The bubble has burst, is the AI Agent craze coming to an end?

Оригинал | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Автор: Голем ( @веб3_голем )

Recently, tokens in the AI Agent sector have generally pulled back.

According to GMGN data, the mainstream AI Agent token VIRTUAL in the Base ecosystem fell by more than 39% in 7 days, AIXBT fell by more than 20% in 7 days, GAME fell by more than 30% in 7 days, and LUNA fell by more than 50% in 7 days; the mainstream AI Agent token ai16z in the Solana ecosystem fell by more than 45% in 7 days, ELIZA fell by more than 48% in 7 days, and swarms and ARC fell by more than 38% in 7 days.

It has been more than three months since GOAT started a new model combining AI and Crypto, and ai16z and Virtuals carried forward the encrypted AI Agent narrative. Therefore, there are many opinions in the market that the AI Agent hype has ended, and those who have not yet cleared their positions have become the payers of this feast. Some even compare this round of AI Agent craze to a faster-paced inscription craze.

Is the AI Agent craze coming to an end? The answer is not necessarily true.

What stage has AI Agent reached?

It is undeniable that in investment we must respect the cycle, enter the market before it reaches its climax, and exit the market before the craze fades. AI Agent is currently in the squatting period before accumulating strength for a high jump.

CEX鈥檚 influence on prices continues to decrease

From the perspective of market sentiment and liquidity, people generally regard the listing of a coin on Binance, the universes largest exchange, as the end point of an on-chain target. When Binance lists a popular token spot in a sector, it also means that the sector has ushered in a double climax of market sentiment and liquidity. At the same time, the market will return to silence after a period of FOMO. However, in this round of AI Agent narrative, the impact of CEX listing on tokens may not be as great as imagined.

According to public information, Binance has launched perpetual contract trading of ai16z and swarms, and only launched AIXBT on January 10. Although the launch of ai16z and swarms contracts brought a short-term market FUD and caused the price to fall, they also rebounded later; similarly, even if Binance announced the launch of AIXBT spot, the price returned to normal after a short-term FOMO of a few hours.

According to Cointelegraph статистика , the proportion of spot криптовалютаcurrency trading volume on DEX exceeded 20% for the first time on January 7. As more and more people trade on the chain, the impact of CEX on the price of the chain will continue to decrease.

AI Agents are the Metaverse of 2025

In 2021, the whole world will be crazy about the metaverse, and in 2025, the whole world will be crazy about AI Agents.

In 2021, the Metaverse is not only popular in the web3 field, but also in web2 Internet companies. The most iconic event is that the social software giant Facebook changed its name to Meta and went all in on the Metaverse. Nvidia in 2025 is just like Meta back then, attracting attention in the AI Agent wave. Nvidia founder Huang Renxun mentioned in his keynote speech at the CES 2025 Consumer Electronics Show in the United States that more than 30 million developers around the world will have their own software assistants in the future, otherwise they will fall behind their peers. In addition, AI Agent is expected to become the next robotics industry, with an industry scale of trillions of dollars.

Web3 has always been fond of combining with hot narratives, from hot trends in the technology industry to a squirrel being killed in the United States. The 2021 metaverse craze gave birth to companies like Decentraland in web3. Putting aside derivative assets, the market value of its tokens alone exceeded $10 billion at its peak. Today, neither ai16z nor virtuals have reached a market value of tens of billions.

2025 is the year when AI Agent explodes. The traditional web2 technology industry鈥檚 pursuit of it has not yet ended, and web3 has just begun.

Is AI Agent a faster-paced version of Inscription?

In addition, there is a voice in the market that interprets AI Agent as a faster-paced version of Inscription. The two do have some similarities, such as the fair issuance of AI Agent through pump.fun is similar to the fair casting of Inscription; the AI Agent framework dispute is similar to the dispute over the Bitcoin ecosystem asset issuance protocol. Overall, there is no big difference between the frameworks, but there are subtle differences; the opening speed of targets with better narratives is similar to the short-term casting of popular assets in Inscription.

But there are also differences between them:

• AI Agent has higher market acceptance and recognition: This round of AI Agent was born in the fertile soil of Solana Meme, and has higher market acceptance. Moreover, AI Agent is not the first combination of AI and Crypto. Players have received market education before and have higher recognition.

• AI Agent is a construction from 1 to 100: Inscription was born in the barren soil of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and its ecological construction is a creation from 0 to 1; while AI Agent is a construction from 1 to 100. In terms of liquidity, Solana already has a complete infrastructure; in terms of technology, there are many references in the AI industry. Therefore, the ecological construction of AI Agent will be much faster than Inscription.

• Wider narrative scope: As mentioned earlier, 2025 is the year of the AI Agent explosion. Although web3s AI Agent is slightly different from the traditional technology industry, it is ultimately in the trend. The market scope and market participants are wider. It is a very long-term narrative, and there is even a chance of breaking the circle.

Frankly speaking, Web3 does not have a permanent narrative. The AI Agent craze may fade, but at least it is not the time for the bubble to burst. As for the reason for this large-scale callback, it is not ruled out that it is because…

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