Matrixport投資研究：從宏觀因素來看，BTC正走向新高

Matrixport研究院的最新研究表明，近期的重點是：

• The global interest rate cut cycle has started, and this round of bull market will continue until the Fed cuts interest rates

• The BTC market is clearly bullish, and the BTC ETF has achieved net inflows for 18 consecutive trading days

• If Nvidias stock price prediction is correct, BTC could hit $100,000 this year

The macro economy has always been the most important driver of BTC prices, and many market (timing) predictions are based on changes in the macro environment. BTC trading is a complex field, and correctly analyzing the macro environment played a key role in our judgment of the bottom of the bear market in October 2022, correctly anticipating another bull market in January 2023, and judging the market ups and downs during the cycle.

The contract is aggressively bullish, and investors need to avoid the risk of liquidation

Futures traders are increasing their long positions in anticipation of higher Bitcoin prices, with open interest climbing to $20.5 billion, above the peak in March and April 2024. In fact, buying has been quite aggressive, with limited impact on funding rates.

The global interest rate cut cycle has started, and this round of bull market will continue until the Fed cuts interest rates

The bull run could continue until the Fed cuts rates, not just because inflation is falling, but because economic growth will slow significantly. While it may take months or even quarters for this to fully play out, we expect BTC to hit new all-time highs in the coming days. Historical data shows that Bitcoins returns are most significant after the Fed ends its aggressive rate hikes and pauses. Notably, the Fed has been on hold since July 2023, during which time we have also witnessed a sharp rise in Bitcoin.

From a strategic perspective, some central banks have begun to cut interest rates. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the three major interest rates to 4.25%, 3.75%, and 4.50%, respectively. This is the first interest rate cut since 2019 and the second central bank among the G7 member countries to cut interest rates. Data shows that the global interest rate cut cycle may have started, and it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve takes action to cut interest rates.

BTC ETF has achieved net inflows for 18 consecutive trading days

As inflation fell in May, funds shifted to Bitcoin spot ETFs. This week, we observed the second largest single-day inflows ever. As of June 7, BTC spot ETFs have achieved net inflows for the 18th consecutive trading day. This shows the strong confidence of investors in the continued bullishness of BTC prices.

BTC is on the verge of breaking new highs. Once it breaks through $71,946, BTC may quickly rush to new highs. If Nvidias stock price prediction is correct, then Bitcoin will continue to rise and we are expected to see BTC at $100,000 this year.

上述部分觀點來自Matrix on Target。 聯絡我們 取得 Matrix on Target 的完整報告。

免責聲明：市場有風險，投資需謹慎。本文不構成投資建議。數位資產交易可能風險極大且不穩定。應仔細考慮個人情況並諮詢金融專業人士後做出投資決定。 Matrixport 對基於本內容中提供的資訊所做的任何投資決策不承擔任何責任。

This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Investment Research: Considering the macro factors, BTC is heading for a new high

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