Matrixport投資研究：聯準會或進入有序降息週期，利好風險偏好

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August were both released this week. The PPI report showed that wholesale prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, slightly higher than economists expectations, while the year-on-year increase of 1.7% was in line with expectations. The CPI data was released below market expectations.

A 25 basis point rate cut has become a high probability and has increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

After the data was released, the prices of financial assets showed an upward trend. The leading crypto assets, led by BTC, also entered a stage of stopping the decline and rising on the 12th, although the current profit-taking is still happening. The disclosure of the Federal Reserves interest rate decision meeting next week is crucial. The first interest rate cut after a high interest rate usually brings a shock to the market. It is not ruled out that the volatility of the crypto market will increase significantly next week, but based on the upcoming election, some of the fluctuations may be offset.

If the Fed enters an orderly rate cut cycle, it will be beneficial to risky assets. Rate cuts will lead to an increase in global money supply, and the increase in market purchasing power will lead to currency depreciation. It will further increase investors risk appetite and seek asset appreciation.

The presidential debate is over, but it is still hard to say who will be the US president

The market is still in the process of reacting to the latest presidential debate between Harris and Trump, with mixed opinions on the two candidates.

Trump, who used crypto assets as one of his campaign tactics, has not updated on how to improve the lives of the American people. Voters expect him to come up with a refreshing new narrative. The choice of JD Vance as the vice presidential candidate shows that Trumps campaign focus is still on the Rust Belt. However, his policies have not changed much, and the core is still to impose double tariffs on Chinese imports.

Harris has not made any specific statements on policies directly involving BTC or crypto assets, so any impact is possible. The Democratic Party takes a more cautious approach to crypto assets, focusing on regulation, consumer protection, anti-money laundering compliance, and combating bribery and market manipulation. Harriss ruling team may prioritize tightening regulatory policies on crypto asset trading platforms, stablecoins, and DeFi platforms.

The four-year term of the US president happens to be a complete BTC cycle. In the next four years under the leadership of the new president, BTC is destined to experience many unexpected events and significant price fluctuations.

上述部分觀點來自Matrix on Target。 聯絡我們 取得 Matrix on Target 的完整報告。

免責聲明：市場有風險，投資需謹慎。本文不構成投資建議。數位資產交易可能風險極大且不穩定。應仔細考慮個人情況並諮詢金融專業人士後做出投資決定。 Matrixport 對基於本內容中提供的資訊所做的任何投資決策不承擔任何責任。

This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Investment Research: The Federal Reserve may enter an orderly rate cut cycle, which is beneficial to risky assets

Related: The Evolution of Crypto Venture Capital Cycles (Part 2): The Lost Future

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina ) Author: Wenser ( @wenser 2010 ) At the end of The Evolution of Crypto Venture Capital Cycle (Part 1): Rebuilding a New World , after experiencing the IC0 wave led by Ethereum, the public chain investment boom, DeFi, GameFi and other crazes, crypto venture capital is about to enter the industry pain period in which NFT completes the last dance and ends quickly: on the one hand, there are frequent black swan events in the industry that no one expected, such as LUNAs thunder, 3ACs collapse, FTXs sudden collapse, and Genesiss bankruptcy; on the other hand, there is the joint encirclement and suppression and relentless pursuit of the crypto industry by government departments such as the US SEC and CFTC. During the bear market,…