德勁生存法則：建立穩健的退出策略並重新定位部位

Original author: DUO NINE鈿CC

原文翻譯：TechFlow

The market is up, Trump is elected, and youre looking at Lamborghinis, but theres one thing youre not doing.

You didnt sell.

I first wrote about this topic on X and it went viral, garnering over a million views! It seems like we need to dive deeper into this, so let鈥檚 get started.

The biggest mistake in crypto is not buying meme coins or similar high-risk tokens.

no.

The biggest mistake is to never sell and exit your position! That鈥檚 how you end up back at zero. Just like this guy. Let鈥檚 explore this further.

To win at this game, you must take five actions. Lets start with the most important.

1. Create an exit plan

That guy didnt sell, and his $4 million paper profit turned into $77,000. Im here to teach you how to avoid this rookie mistake.

概括 : Sell any life-changing moment ! Detailed explanation starts in the next paragraph.

When the market goes up quickly, as it will again, greed takes over! You made $4 million in a few weeks, so its okay to wait a few weeks before selling, right?

wrong!

Dont let greed turn into regret. If youve made five or six zeros in profit. Sell.

Next is when to sell.

The exit window could be late 2024 or early 2025. When BTC hits new highs, FOMO and euphoria will set in. The top will come at or just after the US election, most likely in December this year.

Trump is 100% pro-crypto, so this narrative fits perfectly. Why?

Dumb money (you) will buy FOMO, and smart money (VCs) will sell. There is no better time to sell than when the market is euphoric!

Having an exit plan helps; it keeps you grounded. Otherwise, fantasy takes over and you forget to sell.

Study the crypto pyramid . If you are at the bottom, your odds are low and most of the information you receive is fake. Learn how the game is played and exit the crypto casino when your pockets are filled with cash.

Next is the important part!

2. Prepare for the coming bear market by sitting on fat profits

News Flash: The Bear Market is Coming !

Trust me, it will come. Hard. Probably in 2025. There is not much time left to sell. If I am being generous, we have 6 to 12 months left. Maximize this when the market starts to rise again.

I expect one more massive run up and then the market turns. You have one last chance to sell. Dont miss it. Some believe the top will come later in 2025. However, price action so far suggests this cycle is faster, with BTC making new highs in March 2024. This is before the halving in April!

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• Hey friend, I really enjoyed your post! I saw you said the market top will come soon. Why do you think that? Just curious since a lot of people are talking about the end of 2025.

• Thanks! Most people have no concept of market cycles, they just project their biases onto the charts. The current cycle is faster, BTC reached a new all-time high before the halving. So we may also peak earlier. Of course, I could be wrong, but dont trust anyone except price action. We can evaluate again at the end of 2024. 😉

If this trend continues, the market may also top out sooner. Either way, follow the price action, nothing else. Don鈥檛 trust influencers to have your best interests in mind, go back to the cryptocurrency pyramid above and study it to understand why.

When you exit this market, you exit by selling BTC, gold, or USD. If you plan to hold altcoins, you must be a newbie. Here鈥檚 why.

3. Plan to liquidate all altcoins in the next uptrend

Sell them all and wait for the market to correct. Altcoins can drop 90% to 99% in a bear market. Buy them back a year or two later at a discount (more on this later). Dont rush!

Everyone loves Solana right now, but look at what the last bear market did to its price! 99% of altcoins will be like this when the next bear market comes. Don鈥檛 expect things to be different. Instead, plan for this scenario.

Use these profits wisely and buy assets in times of panic – and there will be panic! Never buy back when the market rises further.

4. Youve quit, hang on! Dont gamble

A quick way to lose money re-entering the market is to buy during a random rally. Conversely, you might buy the last rally before a crash.

I recommend waiting one to two years after the market peaks before considering getting back in. Waiting a year is the bare minimum! This means that during this time you should not touch or even think about pressing the buy button. Simply forget about crypto during this time.

The only exception is new projects that are innovative in some way. But even here, the risk is high. However, early entry can be decisive. In this case, whatever you decide, never go all-in on one altcoin. Never. The only exception is Bitcoin.

After you鈥檝e sold and are sitting on a nice profit, it鈥檚 time to plan your re-entry into the market.

5. Instead of buying back at the highs, plan to buy at the lows

Look at your profits and make an allocation plan for the bear market . How much BTC to buy? Altcoins? New high-risk coins?

Next comes the rules.

A good general rule is to only buy when an altcoin is down 90% or more! In the Solana chart above, the price is down 97%! In Bitcoin鈥檚 case, only buy when it鈥檚 down more than 60% from its all-time high. For ETH it鈥檚 70% or more.

Note that an ETF could change the price dynamics of BTC and ETH in the coming bear market. Update your exit plan based on new data, especially towards the end of 2024. By then, we will have a clearer idea whether my assumptions above are accurate. In any case, I will update you later this year, just keep an eye on this newsletter.

If you dont take the market seriously, the market wont take you seriously.

It will take all your profits and run away with them, but you will do better next time.

If you stick with it.

• Rule 1: Never lose money.

• Rule 2: Never forget the first rule.

I鈥檝e seen enough cycles to know what鈥檚 coming next. Most people don鈥檛. And you know why? Because we鈥檙e still in the early stages of this emerging market! Crypto just got its first ETF and presidents are now talking about it. It took a long time to get here.

But this is just the beginning!

There is much more to come and you can make a huge fortune in this field if you take it seriously!

Its all fun and games until you see five or six zeros in your wallet. Those can have a life-changing impact.

Dont let it slip away.

That would be your signal to move from wealth creation to wealth preservation.

Most people fail in this transition and pay a heavy price for it.

This means you need to secure your newfound wealth. Don鈥檛 bet it on meme coins. Only extreme speculators can make millions out of thin air. But equally, only extreme speculators can lose it.

So what should you do?

You have to grow up, you have to mature.

This usually means focusing on Bitcoin. Most people will naturally end up choosing Bitcoin because of what it represents. It is the ultimate tool to protect your wealth!

But you have to own it first. So you have to be an extreme speculator, but learn when to stop !

This is based on my story, yours may be different but the lesson is always the same.

Regardless, the market humbles us all.

But you have the ultimate power:

You decide when to enter and exit this market!

原文連結

This article is sourced from the internet: Degen survival rules: build a robust exit strategy and reposition positions

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