The market fluctuated and corrected in August, and we are waiting to see the new trend of the market
Data source: coinmarketcap
After the release of non-agricultural data in early August, the mainstream currency market experienced a sharp drop in price. Subsequently, the market has repeatedly experienced a trend of rising and falling, and the implied volatility has gradually declined from the highest level on August 5, and the overall market has shown a wide range of fluctuations. The current market urgently needs the guidance of a new round of economic data to promote the development of the next stage of the market.
The market generally expects the Fed to announce a rate cut at its meeting on September 19. However, the new non-farm payrolls data to be released on September 6 will be key. If the data is strong, it will significantly reduce the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in mid-September. In addition, the PPI and CPI data to be released on September 11 and September 12 will also be closely watched. If these inflation indicators do not show a significant decline, it will also reduce the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. Therefore, investors need to pay close attention to the upcoming economic data to judge future market trends.
There are about 19 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
市場技術與情緒環境分析
情緒分析組件
技術指標
價格趨勢
BTC price fell -1.68% and ETH price fell -3.63% over the past week.
上圖是近一周BTC的價格走勢圖。
上圖是近一周ETH的價格走勢圖。
表格顯示了過去一週的價格變化率。
pctChange1Day3Day5Day7Daybtc_pctChange0.55% -5.53% -7.48% -1.68% eth_pctChange-0.03% -5.7% -8.68% -3.63%
價量分佈圖(支撐位和阻力位)
In the past week, both BTC and ETH hit a high point and then fell back to a high-volume trading area.
上圖為近一週BTC密集交易區域分佈。
上圖為近一週ETH密集交易區域分佈。
表格顯示了過去一週BTC和ETH的周密集交易區間。
成交量和持倉量
In the past week, the trading volume of BTC and ETH was the largest when they plummeted to 8.27; the open interest of BTC and ETH did not change significantly.
上圖上方為BTC的價格走勢,中間為交易量,下方為持股量,淺藍色為1日均線,橘色為7日均線。 K線的顏色代表當前狀態,綠色表示價格上漲受到成交量的支撐,紅色表示平倉,黃色表示慢慢累積倉位,黑色表示擁擠狀態。
上圖上方為ETH的價格走勢,中間為交易量,下方為持倉量,淺藍色為1日均線,橘色為7日均線。 K線的顏色代表當前狀態,綠色表示價格上漲受到成交量的支撐,紅色表示平倉,黃色表示慢慢累積倉位,黑色表示擁擠。
歷史波動率與隱含波動率
Historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest this past week at 8.27; implied volatility for BTC fell while ETH rose.
黃線是歷史波動率,藍線是隱含波動率,紅點是其7日平均值。
事件驅動
No major data was released in the past week, and we are waiting for the release of non-farm data on 09.06.
Emotional indicators
動量情緒
過去一周,比特幣/黃金/納斯達克/恆生指數/上證300中,黃金表現最強,比特幣表現最差。
上圖為近一周不同資產的走勢。
貸款利率_貸款情緒
The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 9.9%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12%.
黃線為美元利率最高價,藍線為最高價75%,紅線為最高價75% 7日均線。
表格顯示過去不同持有日美元利率的平均回報
資金費率_合約槓桿情緒
The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 0.3%, and contract leverage sentiment remained low.
藍線是BTC在幣安上的資金費率,紅線是其7日平均值
表格顯示了過去不同持有天數的BTC費用平均報酬。
市場相關性_共識情緒
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.8, and the consistency between different varieties was high.
上圖中,藍線是比特幣的價格,綠線是[1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape、apt、 arb、ar、astr、atom、音訊、avax、axs、bal、樂團、bat、bch、bigtime、模糊、bnb、btc、celo、cfx、chz、ckb、comp、crv、cvx、網路、 dash、doge、 dot、dydx、egld、enj、ens、eos 等、eth、fet、fil、flow、ftm、fxs、gala、gmt、gmx、grt、hbar、hot、icp、icx、imx、inj、 iost、iotx、jasmy 、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、link、loom、lpt、lqty、lrc、ltc、luna 2、magic、mana、matic、meme、mina、mkr、near、neo、ocean、一、ont 、 op、 pendle、 qnt、 qtum、 rndr、 玫瑰、 符文、 rvn、 沙、 sei、 sfp、 skl、 snx、 sol、 ssv、 stg、 storj、 stx、 sui、 sushi、 sxp、 theta、 tia、 trx、 t 、uma、uni 、vet、waves、wld、woo、xem、xlm、xmr、xrp、xtz、yfi、zec、zen、zil、zrx] 整體相關性
市場廣度_整體情緒
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 41% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 48% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 18% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 10% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market returned to a downward trend.
上圖是[bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, alt, agix, ai, ape, , 、arb、ar、astr、atom、avax、axs、bal、band、bat、bch、bigtime、blur、cake、celo、cfx、chz、ckb、comp、crv、cvx、cyber、dash、doge、dot、 dydx 、egld、enj、ens、eos 等、fet、fil、flow、ftm、fxs、gala、gmt、gmx、grt、hbar、hot、icp、icx、idu、imx、inj、iot、iotx、jasmy、 jto、 jup、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、link、loom、lpt、lqty、lrc、ltc、luna 2、magic、mana、manta、mask、matic、meme、mina、mkr、near、neo、nfp、海洋、一、ont、op、ordi、pendle、pyth、qnt、qtum、rndr、robin、rose、rune、rvn、sand、sei、sfp、skl、snx、ssv、stg、storj、stx、sui、sushi、sxp 、theta 、tia、trx、t、uma、uni、vet、waves、wif、wld、woo、xai、xem、xlm、xmr、xrp、xtz、yfi、zec、zen、zil、zrx ] 30 天比例每個寬度指示器
總結
In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell by -1.68% and -3.63% after a short-term surge. After a short-term surge, the prices of both fell back to a low-level dense trading area. On August 27, the prices of both fell sharply, and the trading volume on that day reached a peak, while the open interest did not change significantly. In terms of volatility, the historical volatility reached its highest point on the decline on August 27, however, the implied volatility performance was differentiated: BTC implied volatility fell, while ETH rose. In the performance comparison of different assets, gold was the strongest among Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300, while Bitcoin performed the weakest. The average annualized yield of USD lending is 9.9%. The average annualized return of BTC funding rate is 0.3%, indicating that the leverage sentiment of the contract is still low. The correlation between the selected 129 currencies remains around 0.8, showing a high consistency between different varieties. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies in the overall market have returned to a downward trend.
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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.08.23-08.30): August shock correction, wait-and-see new trends
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