Web3 Oyun Yatırım İncelemesi: Kısa Ömürlü Bir Geçmiş ve Yeniden Doğan Bir Gelecek

Orijinal yazar: Vladimir Sergeevih

Orijinal çeviri: TechFlow

2020 is a critical year not only for the gaming industry, but also for the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin soared from about $7,200 at the beginning of the year to $29,000 at the end of the year, sparking widespread interest in blockchain projects. With the intersection of the gaming and crypto industries, the Web3 gaming market has emerged, and many projects have flourished under the earn while playing model.

While we have been focusing on the gaming side of Web3 gaming since then, we have not yet explored in depth the tight connection between cryptocurrency dynamics and investment activity in the space. In this research, we explore several key questions:

• How does Bitcoin’s price volatility affect investment activity in the crypto gaming space?

• How do investors differ in their interest in content-oriented and platform-oriented crypto gaming startups?

• Which startups have received the most notable investments and what are their exit potentials?

The impact of Bitcoin price on crypto game investments

Our data dates back to 2020. At the beginning of the year, investment activity in the crypto gaming sector was relatively sluggish, mainly due to the general lack of interest in cryptocurrencies, coupled with market volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lack of projects that effectively combined gaming and crypto. However, with the start of the bull cycle at the end of 2020 and reaching a peak in early 2021, the situation has changed significantly.

The surge in Bitcoin prices has not only rekindled widespread interest in the crypto market, but also attracted new creators and investors, driving new trends in the crypto gaming space. In the first quarter of 2022, a total of 85 deals raised up to $1.6 billion. Our analysis covers only private investments and excludes crypto public listings and token sales.

2022 is the beginning of the crypto winter. In March, Ronin, the blockchain service owned by Axie Infinity, hacklendi and about $625 million in assets were stolen. In May, the collapse of LUNA further exacerbated the markets difficulties. At the end of the year, another shocking news came out that the large cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed. Despite these events, the reduction in investment activities did not appear immediately, and the downward trend gradually became apparent after several quarters, which was related to the time lag in transaction announcements and the delay in market response.

By 2023, trading activity remained weak and fell to its lowest point in the third quarter, coinciding with the time when Bitcoin showed signs of recovery. It is worth noting that the growth of investment activity is not completely synchronized with the fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. Although a new bull run has begun and Bitcoin surpassed its previous highs in the first half of 2024, investment activity in the crypto gaming sector has not yet returned to previous levels. This is partly due to the closure of many projects and the fact that the development of Web3 games is still in its infancy and is still exploring its customer base and business model.

Investment activity in the crypto gaming space

Before we dive into the deal analysis, we need to understand some basic background. Crypto gaming startups can be roughly divided into two main categories:

— Content: Includes companies developing games and interactive experiences that leverage blockchain technology.

— Platforms and technologies: Includes companies that provide the infrastructure, tools, and technologies required for crypto games, such as blockchain infrastructure, development tools, and community platforms for games.

In 2020, the NFT concept — the core of most Web3 games — remained relatively niche. A total of 9 deals were announced that year, raising $46 million (4 in the content sector and 5 in the platform and technology sector). This low level of activity reflected the early stages of the industry and the limited mainstream awareness at the time. However, this situation has changed dramatically in 2021.

As NFTs and the Metaverse have entered the mainstream and received increasing media attention, investment activity has increased significantly. In 2021, we saw 79 deals in the content sector and 46 deals in the platform and technology sector, with a total transaction value of $2.9 billion, a significant increase compared to the previous year. This growth is partly due to the popularity of play and earn games and the success of early pioneers like Axie Infinity, which have quickly become the focus of crypto enthusiasts and investors.

Note: For a clearer presentation, items with mixed content and platforms have been excluded.

Investments in content creators initially accounted for 40% of total funding rounds in 2020 and have significantly outpaced platform and tech startups in recent years, accounting for more than 60% of total funding and transactions in the Web3 space, both in terms of number of rounds and total capital invested. This may be due to the greater potential for scale and/or faster returns for game development studios compared to other participants in the gaming ecosystem. In the first half of 2022, the investment boom reached its peak, with content startups completing 96 funding rounds, while platform and tech companies completed 62 rounds.

Some of the most notable VC-led investments during this period include Forte, Sorare, Yugalabs, and Mysten Labs. Together, these four startups have attracted nearly $2.4 billion, accounting for nearly 30% of the total investment in crypto games so far in 2020-2024.

Among the most active investors, Hong Kong-based Animoca Markaları (ASX: AB 1) stands out, participating in almost all major deals. Animoca Brands has participated in 109 rounds of financing with a total amount of US$2.3 billion, making it a leader in the field. Another important investor is Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), a fund that often appears in our venture capital rankings , which has invested US$2.7 billion through 28 transactions. Griffin Gaming Partners Ve BITKRAFT are involved in both Web3 and gaming, while Çokgen , Merit Circle Ve Spartan Group focus mainly on the crypto field. Today, the market is no longer dominated by crypto companies alone; mainstream venture capital firms are also increasingly keen to discover and invest in emerging technologies in search of excess returns.

Exits of Web3 Gaming Startup'lar

However, the situation in the MA market is different. This market is still in its early stages, and many startups have not yet grown to the point where they can become acquisition targets. Although the P2E and Metaverse trends have attracted the attention of investors, the implementation of these concepts has not been ideal in most cases.

Although there are some acquirers in the market, such transactions are still relatively rare. For example, Wemades acquisition of SundayToz for $115 million was the largest acquisition in the sector. Meanwhile, Animoca Brands has been involved in at least six MA transactions, but the financial details of most of the transactions were not disclosed.

Compared to the more common MA activities in the traditional gaming industry, there are fewer exit cases in the crypto gaming market. For example, NFT Techs acquisition of Run It Wild for $6 million or Pioneer S acquisition of Bark Ventures for $4 million are small-scale MA common in this field. We recorded 33 MA transactions from 2020 to 2024, with a total disclosed amount of $146 million.

The stark contrast between high investments and limited exits highlights that the crypto gaming industry is still in its early stages. While it is expected that MA activity may increase, the industry first needs to demonstrate its maturity.

Temel Çıkarımlar

• Bitcoin-related investments surge: The Bitcoin bull run in 2021 and 2022 significantly boosted investment activity. However, the current bull run has failed to inspire the same level of investor interest and confidence as in the past.

• Crypto winter effect: Although the decline in Bitcoin prices did not directly affect investment activities, a series of negative news exacerbated the trend and eroded the trust of crypto enthusiasts and investors.

• Advantages of content-based investments: Content creators continue to attract more funding than platforms and technology companies and achieve the largest exits in the Web3 space.

• High investment and limited MA: Despite high investment, MA activity remains low, indicating that the market is still in its early stages. As the crypto gaming market matures, we expect the frequency and scale of MA activity to increase, gradually approaching that of the traditional gaming industry.

There is no one-size-fits-all path to success. Investors and developers recognize that new opportunities are emerging as emerging technologies integrate into everyday life. However, there is currently no widely accepted business strategy in the market to create unique gaming experiences, and current practices are mostly speculation by investors. Major studios are trying different business models: some focus on play to earn mechanisms, while others rely primarily on one-time NFT resales or token listings to generate revenue.

Funding activity for Web3 games began to pick up in the first half of 2024. Will this trend continue, or become a thing of the past? Will we see top games leverage blockchain technology to increase player engagement? These questions remain unanswered and will affect the future direction of the market and the price of Bitcoin.

This article is sourced from the internet: Web3 Game Investment Review: A Short-lived Past and a Reborn Future

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