การสังเกตการณ์ Bitcoin รายสัปดาห์ของ EMC Labs (7.1~7.7): การชำระบัญชีทวีความรุนแรงขึ้น เอเชียขายชอร์ตสหรัฐฯ และซื้อที่จุดต่ำสุด

เขียนโดย : ชาง2046

ข้อมูล ความคิดเห็น และคำตัดสินเกี่ยวกับตลาด โครงการ สกุลเงิน ฯลฯ ที่กล่าวถึงในรายงานนี้มีไว้สำหรับการอ้างอิงเท่านั้นและไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำการลงทุนใดๆ ทั้งสิ้น

สัปดาห์การตลาด

BTC adjusted more sharply last week, falling 10.87% and fluctuating 16.44%, breaking through the new high consolidation range. The lowest point was $53,400, which was nearly 28% lower than the highest point. Doubts about whether the bull market is still there have further intensified.

We tend to believe that we are still in a bull market structure, but before the US interest rate cut is clear, market liquidity faces unprecedented challenges, coupled with the debt repayment factor of the rapid rise in March this year, there will be a relatively long downward adjustment. Overall, this will make time and space for the bull market in the macro rhythm of the big interest rate cut next year.

Federal Reserve and economic data

Last week, the unemployment data released by the United States was higher than expected. UBS still believes that a rate cut in September is a high probability event, and a soft landing of the US economy may have become a reality. This Thursday, the US CPI for June will be released. If it continues to be lower than expected, the possibility of a rate cut in September will continue to increase.

การระดมทุน

All signs show that Asian funds dominated this round of short-selling. They took full advantage of the market news that the German government and Mt.Gox disposed of a total of 190,000 BTC, chose to launch an offensive on Thursday when the US market was closed for the Independence Day, and superimposed the normal window period of the weekend.

First, although Chicago CME occupies the top position in the contract market with a BTC contract holding of $7 billion, Binance鈥檚 daily contract trading volume is currently three times that of CME. Together with the top-ranked Bybit, Bitget and OKX, Asian contract exchanges have recorded a total trading volume that is six times that of CME.

Second, in terms of the inflow of US dollar stablecoins, the US compliant stablecoin USDC reversed its decline over the past year and received a total inflow of US$1.378 billion. However, USDT, which has always played a major role in net inflows and is more commonly used by Asian investors, saw a net outflow of US$586 million. This abnormal phenomenon has never happened in the past year.

Driven by the strong inflow of USDC, stablecoins finally received a net inflow of US$570 million last week, a sharp reversal of the net outflow of US$600 million in the previous week.

Third, U.S. spot ETFs achieved net inflows on three of the five trading days throughout the week. On Friday, the second day of the big drop, they saw a net inflow of $143 million on a single day, bringing the total inflow for the week to $237 million.

On the exchanges side, stablecoins added $900 million.

Chip Supply

Short-term investors sold 6,000 BTC at a loss of $520 million on July 5, and the pressure has reached the level of the last wash-out period in August and September last year.

Long-term investors sold a total of 1,000 last week, while miners continued to sell off, reducing their inventory by 2,000. At the same time, exchanges added more than 6,000 BTC to their holdings, totaling 2.975 million, indicating that there is still considerable upward pressure in the short-term market.

BTC on-chain data

BTC on-chain data continued to be sluggish, with new addresses and active addresses rebounding, but the number of transfers continued to decline. Due to the sell-off, the transfer scale increased significantly.

Ecological analysis

Although the crypto market has experienced a sharp correction along with the trend of BTC, the infrastructure ecosystem outside of BTC has shown a good rebound trend: ETHs new addresses, active addresses and transfers are in a rebound state, and ETHs active addresses have shown an upward trend on the 30-day moving average. Solanas new addresses hit a new record high on July 3, and the 30-day moving average continued to maintain a high-speed upward trend. In addition, Solana DEXs trading volume once again exceeded Ethereum this week, becoming the public chain with the largest DEX trading volume on the chain.

ตัวบ่งชี้วงจร EMC BTC

Like last week, the EMC BTC Cycle bullish indicator is 0.125, and the market is still in a bullish dormant period.

จบ

EMC Labs ก่อตั้งขึ้นโดยนักลงทุนสินทรัพย์ crypto และนักวิทยาศาสตร์ข้อมูลในเดือนเมษายน 2023 โดยมุ่งเน้นไปที่การวิจัยอุตสาหกรรมบล็อกเชนและการลงทุนในตลาดรองของ Crypto ใช้การมองการณ์ไกลของอุตสาหกรรม ข้อมูลเชิงลึก และการขุดข้อมูลเป็นความสามารถในการแข่งขันหลัก และมุ่งมั่นที่จะมีส่วนร่วมในอุตสาหกรรมบล็อกเชนที่กำลังเติบโต ผ่านการวิจัยและการลงทุน และการส่งเสริมสินทรัพย์ blockchain และ crypto เพื่อนำประโยชน์มาสู่มนุษยชาติ

สำหรับข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมกรุณาเยี่ยมชม: https://www.emc.fund

This article is sourced from the internet: EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation (7.1~7.7): Liquidation intensifies, Asia shorts the US and buys the bottom

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