觀點：山寨幣牛市即將來臨，是時候逢低買進了

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Original author: CryptoAmsterdam

原文翻譯：TechFlow

Is the altcoin bull market coming? This article will express my views from the following two aspects.

There are different stages of a bull market, and I think the altcoin bull market has not yet begun.
Why I think a lot of people miss out and how I do it.

cycle

All assets, on any time frame, will show similar cyclical structures. Focus on the weekly cycle, which is what we usually refer to as a bull market on the higher time frames.

Bull Market
Bear Market
Consolidation period
Doubt period

(1) Bull Market

Phases 4 and 5 are where the parabolic rise occurs.

The cycle structure applies to BTC, and you can find market structure in the fluctuations at each cycle stage.

Bull Market = Higher Highs/Lows
Bear Market = Lower Highs/Lows
Consolidation period = equal highs/lows
Doubt Period = Initial Higher High (milliseconds/trend breakout)
Bull Market = Higher Highs/Lows

Although you can already identify trends, market structure, and cycle phases, you can make it clearer by adding a range.

Stage 4 is the breakout of the initial high, a trend reversal, and stage 5 is where the bull market takes a parabolic rise.

Range lows regained

To identify stage 4, you can use the range low recapture setup to catch the price rebounding from the downtrend and re-entering the previous trading range. After the price breaks out of the range (stage 3), it moves back above the range low (stage 4), and then the price usually moves closer to the range high again (stage 5), and we want to trade as close to the range low as possible.

Combining cycle structure, market structure, and range reoccupation setups, you get a blueprint:

Understanding where we are in the cycle
Find your entry/exit point/target
Understand the current situation and expectations

As you can see, BTC has hit the range high after retaking the range low.

This pattern allowed us to enter the market after BTC reclaimed the low point of the range in 2023 and entered the doubt period.

What would you think if I told you that, in my opinion, altcoins are now in a very similar position to BTC?

( Source of tweet )

In the first stage of the bull market, it is mainly BTC, while in the second stage, it is the time for altcoins to chase the rise. The high price of BTC attracts peoples attention, and profit and greed will later lead them to pay attention to altcoins. This shift always happens after BTC reaches a new high.

Reasons why altcoins are likely to start or will soon experience a significant uptrend:

Historically, when BTC has surged and hit new highs, this has marked the apex of its dominance. While BTC may move higher first, the fact that it has been in an uptrend so far this cycle suggests that altcoins have yet to go through their bull cycle.

ETH/BTC is entering the range lows and is in phase 4, which is the reversal zone. In the last cycle, ETH has been trading in doubt against BTC. Imagine what this cycle will be like if she enters phase 5: the parabolic rise. The reversal means a rise in altcoins, which will expand into the broader market.

ETH/USD

When ETHBTC rebounds, I expect ETH/USD to reoccupy the middle range and form a false middle range breakout.

Trigger conditions: Reoccupation of the middle range and break of the lower timeframe market structure and trendlines.

ETH ETF

Excited about the ETH ETF decision next week, expected to be delayed, but who knows, regardless, I think the market has already priced it in, a potential bearish outcome, probably already anticipated and priced in by market participants, into macro reversal territory, which is very exciting. Meme sell-off, perhaps in anticipation of a trend shift?

Anyway, back to the altcoin cycle thesis.

We are already halfway through the cryptocurrency cycle;
The first stage was mainly dominated by Bitcoin, with some individual currencies performing outstandingly;
In the second stage, altcoins will rebound;

The altcoin market will reduce PvP (player versus player) competition.

So how would I proceed, and why do I think the majority will once again be marginalized?

It is important to understand that if you are betting on altcoins bull run based on the reasons listed above (range lows recapture, crypto and AI bull cycle structures, etc.), you are actually just betting on a trade setup/structure to occur.

If we simplify this, it is a recapture of the range low on the higher timeframe.

Trigger condition: Recapture of range low
Target 1: Range high area
Goal 2 based on cycle structure: eventually surpass the range high
Failure Condition: Another acceptance below the range low (indicating a falling market structure)
Entry: As close to the range low as possible

This structure should be manipulated in the same manner on any time frame it appears in, regardless of its duration. And that鈥檚 where the difficulty lies.

Imagine this setup is a 1 minute chart, it re-enters the range and you enter. Now, within the next 15 minutes (thats 15 bars), it retraces to the range low, which is completely normal and does not invalidate the setup.

Everyone is able to hold on, and most people may be mentally prepared to add to their positions if prices pull back to the lows of the range.

This is how you should trade this setup; the problem is that this is not a 1 minute candlestick chart, it is a weekly chart.

A bigger drop
It takes longer

The problem is that:

People have no patience;
They want action;
When it takes longer, it can lead to poor execution;
Can鈥檛 stand falling;
Try to do small things within this larger setup;

Overall, the altcoin market cap chart is not an asset you can buy, but it is the basis of my thesis about the arrival of the altcoin bull cycle and the setups/trades I am operating.

Buy altcoins on retest of range lows
Sell altcoins at range highs and above

How did I do it?

I have been buying on dips. My first buy was based on a retest of this 0.25 level. In a bull market (after a breakout and recapture of the range low), the 0.25 level usually acts as a continuation of the rally into the 5th phase.

But it could also fail and go lower. The 0.25 setup would be invalidated, but remember: I am operating off the initial macro range low recapture setup, which is still very much alive. We could just be retesting the range low, providing a perfect opportunity.

Take FET as an example.

This may be painful as it means another 30% (or more) pullback in the overall market and more choppy trading and time consuming trading, but again: this does not invalidate our primary setup.

Range Low: My second buy pullback zone.

BTC has failed to flip the 0.25 level in 2021 and has retested the range low. (Just like the COVID pullbacks in history)

This article is sourced from the internet: Opinion: The altcoin bull market is coming, it鈥檚 time to buy on dips

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