Domer ile Diyalog: Polymarket'te bir numaralı yatırımcı nasıl olunur?

Original author: Thor Hartvigsen, Thlither, hyphin

Original translation: LlamaC

(Portfolio: DAYBREAKER, About Tomo: Illustrator for the eth Foundation)

“Recommendation: Polymarket is a successful case in the crypto space, providing clear advantages over centralized platforms. Learn how Domer, as a top trader at Polymarket, has gained experience in adversarial gaming, stock trading, and event trading, as well as his Unique insights into trading psychology and market forecasting to achieve trading success.

tanıtmak

Polymarket has become one of the most prominent success stories in the cryptocurrency space this year, attracting tens of thousands of daily active users and generating hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume per month. As the largest blockchain-powered prediction market, it is more popular than centralized alternatives. It has clear advantages and proves that cryptocurrencies can bring real innovation.

Last week, the On Chain Times team had the pleasure of speaking with Domer, also known as “JustKen” on the Polymarket leaderboard. Domer is the top 1 trader on the Polymarket platform in terms of volume and profitability. He has participated in over 5,000 markets. Trading, with a total trading volume of nearly $300 million, has unique insights into the prediction market and election prediction field.

In the interview, Domer talked about his professional background, prediction market trading framework, trading psychology, and more.

Chat with Domer

How did you get started with politics forecasting? What made you decide to become a full-time politics trader?

I became an online poker player by accident. I started playing online poker in the mid-2000s, which was the golden age of online poker and it was relatively easy to make money as a young person (before the US government shut it down). After graduating from college, I I didnt last long in my job before I decided to go full-time poker. I randomly clicked around on a website and saw that there were other things to trade besides sports. This led me to trading movie box office (again, before the US government shut it down), and then soon Quickly enter the politics world through a website called Intrade (before the US government shut down Intrade). I have had an affinity for politics since I was a kid, so I had a lot of fun trying to predict the various details of the 2008 campaign. I made a lot of big (relatively speaking) wins, and then I quit poker to trade this stuff. Prediction markets are basically poker in slow motion, and you can beat your opponents with more research. And this is all in the news, Or something you at least kind of care about.

Let me expand on this answer a little bit, to put it in a bigger picture, I come from two different backgrounds, one as a poker player and the other as a stock trader. Ultimately, I transitioned from both fields for different reasons. : Poker has a lot of variables, while stock trading has unclear and sometimes long time periods.

In poker, you can play perfectly and still lose money. You can actually play optimally for many, many hours and still lose money. The fluctuations in money can be stressful and honestly stupid. In theory, poker can alternate between being extremely boring and extremely risky.

Then when it comes to stocks, you can be absolutely right about a company, but it may take several years to see that judgment validated. Let me use a simple example to illustrate: The first time I traded stocks was in the 2000s I discovered at the time that McDonalds owned the land on which almost all of its restaurants were located, and that land was rapidly appreciating in the real estate bubble. They had a real estate empire, which should have added more value to their stock price. That should have been worth at least a few extra cents to the stock price. 100% points, maybe more. But Wall Street didnt really realize that until years after I bought in. So you can be right about one aspect of a company and turn blue in the face, but that doesnt mean its will make you any money in the stock market. The vagaries of the market in the short term can be silly and irrational.

At the end of the day, I love looking for an edge, and I love trading, and prediction markets are the best and most fun way Ive found to do it. As for the US Government, they basically forced me out of the country (temporarily), but it looks like their regulatory policies It may be coming to an end, as they are losing the court of prediction markets. Hope is floating in the air.

You are the most profitable trader ever on Polymarket. Have you noticed that people are disproportionately copying your trades? Reverse your trades? Seeking to become your teammates or counterparties?

For copy trading, the answer is yes, but then it is no. I place a lot of orders and lose a lot of orders. I have a high risk tolerance and sufficient funds. So many people will copy my trades. Then once I lost, I gave up. At this stage in my career, I think I probably lost a little more orders than I won, but I won more money than I lost. Ill leave that puzzle for you to figure out.

About teammates – I get a lot of self-serving advice. I have a core group of people that I trust and talk to. To most people I may look like Im just sitting there trading alone, but in reality Im pretty much Constantly discuss my event trade orders with others to get feedback. I am smart, but not always, and I am definitely not the smartest person, so it is important to talk to smart people and get a reality check. Trading as a career is a very ronin-like existence. But you also need to talk to other ronin, or your career wont last long. Haha.

In your post about EIGEN transferability you mentioned that you have been buying at 20 cents because you think the odds of success are close to 50/50. Can you explain in more detail how you came to this conclusion? Is this a purely qualitative judgment, or do you take other more specific data into account in your mental calculations?

I think event trading can be a process. Usually they start with intuition. I often do a lot of small intuitive trades. But when you move to larger trades, you need to rely on more than intuition, and sometimes you dont have much time to do it. So in that case, I was looking at what CZ was going to be facing. I talked to some experts. Based on my research, I thought he would be out of prison in early October. But usually you look at situations that have never been seen before. CZ The richest person ever to go to jail anywhere in the world (I think). You cant use Jimmy Walnuts scamming his local laundromat out of $500 as a rehber to predicting a $50 billion guys future in the criminal justice system. What will happen. So its a very inexact science. He ended up going to jail about a week earlier than I expected, so he was a few days ahead of EIGEN, and I lost the event trading contract. But even if I lost , which is also a remarkable deal.

For large positions, liquidity can be both an opportunity and a constraint. Does market liquidity on Polymarket affect your trading decisions? If so, how? Have you ever encountered situations where liquidity limited your ability to enter or exit a position? Condition?

Liquidity is interesting, and I guess I don’t think about it too much anymore, except in certain specific situations.

As for exits – if there is a slippage on a trade, for a small, intuitive bet, I wouldnt care about liquidity. For a large, well-researched trade, I wouldnt care if I wanted to exit, so I don’t care about liquidity. This might apply to situations where I’m making a medium-sized trade where I think I might have an edge but I’m not entirely sure, and I might be hesitant to over-invest if liquidity is low. New information comes out and you could be stuck in illiquid markets. The answer is “it depends.”

As for entering a position – I think everyone would like to have unlimited liquidity to enter a position, haha. Yes, limited liquidity will be a challenge for almost every trade I want to make. But I will say Yes, high liquidity can be a bad thing if you end up trading more than you intended just because you can. So be aware that high liquidity in the market can tempt you to overinvest. I may have overinvested because of high liquidity, I could be wrong about this.

It seems like you make hundreds or even thousands of trades a day. What percentage of your trading is automated vs. manual?

“No one believed me, but it was all manual. I had a large order book, so most of my trades were my orders being matched, rather than me manually entering new trades.”

You trade across a wide range of forecast categories, from politics to macroeconomics. Do you find certain types of markets more predictable or profitable than others? How does your strategy differ between categories?

Thats a good question. I should think about it. I do have a vague idea of what Im good at.

But in general, I like to keep an eye on the world, so I like to place orders on a wide variety of events. I also like to be in the market for new things that Im not familiar with. Because if Im not familiar with it, chances are pretty much everyone else is too. Unfamiliar. So we all started with very little knowledge and tried to see who could figure it out the best. It was kind of like a combination of a competition and a puzzle.

To digress a little and talk about people’s “familiarity” with things, I’ve found that sometimes super experts in a field are actually very bad at predicting the things they’re experts in. This is because they overestimate their expertise.

As the largest trader on Polymarket, you have unique insight into what generates trading activity. With the US presidential election in less than 6 weeks, Polymarket will face two new pressures: 1) They need security Settling over $1 billion in trades, and 2) they need to establish a new dominant market after the election market ends. How do you think about these two challenges? What would you look for from Polymarket as we move towards this moment?

I don’t really see settlement as a stressor. Polymarket has settled tens of thousands of markets totaling billions of dollars. The US election market is going to be huge and potentially very contentious, but at the end of the day someone will be sworn in as the next president. I don’t think the settlement mechanism itself is a source of stress for a president (if no one is sworn in and a civil war breaks out, the world probably has bigger problems to worry about than Polymarket settlement). By the way, if you’re worried about settlement , you can always sell your winning shares to someone like me for $0.999!

In terms of the next big market, the U.S. presidential election is by far the biggest market in prediction markets. It is one of the largest team sports in the world, with hundreds of millions (billions?) of people at least loosely rooting for a particular So you certainly can’t replicate that kind of volume with a single market.

But there is no doubt that prediction markets in general are exploding. I remember the first “big” market after joining Polymarket in early 2021. It was the ship stuck in the Suez Canal. It blocked the passage of world trade. Almost all of the world Everyone on the site was placing orders like crazy. Reports were written about this market on Polymarket. And the total volume? Not even $500,000. If the same situation happened today, If a new ETF were to occur, the volume in the same market could easily exceed $50 million, or even more.

To use an analogy, in 2021, Polymarket was like a small sandbox with a few kids playing. Now it has become a big beach with thousands of people. In a few years, it may become An island with many sandy beaches.

There are always emerging interesting markets, there are elections around the world, and you know what, the 2028 campaign will begin right after the next president is inaugurated. I hear Vance is going to be the Republican favorite.

What advice would you give to a trader who has dabbled in stocks/options/cryptocurrencies but has never traded binary event contracts? How would you explain your Polymarket strategy to someone just getting started?

First, give it a try. Deposit $10 or $100, or whatever amount you want. The worst that can happen is that you have some fun or excitement, and then lose it all. If thats the worst that can happen, then youre actually Not too bad, haha.

The second point I want to make is that you don’t have to be forced to predict any market or trade any single thing. Just because everyone is trading the presidential election doesn’t mean you need to be in it. There are hundreds of markets on the site right now. A variety of topics are covered. Look for areas where you think there might be an advantage. Try to find an advantage. If you find one, great, order it! If not, thats ok, you dont need to do anything, keep looking around for other Chance.

Dont see anything you like, but have an interesting idea youd like to order? Join our Discord group and suggest the market you want.

As far as strategy is concerned, I suggest that you follow this general guideline when placing orders: place orders based on your edge. If you dont find an edge, dont place orders unless you are deliberately placing orders for fun (such as bet on the game you are watching). If you find an edge but are not sure if it will really work, bet a little less. If you think you have found a big edge, bet big. This may sound simple and even Its a little silly, but its a powerful and important concept. A lot of people place too many orders without any advantage.

I really enjoyed reading your X post about the Venezuelan presidential election. It taught me a lot about what happened, but what did it teach you as an event contract trader? Did it change the way you approach events that seem likely to Will there be a controversial market approach?

On Polymarket, almost all markets settle without any disputes. Definitely over 99.5% of markets settle with no issues or only a few insignificant disputes.

But some rare controversies are extremely controversial. Controversies are tricky. They can be both funny and silly, engaging and stressful. New users should avoid them like the plague unless they are masochists or Know what you are getting yourself into. I have experienced both failures and victories in controversy, but I remember the failures with about 100 times the clarity of the victories.

In the case of Venezuela, the opposition candidate may well have won the election, but the president in power manipulated the results and declared himself the winner. I suspect this happens at least semi-regularly around the world, with the ruling party manipulating elections to If that were all, the ruling party would be marked as the winner on Polymarket. But this time things get really interesting because the opposition anticipated electoral fraud and made a huge effort to prove it. They won the election, recruited thousands of volunteers and kept the proof of vote counts. They effectively proved they had won the election. The ruling party was caught off guard and quickly produced a spreadsheet of the real results. , but botched it, exposing the numbers they had just presented as impossible and fabricated. Ultimately, the UMA made a very controversial ruling that the evidence was sufficient to show that the opposition had won, despite the unlikely Let them take power (we’ll see, loose negotiations are ongoing). If it weren’t for the extremely strong chain of evidence and the obviously faked spreadsheet, this dictator would probably win on Polymarket.

Regarding my approach to controversy, unfortunately, since I’m invested in a lot of markets, I have to be involved in it. But after being hurt multiple times by UMA (my main criticism is that they don’t care about what they’re doing, and people who don’t care usually don’t care about what they do), I try to strictly limit the time I spend on debate. There is a group of users on Polymarket who are dedicated to trying to convince UMA in the dispute process, which involves a lot of nepotism and backroom dealing. It is all very unseemly and ridiculous. , even bordering on fraud, but I’ll leave that aside for now. However, keep this in mind when I answer questions about tokens later.

What do you think of non-blockchain platforms like Kalshi or PredictIt? Do you use them or is most of your trading volume on Polymarket? Do you often look for arbitrage opportunities between different markets for the same event?

I have used Kalshi and PredictIt in the past and would recommend them! But I don’t use them as much anymore because Polymarket has grown so big and it has become a full-on adventure platform for me.

I often look for arbitrage opportunities, but so many people are doing that and these days those opportunities can disappear quickly.

You have to be careful with arbitrage and make sure there aren’t very subtle and nuanced differences between the markets, otherwise you could theoretically lose money on both platforms.

Prediction markets like Polymarket are becoming increasingly popular, especially for predicting major political and economic events. Looking ahead, how do you think these markets will develop? Do you think they have the potential to become influential enough to So much so that it can actually shape real-world outcomes, rather than just predict them?

I think these markets will become an important class of financial contracts that are so widely cited and referenced that they become commonplace and commonplace.

One of the largest markets on Polymarket that doesn’t get a lot of attention is the Fed’s actions. These markets are currently trading tens of millions of dollars because it is both unpredictable and very important. There is already a similar “prediction” in financial markets. Pazars” and is often cited – CME (and its FedWatch chart). You’ll see these numbers all over the financial web and in news articles. What you hear less (but this will change) are the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi The traders in these markets are more accurate than the CME. Yes, amateurs are more accurate than professionals. In forecasting, accuracy is key, so you will see media quotes evolve over time to reflect this. a little.

In terms of influencing real world events, I think its more of a philosophical question. Personally, coming from a poker background, one of the rules of poker is dont knock on the glass. If theres a bad player at the table, a If you are a fish, you dont let him know that he is a fish, otherwise he might change his behavior (such as leaving, or learning more). In this sense, I dont agree with trying to influence events to solve market problems. I think both There should be a wall between the two. Exit philosophical question – whether it is realistic to not influence world events, I dont know. The tail may be starting to wag the dog.

What is your favorite overlooked PM contract right now and why? Which new market needs to be launched ASAP?

Well, if there was an overlooked contract, I would probably try to buy as many shares as possible as quietly as possible, so I wouldnt be sharing this information anyway (and there is indeed a market for that right now!). But I Ill give you a roundabout answer:

I think people have become accustomed to the assumption that the US election will be close, and I think a savvy trader might find opportunities to bet against the conventional wisdom that “it’s going to be very close!” if Trump or A surprise victory by Kamala would net them a nice profit, a realistic possible outcome, even if it didn’t seem that way from media coverage.

There has been debate over whether projects really need to launch their own tokens, despite the clearly lucrative nature of Jeton Generation Events (TGEs). In your opinion, would a native token improve the user experience of Polymarket? What would become Easy? What will be more difficult?

This may offend some people, but I am not a proponent of cryptocurrency. At least not yet. I feel that most of the cryptocurrency is just potential and does not really take advantage of blockchain/ledger technology. Unfortunately, A lot of crypto is hype, scams, hacks, and people trying to make a quick buck. Ive spoken to two people who have been in jail for ridiculous crypto crimes. Ive been paying close attention to airdrops (because theyre popular on Polymarket). Market! ), but it is completely unclear why many projects are issuing tokens, which is ridiculous. I won’t name them!

Against the backdrop of my skepticism towards cryptocurrencies and my skepticism towards airdrops, I will say that I strongly support Polymarket Token. And it’s not because I’m biased! Let me explain.

I think the potential of cryptocurrency, in my opinion, is in the form of something like Polymarket. This is the largest prediction market ever built with smart contracts, and every transaction is on-chain. Your money is not Instead of being sent to some company, your money is stored in a wallet that you control. The determination of the results is decentralized (well, mostly, but I’ll get to that later). All of this is a big deal. In my opinion, Polymarket is a huge innovation in multiple ways. I may be biased, but I think it is the first killer app built on the blockchain.

If someone asked me if they should get involved in crypto, I’d probably ask “What part of crypto?” and “…are you sure?” But if someone asked me if they should get involved in Polymarket, I’d say “Yes.” , I will help you get started! 」

So the beauty of having a token for this is that this prediction market has thousands of markets that need to be solved. As I discussed before, 95% of the solutions are simple, but sometimes confusing and difficult. Token holders with a vested interest in success should be the ones to decide on solutions to unclear markets. Currently, UMA votes on disputes, but I think their interests are somewhat aligned with Polymarket, but not completely aligned, and if interests If there is not complete agreement, then the voters themselves may lose interest. This is indeed the case. What is disappointing is their lack of interest. UMA’s ownership of the tokens itself is also somewhat centralized, so you will find that very few people Many of these disputes are decided by the decentralized exchange. This undermines what could otherwise be a fully decentralized exchange. A token that can help smooth the dispute resolution process would solve many problems. If Polymarket is a killer app, then the killer app needed is The function is the process of resolving disputes.

I saw you listed a book by Kahneman in your book recommendations – heuristics, risk/loss aversion psychology and dual systems thinking all play a role in gambling. What do you think Kahneman would think of this? Polymarket? Which of his teachings often come to your mind?

It’s no exaggeration to say that I think about what Kahneman and Tversky wrote about bias every day. Their findings are simple — and a little obvious in some ways — but also very profound. Some of the things I think about include: Price anchoring, endowment effect, loss aversion, availability bias. There are many others. If you want to be a top trader or a top trader in any field, you should have a deeper understanding of the biases that try to control your brain. learn.

Daniel Kahnemann would love Polymarket. He is an advocate of prediction markets.

Finally, I would say that it is difficult to get rid of biases, and you must be vigilant to prevent losing money because of them. I like to say (and believe) that it is easy to make money in the prediction market. The future is unpredictable, but it is not that It is unpredictable. You can easily find markets where you can make money. But the really hard part about predicting the markets is avoiding losing a lot of money on stupid things. Because while it is easy to make money predicting the markets, it is even easier to lose money. Read Kahneman and Trump I try to avoid some of these pitfalls with my book, because many foolish trades are only seen as foolish by the trader after the fact. And this is not necessarily a case of hindsight bias!

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This article is sourced from the internet: Dialogue with Domer: How to become the number one trader on Polymarket?

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