Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

Trump assassination drives Bitcoin surge

The rising probability of Trumps victory has made risky assets such as Bitcoin popular. In particular, the Republican Party mentioned in its latest campaign platform that if Trump takes offлед, it will end the suppression of cryptocurrencies, which has greatly boosted confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

The “Trump deal” is a hit.

After Trump was attacked over the weekend, a series of Trump-related assets such as U.S. Treasury yields and Bitcoin soared. This is all thanks to the fact that he survived the assassination attempt, and the American peoples support for Trump has soared.

Among them, Bitcoin rose for six consecutive days, with a total increase of 11.59% this week, reaching a high of US$66,000.

There are about 11 days until the next Fed meeting (August 1, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Технический анализ рынка и аналитика настроений

Компоненты анализа настроений

Технические индикаторы

Ценовой тренд

In the past week, BTC prices rose 11.59% and ETH prices rose 10.55%.

На изображении выше показан график цены BTC за последнюю неделю.

На изображении выше показан график цены ETH за последнюю неделю.

В таблице представлена скорость изменения цен за прошедшую неделю.

График распределения цены и объема (поддержка и сопротивление)

In the past week, BTC and ETH formed a new intensive trading area as they rose to high levels and increased in volume.

На рисунке выше показано распределение зон с плотной торговлей BTC на прошлой неделе.

На рисунке выше показано распределение зон с плотной торговлей ETH за последнюю неделю.

В таблице показан недельный интенсивный торговый диапазон BTC и ETH за прошедшую неделю.

Объем и открытый интерес

In the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they rose from July 15 to 16; the open interest of BTC and ETH both fell slightly.

Верхняя часть изображения выше показывает ценовой тренд BTC, середина показывает объем торгов, нижняя часть показывает открытый интерес, голубой цвет — среднее значение за 1 день, а оранжевый — среднее значение за 7 дней. Цвет K-линии представляет текущее состояние, зеленый означает, что рост цены поддерживается объемом торгов, красный означает закрытие позиций, желтый означает медленное накопление позиций, а черный означает состояние переполненности.

Верхняя часть изображения выше показывает ценовой тренд ETH, середина — объем торгов, нижняя часть — открытый интерес, голубой цвет — среднее значение за 1 день, а оранжевый — среднее значение за 7 дней. Цвет К-линии представляет текущее состояние, зеленый означает, что рост цены поддерживается объемом торгов, красный — закрытие позиций, желтый — медленное накопление позиций, черный — переполненность.

Историческая волатильность против подразумеваемой волатильности

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it rose to 7.16; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose synchronously.

Желтая линия — это историческая волатильность, синяя линия — подразумеваемая волатильность, а красная точка — ее среднее значение за 7 дней.

Управляемый событиями

There were no major data releases in the past week.

Индикаторы настроений

Импульс Настроения

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while Nasdaq performed the worst.

На картинке выше показана динамика различных активов за последнюю неделю.

Кредитная ставка_Настроение по кредитованию

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.9%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12.6%.

Желтая линия — это самая высокая цена процентной ставки в долларах США, синяя линия — 75% самой высокой цены, а красная линия — 7-дневное среднее значение 75% самой высокой цены.

В таблице показана средняя доходность процентных ставок в долларах США в разные дни владения в прошлом.

Ставка финансирования_Настроение по кредитному плечу по контракту

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 4.4%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

Синяя линия — это ставка финансирования BTC на Binance, а красная линия — ее среднее значение за 7 дней.

The table shows the average return of BTC fees for different holding days in the past.

Рыночная корреляция_консенсус-настроение

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week remained at around 0.9, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Широта рынка_Общее настроение

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 78% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 37% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 33% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 67.7% of the prices were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicators in the past week showed that most of the coins in the overall market rebounded and rose.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Подведем итог

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rose for 6 consecutive days, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level when they rose on July 16. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum is declining. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also risen in tandem. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have rebounded and risen, indicating that the overall market has rebounded from lows in the past week.

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