Matrixport Investment Research: Make good use of options for BTC risk management

The changes in global liquidity are obvious, and BTC may enter a consolidation phase. There is evidence that liquidity trends usually affect BTC price movements about 13 weeks in advance.

The hawkish tone of the FOMC meeting may suppress BTCs upward trend

Since the December 2024 FOMC meeting, inflows into BTC ETFs have leveled off, remaining at a record peak of $35.9 billion. However, as the Fed becomes increasingly hawkish, risk capital may hesitate to invest further in these ETFs until monetary policy becomes clearer. Although the market initially shrugged off the hawkish tone of the December FOMC meeting, analysis of BTCs historical performance suggests that such hawkish rhetoric may limit BTCs gains until the Fed signals a shift to a more dovish stance.

While many attribute the 2024 BTC price rally to the launch of the ETF, it may be more closely tied to the Fed鈥檚 policy changes. The 2024 rally began with a more dovish tone from Fed Chairman Powell in late January 2024. This coincided with BTC鈥檚 upward momentum, but at the March FOMC meeting, Powell became less clear about when the Fed would begin cutting rates, and this uncertainty may have led to the subsequent six months of sideways trading, making the next move heavily dependent on the Fed鈥檚 turn to dovishness in September.

Although Trumps policy stance is conducive to the rise of کرپٹوcurrencies, it cannot be ruled out that the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve may limit the upside. The current downside risks in the market seem limited, but risk management in advance can avoid risks.

Implied volatility is low, and the proper use of options can maintain market exposure and manage risk

Currently, with implied volatility at low levels, options present an attractive opportunity. Call options are relatively cheap, allowing traders to take advantage of potential upside. Alternatively, traders can use put options to protect fat BTC profits at a low cost. Given the current uncertain outlook, utilizing options is a prudent way for traders to manage risk while maintaining exposure to market volatility.

مندرجہ بالا خیالات میں سے کچھ میٹرکس آن ٹارگٹ سے آتے ہیں۔ ہم سے رابطہ کریں۔ ہدف پر میٹرکس کی مکمل رپورٹ حاصل کرنے کے لیے۔

ڈس کلیمر: مارکیٹ خطرناک ہے اور سرمایہ کاری میں محتاط رہنا چاہئے۔ یہ مضمون سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے پر مشتمل نہیں ہے۔ ڈیجیٹل اثاثوں کی تجارت انتہائی خطرناک اور غیر مستحکم ہو سکتی ہے۔ سرمایہ کاری کے فیصلے ذاتی حالات پر غور کرنے اور مالیاتی ماہرین سے مشورہ کرنے کے بعد کیے جائیں۔ Matrixport اس مواد میں فراہم کردہ معلومات کی بنیاد پر سرمایہ کاری کے کسی بھی فیصلے کے لیے ذمہ دار نہیں ہے۔

This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Investment Research: Make good use of options for BTC risk management

Related: ​BitMEX Alpha: Arbitrage between Polymarket and Options

Original author: BitMEX Welcome back to our weekly analysis of options investment strategies. Today, we will share a unique trading opportunity that stems from a significant difference in Bitcoin prediction probabilities between the BitMEX options market and prediction platform Polymarket. The last out-of-the-money Bitcoin call option with a strike price of $120,000 (expiring on December 27) on BitMEX shows that the risk-neutral probability of Bitcoin reaching this price is about 8%. However, participants on the Polymarket platform have priced the probability of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 before December 31 at about 17%. This significant difference may bring arbitrage opportunities for savvy traders. In this article, we take a closer look at this price mismatch, detail how the 8% probability is calculated, propose a trading strategy to exploit this discrepancy, and highlight…