EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation: BTC rebounds strongly amid optimistic expectations of US interest rate cuts

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Market summary:

Last week, BTC price recorded the biggest rebound in the past 10 weeks, with a low of $60,738 and a close at $66,261, an increase of 7.82% and an amplitude of 11.33%.

The biggest rebound came on May 15. Unsurprisingly, the impetus was the unexpectedly positive data of interest rate cuts in the United States: the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the same day showed that the U.S. CPI in April and the core CPI excluding food and energy were both lower than expected on a month-on-month basis. This shows that the rebound in U.S. inflation seems to be coming to an end. The rising rate of bad debts of U.S. credit cards also seems to be a precursor to economic recession.

If the data on June 12 is still lower than expected, the upward trend of BTC may continue. After more than two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has been relatively fully traded in the range of $60,000-70,000, and the cost of short-term investors has continued to rise to $60,000. Various signs show that long-term investors have stopped selling and instead reabsorbed chips during this period of consolidation.

Another optimistic data comes from the US ETF. After more than 4 months of operation, with the help of the disclosure of 13 F (management scale of more than 100 million US dollars) of US asset management institutions, we can finally see the real progress of US institutions in investing in BTC.

The most notable giant is Morgan Stanley, which disclosed that it invested $269.9 million in the spot BTC ETF through Grayscales GBTC. Behind it, as of May 15, 700 institutions held about $5 billion in ETF shares, accounting for only about 10% of the ETFs $50 billion.

The number of institutions that have entered is surprising, accounting for about 10% of the total number of 13 F institutions, but the holdings account for only about one ten-thousandth of the total scale managed by 13 F institutions. On average, each institution holds only $7 million in BTC ETF. However, this seems to indicate that it is still just a small attempt by a small number of institutions, and there is still a huge space for the future.

Supply and demand structure:

During the 10-week consolidation period, the most optimistic data we saw was active turnover. The cost of short-term investors further increased from $58,000 to $60,000. At the same time, the $60,000-73,000 range became the largest BTC chip accumulation range, with a total of about 3 million pieces. At the same time, $66,000 also became the single largest chip accumulation area in all price ranges, reaching 546,000 pieces.

U.S. ETFs finally saw net inflows of $946 million last week, the largest inflow recorded in the past two months.

Last week, stablecoins saw inflows of $823 million, reversing the first net outflow of $460 million seen the previous week.

As of May 19, the number of coins held by centralized exchanges was 2.3 million, 33,000 less than last week, which is also the largest net outflow in the past two weeks. This is consistent with our judgment that chips continue to accumulate. The purchase volume of exchanges was US$6.4 billion, a 20% increase compared to the previous week.

Overall, the market tends to believe that the possibility of a US dollar rate cut in September is increasing. Due to the strong negative correlation between BTC and the US dollar index, in the short term, it is difficult for us to get rid of the rhythm of relying on the US dollar God for food. In the long run, the US dollar and all central currencies will inevitably enter the track of over-issuance, which is a historical law. Therefore, long-term investors in BTC can be fearless of short-term weather changes.

EMC BTC Cycle indicator:

Since indicators such as BTC new addresses, vitality indicators, and exchange liquidity have not yet recovered, the EMC BTC Cycle engine shows that our bull market acceleration period still remains at a low level of 0.37.

This article is sourced from the internet: EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation: BTC rebounds strongly amid optimistic expectations of US interest rate cuts

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