Matrixport Investment Research: BTC and gold may become the first choice for institutional asset allocation in 2025

The fifth BTC bull run is unfolding at an alarming pace, with BTC now approaching the $100,000 mark and looking increasingly unlikely to top out at this level.

Gold occupies a key position in institutional portfolios, a trend that may accelerate in the coming years. The efforts of global central banks to diversify their reserve assets away from the dollar may be a long-term task that will last for a decade or more. Although BTC has outperformed gold in recent years, both assets deserve a place in institutional portfolios, not only because of their non-correlated returns, but also because of their promising return prospects under the macroeconomic outlook.

Today鈥檚 Matrixport investment research will use quantitative methods to analyze institutional portfolio allocations, while incorporating our views on asset allocation in 2025.

Gold has experienced a sell-off after the US election due to a stronger dollar. However, this could be a great buying opportunity for gold investors, as the ongoing gold bull run could go hand in hand with the continued momentum of the BTC bull run. Gold occupies a key position in institutional portfolios, a trend we expect to accelerate in the coming years. The efforts of global central banks to diversify their reserve assets away from the dollar may be a long-term effort that will last a decade or more.

To date, there have been many attempts to justify the inclusion of BTC in institutional multi-asset portfolios. These arguments typically emphasize BTCs long-term solid performance, high risk-adjusted returns, and non-correlation with traditional asset benchmarks such as the SP 500. While BTCs correlations with other assets may temporarily spike, they remain unpredictable and inconsistent.

Frequent rebalancing may further improve returns, but the real value lies not in fine-tuning the rebalancing frequency, but in making informed judgments about return assumptions across asset classes and constructing a portfolio optimized for an acceptable level of risk. The potential role of BTC in a portfolio depends on forward-looking expectations, not just past performance.

Investors need to optimize their portfolios while managing risk and combining their views on future returns. The Black-Litterman asset allocation model provides a sophisticated solution. This widely used framework combines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the subjective views of investors to create a robust and realistic portfolio allocation.

This portfolio allocation is designed for large multi-asset portfolio managers such as endowments, pensions and sovereign wealth funds. Based on portfolio optimization with a Sharpe ratio of 1.6x, the projected portfolio return is +15.6%.

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