Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.05–07.12): CPI declines, mainstream currency prices rise and fall

CPI data fell, mainstream currency prices rose and fell

Veri kaynağı: https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733

Expectations for interest rate cuts have increased significantly this year, with the probability of the first rate cut in September rising to 80%, and the probability of a rate cut in July reappearing. The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise before the release of CPI data, and then fell back after the data was released. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 3.3% in May to 3% in June, the lowest growth rate since June last year; month-on-month, it turned from flat in May to a decline of 0.1% in June, a 0.1 percentage point drop from the previous month, the first negative growth since May 2020, showing signs of continued slowdown in inflation.

There are about 17 days until the next Fed meeting (August 1, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Piyasa teknik ve duyarlılık ortamı analizi

Duygu Analizi Bileşenleri

Teknik göstergeler

Fiyat eğilimi

BTC prices rose 0.51% and ETH prices rose 1.3% over the past week.

Yukarıdaki resim BTC'nin geçen haftaki fiyat tablosudur.

Yukarıdaki resim ETH'nin geçen haftaki fiyat tablosudur.

Tabloda geçtiğimiz haftadaki fiyat değişim oranları gösterilmektedir.

Fiyat Hacim Dağılım Grafiği (Destek ve Direnç)

In the past week, BTC and ETH fluctuated upward after forming a new dense trading area with large volumes at low levels.

Yukarıdaki resim, geçtiğimiz hafta BTC'lerin yoğun işlem alanlarının dağılımını göstermektedir.

Yukarıdaki resim, geçtiğimiz hafta ETH'lerin yoğun işlem alanlarının dağılımını gösteriyor.

Tablo, geçen hafta BTC ve ETH'nin haftalık yoğun işlem aralığını gösteriyor.

Hacim ve Açık Faiz

Over the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on July 5; open interest for both BTC and ETH continued to decline.

Yukarıdaki resmin üst kısmı BTC'nin fiyat eğilimini, ortası işlem hacmini, alt kısmı açık pozisyonları, açık mavi 1 günlük ortalamayı, turuncu ise 7 günlük ortalamayı göstermektedir. K çizgisinin rengi mevcut durumu temsil eder, yeşil fiyat artışının işlem hacmi tarafından desteklendiğini, kırmızı pozisyonların kapatıldığını, sarı yavaş yavaş biriken pozisyonları, siyah ise kalabalık durumu ifade eder.

Yukarıdaki resmin üst kısmı ETH'nin fiyat eğilimini, ortası işlem hacmini, alt kısmı açık pozisyonları, açık mavi 1 günlük ortalamayı ve turuncu ise 7 günlük ortalamayı göstermektedir. K çizgisinin rengi mevcut durumu temsil eder, yeşil fiyat artışının işlem hacmi tarafından desteklendiğini, kırmızı pozisyonların kapandığını, sarı yavaş yavaş pozisyonların toplandığını ve siyah ise kalabalık olduğunu gösterir.

Tarihsel Volatilite ve İma Edilen Volatilite

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was highest when it fell to 7.5; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH fell synchronously.

Sarı çizgi tarihsel oynaklığı, mavi çizgi ima edilen oynaklığı, kırmızı nokta ise 7 günlük ortalamayı gösteriyor.

Olay odaklı

Over the past week, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise before the release of CPI data, and then fell back after the data was released.

Duygu Göstergeleri

Momentum Duyarlılığı

In the past week, among Bitcoin/gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, gold was the strongest, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.

Yukarıdaki resim farklı varlıkların geçen haftaki eğilimini göstermektedir.

Borç Verme Oranı_Kredi Verme Duyarlılığı

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 12%, and short-term interest rates fell to 3.8%.

Sarı çizgi USD faiz oranının en yüksek fiyatı, mavi çizgi en yüksek fiyat olan 75%, kırmızı çizgi ise en yüksek fiyat olan 75%'nin 7 günlük ortalamasıdır.

Tablo, geçmişteki farklı elde tutma günlerinde ABD doları faiz oranlarının ortalama getirisini göstermektedir

Fonlama Oranı_Sözleşme Kaldıraç Duyarlılığı

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 8.8%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

Mavi çizgi BTC'nin Binance'teki fonlama oranı, kırmızı çizgi ise 7 günlük ortalamasıdır

Tablo, geçmişteki farklı tutma günleri için BTC ücretlerinin ortalama getirisini göstermektedir.

Piyasa Korelasyonu_Konsensüs Duyarlılığı

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week remained at around 0.73, and the consistency between different varieties fell from a high level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Pazar Genişliği_Genel Duygu

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 9.4% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 33.8% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 5.5% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 10% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.

Yukarıdaki resim [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos, vb., fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, suşi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, veteriner, dalgalar, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] Her genişlik göstergesinin 30 günlük oranı

Özetle

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fluctuated upward after heavy volume at low levels, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached their highest levels when they fell to the low point on July 5. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum is declining. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum also fell simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the entire market has maintained a weak trend in the past week. CPI data fell, and the prices of mainstream currencies rose and fell when the data was released.

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