Cycle Capital: Will the US election continue to be a meme theme in 2024?

Since the start of the US election, a series of election-related meme tokens have emerged. After the Trump campaign team publicly supported cryptocurrency donations, TRUMP was the main representative, with a market value of $775 million at its peak. Due to Bidens more conservative attitude towards crypto, the market attention of tokens related to him is relatively low. After Trump was convicted of the hush money case, the price of Trump-related tokens fell, while Biden-related meme tokens rose. During the election, who can become the president of the United States and public statements on crypto attitudes affect the price trend of related tokens.

Candidates attitudes towards cryptocurrencies

Trump

In this campaign, Trump changed his previous anti-crypto attitude and made a series of crypto-friendly remarks, including ensuring that the future of the crypto industry and Bitcoin happens in the United States, and will protect the wallet self-custody rights of 50 million cryptocurrency holders across the United States, and promised to pardon the founder of Silk Road after being elected.

The change in its attitude towards encryption is not without trace. At the end of 2022, Trump announced the release of a limited edition Trump digital trading card NFT on truth social, and in 2023, he released the Win Trump Prizes NFT on Polygon. The benefits include dinner with Trump, autographed souvenirs, 1v1 meetings, etc.

In May 2024, the Trump campaign explicitly accepted cryptocurrency donations as campaign funds, formalizing its crypto-friendly attitude.

Biden

Bidens latest attitude towards cryptocurrencies is reflected in his veto of the bill to overturn SEC SAB 121. The core content of SAB 121 is that companies that hold cryptocurrencies are required to record the cryptocurrencies held by customers as liabilities on their balance sheets. This content has always been considered too strict and hinders custodians or companies from holding cryptocurrencies on behalf of customers. Biden stated in his veto letter that overturning SAB 121 will weaken the SECs power in accounting matters and his government will not support measures that harm consumers and consumer welfare.

Therefore, compared with Trump, Bidens attitude towards cryptocurrencies is more conservative. The next opportunity for Biden to express his views on cryptocurrencies is the FIT 21 Act, which mainly provides a regulatory framework for digital assets and allocates the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over digital assets based on whether the relevant blockchain is functional, non-functional or decentralized. The bill has passed the House of Representatives and still needs to be voted on by the Senate and signed by the President before it can become formal law.

SECs attitude towards crypto regulation

During Trumps tenure from 2016 to 2020, Trump was anti-crypto and the SEC chairman was Jay Clayton. Jay Clayton was cautious about cryptocurrencies and mainly cracked down on fraudulent ICO activities and crypto exchange platforms. The most typical cases were against Block.one, Ripple Labs and Telegram (against Ton), and other cases were more about individuals or companies illegally issuing tokens.

Biden appointed Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman in April 2021. Gary Gensler once stated that he was a Bitcoin centrist minimalist, so in the early days of Genslers tenure, the crypto industry speculated that his appointment as SEC Chairman would be beneficial to the ترقی of crypto. However, Gensler and Clayton are cautious about non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, believing that all tokens are securities. This statement seems to have loosened on June 5, 2024, but it is not explicitly crypto-friendly. During Genslers tenure, the SECs cases against crypto far exceeded those during Claytons tenure, and the number of cases against exchanges increased significantly. The exchanges that were sued include Poloniex, Coinbase, Bittrex, Binance, and Kraken. Judging from the number of cases and targets of prosecution against crypto by the SEC, Bidens attitude towards crypto during his administration was more conservative.

Note: From June 6, 2023 to December 31, 2023, the SEC filed 14 cases targeting cryptocurrencies, and from January 1, 2024 to June 10, 2024, there were 6 cases targeting cryptocurrencies that year.

Election Process

Key election time points

The Republican National Convention will be held from July 15 to July 18 to decide the Republican candidate and platform. Trump has already won the Republican nomination.

From August 19 to August 22, the Democratic National Convention will decide the Democratic candidate and political platform. The candidate is confirmed to be Biden.

Biden and Trump will debate on June 27 and September 10, which may have a significant impact on the final election results.

November 5th, the day of the presidential election.

Key events: Impact of the hush money case

Trump was found guilty of all 34 counts in the hush money criminal case. The judge will make a verdict on July 11, which could theoretically include imprisonment and a huge fine. Trump plans to appeal the hush money case. Even if he is found guilty of the hush money case, it does not legally affect Trumps continued campaign for the US presidency.

An Ipsos and ABC News survey in April also showed that 16% of Trump supporters would reconsider their votes if Trump was convicted. According to racetotheWH, which tracks the latest poll results, there are currently 8.8% of uncertain votes, with Trumps approval rating temporarily leading. If Trump is convicted and sentenced, the number of uncertain votes will increase to 17%, and Bidens approval rating will be higher than Trumps.

The hush money conviction has boosted Trumps donations. In April, the amount of funds raised was about $76 million, exceeding Bidens $51 million. In the disclosure of the Trump team in May, the funds raised by the team exceeded $400 million, mainly due to small donations, with an average donation amount of about $70. According to federal regulations, the specific amount will be announced at the end of June. It should be noted that in the early stage of the 2020 campaign, the Trump teams campaign funds were also very strong, but in the later stage of the campaign, the financial situation of the Biden team was better. Strong campaign funds can bring some advantages, but they cannot guarantee the final election results.

The importance of cryptocurrencies in the election (is it hype enough?)

A poll published by Paradigm on March 14 showed that 19% of registered U.S. voters have purchased cryptocurrencies, concluding that “a fifth of the country’s population is not a niche group.” کرپٹو holders are willing to switch political parties.

Swing states are the core battlegrounds of the election. According to polls, the main swing states this year are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and potential swing states are Nevada, North Carolina and Minnesota.

According to a DGC survey in Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania and Arizona in May, 26% of respondents said they were concerned about the candidates stance on cryptocurrencies, and 21% said cryptocurrencies were an important issue to consider during the election. 55% of people are worried that policymakers will stifle innovation through excessive regulation, so the next president needs to be crypto-friendly.

According to a poll released by CBS News on April 29, voters in the three swing states in the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan) are most concerned about economic issues, mainly growth and inflation. Since Biden took office in the first quarter of 2021, the US GDP has grown by more than 8% after deducting inflation, but the economic growth of the three swing states mentioned above lags far behind the national average, especially Wisconsin, where GDP has only grown by 3.1% in nearly four years.

If candidates want to win votes in swing states, economic issues remain the core, and it is not ruled out that candidates will mention the issue of cryptocurrency again to win young votes.

US election-themed meme tokens

As the theme of the election, the price of meme tokens is highly volatile and involves more risks, including but not limited to: changes in candidates crypto attitudes and campaign slogans, and the low probability of exchanges listing tokens. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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