant, it feels like a band-aid solution — great for yacht life, but not entirely sustainable for the ecosystem.

All in all, while Ethereum grapples with an identity crisis like a teenager unsure of his haircut, Solana is charging forward, fostering innovation and community engagement. As it continues down this path, it will be interesting to see how it evolves and which projects truly stand the test of time.

Project and founder

• The harsh reality of crypto fundraising: Most projects face a slow and painful death in the crypto wilderness. Gone are the glory days when you could get cash simply by making a PowerPoint presentation that shone like a disco ball. Now, its like trying to sell ice to an Eskimo.

• Funding cycle: a never-ending hamster wheel, and funded projects aren’t much better. They’re stuck in the hamster wheel, burning through VC money. Once funding runs out or gets very low, it’s time to raise more money or launch a token. If the token is successful, they might survive another 2-3 years; if not, they have to start all over again. Without new users or real revenue, the path to profitability is as murky as a foggy night on a deserted road.

• Rise of the new projects: Old projects are like toys that were once popular but no one wants to play with them anymore. Why invest in old stuff when SUI, Aptos, Berachain, and Monad are offering grants to attract activity? It’s still the same old stuff, just old wine in new bottles — and it may not even be old wine.

• Ponzi Schemes 2.0: Ponzi schemes seem to keep popping up like weeds after rain. This reminds me of the Celsius and BlockFi days when lending got out of control and led to a spectacular crash. Now, we are seeing a similar cycle of staking, re-staking, and the old “your tokens generate my tokens, and together we generate yield” – but this time, the scale is 10x, and the chain has increased by 10x. When will it end?

• The Tech Founder’s Dilemma: Most tech founders don’t seem to understand that crypto is a completely different beast. They often don’t realize that token economics, product-market fit, community building, and all those buzzwords are critical to success. It’s more than just having a great product; you need a big network and a little bit of luck to make it work. If you’re not in the right VC gang or “KOL mafia,” good luck.

In short, cryptocurrency is a game of strategy, and if you want to play, you better know the rules — otherwise you might just end up being another cautionary tale of the Wild Crypto West.

Venture Capital Funds

The Year of the Venture Capitalist: Navigating the Crypto Swamp.

• Most venture capitalists have had a tough year: they either got in too early and watched their investments languish, or invested this year only to find out that the vesting schedule is still 12-18 months away. In the crypto era, this is like waiting for a snail to finish a marathon.

• The Smart Few: However, there are a few VCs who play the game like chess masters. They help list tokens at high fully diluted valuations (FDV), hedge their risk, and then wait for the tokens to hit bottom and buy them back at a low price. Its like buying a nice suit on clearance after a fashion show – just know when to hold and when to let go.

• The Race to Revenue: Most VCs have finally realized that there are projects that can generate real revenue — like Friend Tech, Pump Fun, and Polymarket. Now everyone is racing to catch the next wave. The challenge? Picking winners and losers among the multitude of competitors — there are over 100 alternatives to Pump Fun alone. It’s just too crowded in the social scene, with everyone trying to outdo each other.

• Liquidity Woes: Liquidity providers are becoming the darlings of the crypto world as projects desperately need more TVL and capital to successfully launch their tokens. Looking back, it’s hard to ignore that most liquidity funds have underperformed Bitcoin this year — unless they specialize in trading memecoins or crypto stocks.

• Memecoin is not available: Regulated funds cannot touch memecoin. Unfortunately, this year it’s all about memecoin.

• LP interest is starting to pick up, but they are waiting for something dramatic to happen. I have been talking to Asian wealth managers and family offices. ETFs are then interesting, but they need a trusted party to manage their money, and every now and then they get some scary news/hacks/scams and are often discouraged.

In conclusion, while the outlook is bumpy and challenging, those who hold on to their convictions may find a path to success amidst this cryptocurrency chaos.

Narrative

• AI projects stand out and take up the largest market share. It seems that everyone is building a decentralized computing network. Just like everyone is building a better TPS L1/L2.

• The most frequently asked question – What do you think is the next narrative? Everyone wants to build or invest in the next short-term narrative.

• Asia is leading the crypto space, with as many developers, founders, and VCs as the West. Regulation is clearer in Singapore/Dubai/Hong Kong than in the West, and everyone I spoke to wants to be in Asia. The population is younger, hungrier, and adoption is higher.

• After GMX, other Perp DEXs except HyperLiquid have not gained any traction. Everyone is waiting for their launch, and some claim that the FDV at launch could reach $100 billion. This could set the tone for other innovative Perp platforms to launch and perform well.

• RWA is another category that seems to be of interest to the industry as a whole. Currently, Helium and Solana seem to be leading the race. Helium, with its extended home wifi signal, is working with phone companies to allow their signal and share Helium’s coverage. Now with over 750,000 users, this is an amazing real-world use case.

• You can’t kill Memcoin mania — because we are Degens by default. Memecoin is here to stay.

• Chain abstraction as infrastructure is very exciting. But there were too many participants and booths at Token 2049. No clear winners yet, but the use case is clear – multi-chain transactions without knowing you are on a blockchain.

• The Bitcoin ecosystem seems to be slowing down. There is a lot of activity and buzz, but not as much attention as last year. The entire ecosystem is still confusing, and real use cases and user experience are still far away.

• Staking and re-staking is losing steam because too many derivatives are on too many chains, creating fragmentation and risk to the entire ecosystem. The poster child for staking, LIDO, seems to be cursed and people are moving on. I dont hold out much hope for the whole staking/re-staking thing, but would keep an open mind if I see anything interesting.

Winners and Losers

• SOL is the clear winner, one chain to rule them all. ETH is a close second, with TON having the potential to come close, as mentioned above.

• TON and SUI appear to have the highest market share of all L1s right now, with a potential internal audience of 800 million. SUI is about to reach its FDV cap of $25 billion, which is where I think it will go.

• TAO/Bitrensor is the most watched project and one of my favorites in AI. A clear winner in its category. Render is another favorite.

• When CZ comes out, Binance may change its face. But BSC needs to make a meme like Justin instead of launching the wrong Neiro.

• $Mother has created a lot of buzz on memecoin, and I believe Izzy has been pushing the envelope in her own way.

  

  

• Hyperliquid is catching on. With a slick user experience, it’s quickly becoming the exchange of choice for many. Some love it, some hate it. It’s hard to predict how it will perform initially, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

  

• Liquidity for new projects is going to be an issue: 40+ great projects are launching in Q4, and 100+ are sitting on the sidelines. We are talking about over $20B in new FDV. Who is going to buy them? If people are going to buy Monad and Berachain, L1s for millennials and boomers have to be sold. I don’t think there is enough liquidity. Many projects and their communities are going to suffer.

• GameFi still hasn’t gained traction: People don’t seem to be interested in GameFi. But I think GameFi will pick up at some point.

This article is sourced from the internet: When will the crypto world made up of Degens emerge from the darkness?

相關：BitMEX Alpha：重溫以太坊

原作者：BitMEX 上週三聯準會宣布降息50個基點後，市場出現意外反彈。例如，$ETH 本週上漲超過 12%，$BTC 本週上漲超過 6%，而 $SUI 和 $AAVE 等山寨幣的漲幅更為顯著。交易者的風險偏好似乎正在增強…為未來幾週 $ETH 的短期反彈創造了條件。本週，我們將重溫我們的老朋友 $ETH，並探索其在未來幾週內跑贏大盤的潛力。為什麼我們看好 ETH，以及如何利用選擇權交易將您的市場觀點付諸行動。讓我們深入探討一下。