逃頂指南：大盤情勢下如何把握賣出機會？

原作者：1912212.eth，前瞻新聞

The one who knows how to buy is just the apprentice, the one who knows how to sell is the master, which fully explains the mystery of the market. Imagine that when the position you bought brings profits at the beginning, and then continues to soar, the floating profit is huge, and you are full of joy. You think that it will reach your psychological price and that the next madness is about to come.

As a result, the market came to a sudden halt. At this time, you thought it was just a consolidation and fluctuation. Not long after, it fell again, and the profit was lost by half.

Selling is too hard, and you are afraid of selling at a loss. Dont sell, hold on, and the market finally teaches you a cruel lesson. It starts to fall below the cost price, and you think it has bottomed out, but it drops 30%. You choose to buy at the bottom again, but it drops another 20%. At this point, you are seriously stuck and have no money left. Just after you reluctantly sell, it is exactly the bottom range of the market, and the market starts to slowly climb.

Not being able to take profits will lead to a significant profit drawdown, or even end up with a loss. Every novice entering the market must have experienced this, and even some veterans cannot escape the curse of market sentiment.

This article will focus on the interpretation of the top-escape selling indicators. It is hoped that readers will better grasp the selling opportunities under the overall market conditions after digesting and understanding them.

Coinbase tops the US Apple APP free list

As a compliant exchange in the United States, Coinbase not only has considerable influence in listing coins, but the popularity of its APP downloads can also be used to observe the overall market heat and sentiment indicators.

In the last bull market cycle, Coinbase entered the top 100 free list of Apple App Store after November 2020, and then entered the top 30 in January 2021, and even caused technical problems at one point.

Interestingly, nine months later, on October 28, 2021, Coinbase ranked No. 1 on the free list. At that time, the BTC price was around $60,000, only 10 days away from the peak of $69,000 reached on November 8.

When users flocked to download Coinbase to buy coins, the top features were already obvious.

BTC monthly chart is difficult to break the historical record of 7 consecutive increases

From the historical charts, we can see that in a complete bull market cycle, there is only one BTC surge.

In the last cycle, from October 2020 to March 2021, the monthly line rose for 6 consecutive times. In this cycle, benefiting from the approval of spot ETFs, BTC has achieved a rare 7 consecutive monthly rises.

After that, it began to consolidate. In this bull market, since its price is already above 60,000 US dollars, it will be very difficult to achieve the miracle of 7 consecutive increases in the second half of this bull market.

BTC Unrealized Net Profit/Loss

This indicator is mainly used to measure the profit/loss of players on the Bitcoin chain. We can see that the colors of the rows are red, orange, light yellow, gray and light blue from top to bottom. The blue at the bottom represents that most people are losing money, while the red at the top represents that most players are making a profit.

當折線圖處於淺藍色區域時，往往是BTC價格的底部區間，因為停損的人不斷離場築底。當折線圖位於黃色或紅色區域時，通常是BTC價格的頂部區間。大多數人獲利後，相當一部分獲利盤會選擇止盈離場，從而出現週期的頂部。循環重複。

Judging from the line chart, the market is currently at the high point of the yellow area, and more than 52% of Bitcoin players are still in a state of unrealized net profit.

In past cycles, the broken line has dropped sharply to the green zone twice, which means that most people are in a loss state. This has only happened once in this cycle. Whether history will repeat itself in the future remains to be seen.

HODL Supply

This data chart is mainly used to observe the performance of Bitcoin HODL data. Here we define short-term users as holding coins for less than 1 year, and long-term users as holding coins for more than 1 year.

At the top of the bull market, long-term holders often take profits and leave the market, so their share will decrease. Short-term holders often rush in to buy when prices are high, and you will see that the supply share is obviously quite high.

If the above picture is not clear enough, you can refer to the picture below. The peak of the increase in the number of short-term coin holders is often also the stage top of the coin price.

From this chart, we can also find an interesting phenomenon. As the price of BTC continues to rise, players with insufficient financial strength may no longer be able to buy enough BTC. This results in that although the supply of short-term holders will have a certain peak in coin holdings, it is far less than the peak holdings in the past two bull markets.

When the proportion of long-term holders decreases, it is often the top range of the market (see the figure below). They are the smart money in the market.

From the chart we can see that in the recent bull market, long-term holders began to sell in January this year, accelerated around February, and continued to sell until now. So far, the speed of their exit has slowed down.

Long-term trend indicator MVRV Z-Score

This indicator uses the total market cost as the base number and mainly reflects the overall profitability of the market. The light red area is MVRV, and the line graph is Z-Scroe (highlighting the extreme data between market value and realized value). When the orange line graph touches the light red area, it is the top of the market. If it is further subdivided, when it is above 6, it is also the top range.

When the orange line graph is in the light blue area, it means that the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 2, which is in the middle stage.

Bitcoin contract open interest

In the past few months, a very interesting phenomenon is that every time the open interest of Bitcoin contracts on the entire network hits a record high, it is often the peak of the BTC price.

例如，

March 4, $29 billion, BTC price $68,499

March 13, $33.9 billion, BTC price $73,650

March 29, $38.8 billion, BTC price $70,780

June 7, $38 billion, BTC price $71,997;

Contract data represents the market funds views on future market trends. When the market is unanimously optimistic about the short-term trend and continues to increase leverage, a correction will often occur in order to clean up the chips and move forward lightly.

概括

In addition to the above indicators, other methods for judging market conditions include Ethereum gas fees, social media activity, integer threshold Schelling points and other factors. It is both a science and an art. Investors need to comprehensively and rationally evaluate the above indicators in order to better grasp market opportunities.

This article is sourced from the internet: Guide to escaping the top: How to grasp the selling opportunity in a big market situation?

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