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Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

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Bitcoin falls as Fed remains on hold

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Since inflation has fallen less quickly than expected, the Federal Reserve has kept its interest rate target range between 5.25% and 5.5% since the end of July last year, the highest level in 23 years. After the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to as low as $62,300 and then rebounded.

As the third quarter draws to a close, most market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If the fight against inflation continues to make good progress, a rate cut could be announced as early as this years September meeting. This could be a positive factor for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Historically, a lower interest rate environment is good for cryptocurrencies as investors tend to seek higher-yielding assets. Despite the uncertain economic outlook, the prospect of looser monetary policy has boosted positive sentiment toward Bitcoin. However, investors need to be mindful of the risk of prлед volatility in the short term.

There are about 47 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Технический анализ рынка и аналитика настроений

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Компоненты анализа настроений

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Технические индикаторы

Ценовой тренд

BTC price rose -0.68% and ETH price rose 0.88% over the past week.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

На изображении выше показан график цены BTC за последнюю неделю.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

На изображении выше показан график цены ETH за последнюю неделю.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

В таблице представлена скорость изменения цен за прошедшую неделю.

pctChange1Day3Day5Day7Daybtc_pctChange1.12% -2.14% -3.74% -0.68% eth_pctChange-0.91% -3.44% -1.4% 0.88%

График распределения цены и объема (поддержка и сопротивление)

In the past week, BTC and ETH broke down from the concentrated trading area and then rebounded.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

На рисунке выше показано распределение зон с плотной торговлей BTC на прошлой неделе.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

На рисунке выше показано распределение зон с плотной торговлей ETH за последнюю неделю.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

В таблице показан недельный интенсивный торговый диапазон BTC и ETH за прошедшую неделю.

Объем и открытый интерес

In the past week, the trading volumes of both BTC and ETH increased after the August 1 interest rate meeting; the open interest of both BTC and ETH increased slightly.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Верхняя часть изображения выше показывает ценовой тренд BTC, середина показывает объем торгов, нижняя часть показывает открытый интерес, голубой цвет — среднее значение за 1 день, а оранжевый — среднее значение за 7 дней. Цвет K-линии представляет текущее состояние, зеленый означает, что рост цены поддерживается объемом торгов, красный означает закрытие позиций, желтый означает медленное накопление позиций, а черный означает состояние переполненности.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Верхняя часть изображения выше показывает ценовой тренд ETH, середина — объем торгов, нижняя часть — открытый интерес, голубой цвет — среднее значение за 1 день, а оранжевый — среднее значение за 7 дней. Цвет К-линии представляет текущее состояние, зеленый означает, что рост цены поддерживается объемом торгов, красный — закрытие позиций, желтый — медленное накопление позиций, черный — переполненность.

Историческая волатильность против подразумеваемой волатильности

Historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest this past week at 8.1; implied volatility for both BTC and ETH fell.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Желтая линия — это историческая волатильность, синяя линия — подразумеваемая волатильность, а красная точка — ее среднее значение за 7 дней.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Управляемый событиями

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this past week, and after the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to a low of 62,300.

Emotional indicators

Импульс Настроения

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

На картинке выше показана динамика различных активов за последнюю неделю.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Кредитная ставка_Настроение по кредитованию

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.3%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12%.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Желтая линия — это самая высокая цена процентной ставки в долларах США, синяя линия — 75% самой высокой цены, а красная линия — 7-дневное среднее значение 75% самой высокой цены.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

В таблице показана средняя доходность процентных ставок в долларах США в разные дни владения в прошлом.

Ставка финансирования_Настроение по кредитному плечу по контракту

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 7.9%, and contract leverage sentiment is gradually recovering.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Синяя линия — это ставка финансирования BTC на Binance, а красная линия — ее среднее значение за 7 дней.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

В таблице показана средняя доходность комиссий BTC за разные дни владения в прошлом.

Рыночная корреляция_консенсус-настроение

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.5, and the consistency between different varieties fell from a high level.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Широта рынка_Общее настроение

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 42.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 20% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 35% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Подведем итог

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell after the interest rate meeting, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies increased after the interest rate meeting on August 1. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased slightly. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate has rebounded slightly from a low level, which may reflect the gradual recovery of market participants leverage sentiment towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have retreated, indicating that the overall market has continued to fall in the past week.

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