Matrixport Investment Research: A brief analysis of the impact of the implementation of “reciprocal” tariffs on BTC

On April 3, US President Trump issued a new round of tariffs on US trading partners. Although US stock futures have clearly retreated in response to this, the market reaction (especially implied volatility) remains relatively mild. There are signs that the market is not viewing this as a full-blown risk-off event and there is still room for negotiation. As US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted, this could be the beginning of a months-long trade negotiation process that could extend into June.

1

BTC remains below the key resistance zone of around $90,000. Under the premise of a neutral Fed, although hedge fund arbitrage selling may be coming to an end (as seen from the contraction of basis and financing rates and the large amount of liquidation of Chicago Mercantile تبادلہ BTC futures during the monthly rollover period), the current market buying drive is still relatively weak, and there is no obvious reversal of the net outflow trend of BTC spot ETFs for the time being.

2

Wall Streets fear index VIX rose slightly, from 20% to 23.5%, but it is still far below the peak of 36% when recession fears surged in August 2024. At that time, the Federal Reserves rare emergency rate cut of 50 basis points in September triggered the market rebound in the fourth quarter, which was further boosted by Elon Musks public support for Trump and Trumps eventual election. But it was the Feds policy shift that really laid the foundation for the market rebound.

3

The upcoming US earnings season will be significant – especially after a wave of restocking activity prior to the tariff announcement. However, recent data, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling back into contraction territory, suggest that this restocking cycle has run its course.

The forward-looking new orders index also points to a weak trend ahead. It is worth noting that the Fed last cut interest rates in September 2024 not because of weak economic growth, but due to concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market – a situation that has not yet materialized.

4

میں کرپٹوcurrency market, the 1-week BTC skew briefly spiked to 20%, reflecting increased demand for downside protection near $80,000. Options skew refers to the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money put options and call options, and generally reflects the markets expectations of downside risk versus upside risk.

A positive skew means put options are more expensive than call options, suggesting investors are more inclined to hedge against falling prices. However, as tariff concerns fade from the headlines, the skew has fallen back to 9%. As a result, many put options may go to waste – which could trigger a modest wave of buying pressure as traders buy into the market as hedges are unwound.

Trump may turn to a more market-friendly policy narrative, such as tax cuts or deregulation, to stabilize market sentiment, as his plan to reshoring manufacturing relies on strong growth in domestic and international investment.

ڈس کلیمر: مارکیٹ خطرناک ہے اور سرمایہ کاری میں محتاط رہنا چاہئے۔ یہ مضمون سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے پر مشتمل نہیں ہے۔ ڈیجیٹل اثاثوں کی تجارت انتہائی خطرناک اور غیر مستحکم ہو سکتی ہے۔ سرمایہ کاری کے فیصلے ذاتی حالات پر غور کرنے اور مالیاتی ماہرین سے مشورہ کرنے کے بعد کیے جائیں۔ Matrixport اس مواد میں فراہم کردہ معلومات کی بنیاد پر سرمایہ کاری کے کسی بھی فیصلے کے لیے ذمہ دار نہیں ہے۔

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