Matrixport Investment Research: Quý 4 sắp đến, BTC có thể kết thúc quá trình hợp nhất vào mùa hè

October to December has always been the strongest period for the market, and the six-month consolidation phase may be coming to an end. BTC is likely to rebound at the end of the year, bringing surprises to many market participants.

Although BTC has been consolidating since reaching its all-time high in March 2024, its year-to-date return is +49%, which is comparable to the +47% return predicted based on historical data. Based on Bitcoins performance over the past decade, if this historical trend continues, October is likely to see a significant rebound.

The Feds rate cut boosted market sentiment and prevented the labor market from continuing to weaken

The Federal Reserve recently announced a 50 bp rate cut. Chairman Powell told the financial market that the decision was made because the Fed is confident that inflation will fall back to the 2% target level. At the same time, the rate cut is also a preventive measure to avoid a weakening labor market. Powell emphasized that the overall US economy is running well, and his relatively tough remarks also put many investors concerns to rest. Although the uncertainty of the US election still exists, the Feds move has successfully maintained market momentum.

As crypto assets continue to approach the tipping point of mass adoption, BTCs fate may turn around in 2025. The coming weeks and months will be an exciting and transformative period for all players in the crypto asset space.

Historical data shows that crypto assets have performed strongly at the end of the year, which is worth looking forward to

Historically, October to March has been a period of strong performance, with an average return of +40% over the past decade, while April to September has only averaged +27%. Similar cycles have occurred in 2023 and 2024. October has been the strongest month, with an average return of +20%, and eight of the past ten years have been positive.

ETH mining fees rebounded slightly, and the summer consolidation is expected to end

ETH mining fees rebounded slightly, indicating that the summer consolidation phase of crypto assets is expected to end. As for whether the rebound momentum will continue, a more detailed and rigorous analysis of ETH revenue and mining fee trends is needed. Closely monitoring these indicators can provide insight into whether the recent rebound is sustainable. If it is not sustainable, it means that the logic of market activities may have changed.

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