Как институты оценивают перспективы рынка в условиях неизбежности крупных колебаний?

Оригинал | Odaily Planet Daily

Автор | Наньчжи

Since Bitcoin briefly hit a high of $72,000 last Friday (June 7), the market as a whole has started another round of major crash. Tonight, the CPI and the Federal Reserve鈥檚 interest rate decision will be announced, and a new round of major fluctuations is about to come.

How do various institutions and research institutes view the market outlook? Odaily Planet Daily summarizes their main views since June 7 in this article.

Bullish: The bull market continues

10x : If BTC breaks through $72,000, it will continue to break new highs, bullish on the BTC/ETH exchange rate

10x Исследовать said in its latest market analysis report that tonights dual macro events CPI and FOMC seem difficult to predict after last weeks higher-than-expected US employment data, leading most Wall Street banks to postpone their first rate cut expectations to September or later. While the interest rate-sensitive Nasdaq continues to hit record highs, Bitcoin has fallen from $71,000 to $67,000.

If Bitcoin climbs above $72,000 ($71,946), it could break out to new highs . However, over-allocation to Ethereum (leveraged) futures could lead to a negative impact on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is more favored than Ethereum (BTC fell 5% last week, ETH fell 9%).

Comments by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler that Ethereum ETF S-1 approval will take time seem more likely to start unwinding leveraged long positions rather than repricing Wall Street鈥檚 rate expectations. Enthusiasm around Ethereum ETFs has dropped significantly, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to move downward.

Kimchi premiums are rebounding, signaling growing demand in South Korea

Recently, the Korean Bitcoin Kimchi Premium fell below 1% after being close to 10% in mid-April, and the premium is now rebounding. CryptoQuant data shows that after hitting a low of 0.62% on June 4 (when the global price was almost the same), the premium climbed to 3.42% as of June 6. Analysis points out that usually, this indicates that demand in South Korea is growing, which may push up the price of Bitcoin in the short term .

Additionally, archived data from CoinMarketCap on June 9 showed that Bitcoin was trading at $69,288 globally, while on Upbit, it was trading at $71,130, a 2.658% premium. Similar premiums were seen on Bithumb, Coinone and Korbit. Ethereum was also trading at a 2.69% premium, with a global price of $3,679 and a price of $3,778 on Upbit and other platforms. ( Bitcoin.com )

BTC鈥檚 shift from CEX to DEX means long-term bullishness

Glassnode data shows that as investors wait for the price to rise in the bull market, the user balances of Bitcoin and Ethereum on centralized exchanges have fallen sharply, with the value of Bitcoin falling to less than 2.3 million (about $158 billion) and the value of Ethereum falling to less than 16 million (about less than $58 billion). User balances of the two major cryptocurrencies have fallen to a four-year low, and analysts interpret this move as a bullish signal for the future. Because the decline in exchange balances shows that people are increasingly confident in the long-term potential of these digital assets , investors are choosing to take their cryptocurrencies out of trading halls and put them into a deep freeze. (Bitcoinist)

Bitfinex: Euro rate cut is good for BTC

On June 7, Bitfinex analysts said that BTC may fall below the $70,000 mark (realized) this week due to a decline in investor interest in risky assets. However, the previous euro rate cut may increase Bitcoins liquidity, as the rate cut may weaken the euro, which may lead to increased demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin . The increase in liquidity brought about by monetary easing policies may also support risky assets including cryptocurrencies. (Cointelgraph)

Bitfinex: BTC will rise to over $120,000 in this cycle

Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predict that the current Bitcoin bull cycle may peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. Analysts said that historical data shows that Bitcoin usually reaches an all-time high (ATH) a few months after the halving event, so the predicted market top may occur around the fourth quarter of 2024 .

Bitfinex analysts predict that in the current cycle, based on on-chain indicators and historical patterns, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak of at least $120,000 in this cycle. (TheBlock)

QCP Capital: BTC will continue to rise

Analysts at crypto asset trading firm QCP Capital said that the U.S. unemployment claims report released today and the CPI released next week could be catalysts for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high. In addition, with the possibility of a potential interest rate cut, Bitcoin may rise further. Analysts also expect ETH to continue to lag in the short term, noting that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said in an interview with CNBC yesterday that the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF S-1 will take some time. (Theblock)

Neutral: The possibility of sideways trading cannot be ruled out

ETF inflows are not a bullish bet

Despite record inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, the spot price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in a narrow range. ETF inflows appear to be part of non-directional cash and carry strategies and do not necessarily represent outright bullish bets. Anonymous market observer CMS Holdings said : The entity buys ETFs and sells CME futures to reduce the basis in some major markets, which allows the entity to realize a net profit, which is why ETF inflows are high but spot is relatively unchanged . This strategy is often called cash carry and aims to profit from the premium of the futures market relative to the spot market. (Coindesk)

Bitcoin backtest data in the third quarter showed mediocre performance

According to Ali, an on-chain analyst, who wrote on the X platform , historically, Bitcoin has generally performed poorly in the third quarter , with an average return of only 6.49% and a median return of -2.57%.

BTC has strong support at $67,350

According to on-chain analyst Ali, who wrote on the X platform , Bitcoin is anchored in a strong support area between $67,350 and $69,380 , where 1.97 million addresses hold 964,000 Bitcoins. Maintaining this level is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain its upward momentum.

Bearish: The market is still not optimistic

Cryptoquant: ETH will continue to fall in the short term

Cryptoquant analyst ShayanBTC сказал that Ethereum prices may continue to fall in the short term unless market conditions improve. The current Ethereum price is difficult to break through $4,000, and the buy-sell ratio (7-day moving average) in the futures market shows that sellers are dominant. The ratio has recently failed to rise above 1 and has fallen sharply, indicating that most futures traders are selling Ethereum for speculative purposes or to realize profits. He said that this trend is a bearish signal, and if this trend continues, the current downward retracement may continue .

QCP Capital: Buy on dips

QCP Capital said in a market analysis on June 8 that the unexpectedly better-than-expected non-farm data and the rise in the unemployment rate were enough to trigger risk aversion ahead of the release of US inflation data and the FOMC next Wednesday.

Additionally, the Roaring Kitty livestream attracted nearly a million viewers, during which GME stock plummeted. It鈥檚 probably no coincidence that altcoins and meme coins fell in tandem, losing more than $40 billion in market value.

There was bullish money flow during this decline, including aggressive put option sellers and call spread buyers, especially for BTC.

QCP Capital believes that this decline is a good opportunity to buy on the dip, as the market will increasingly price in the impact of at least one rate cut from the Federal Reserve from now on. As other countries around the world continue to cut interest rates, it will be difficult for the United States to ignore this.

This article is sourced from the internet: With big fluctuations imminent, how do institutions view the market outlook?

Related: 10x Research: When will Bitcoin break a new high? Look at this key indicator

Original source: 10x Research Compiled by: Odaily Planet Daily Wenser Editors note: After the breakthrough of Ethereum spot ETF, the market has entered the bull market sentiment cycle again. While the amount of funds for Bitcoin spot ETF continues to grow, when Bitcoin price can break through the previous high in March has become the focus of many people again. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize and compile the key indicators of Bitcoin price breaking through the new high shared by 10x Research in this article for readers reference. (Note: This article is only a sharing of 10x Researchs views and does not constitute investment advice.) Key indicators for Bitcoin price growth For most people, the rise and fall of Bitcoin prices seem to be random fluctuations and unpredictable, but we…