Matrixport Market Observation: BTC’s binding with macro data deepens, and Trump’s tariff policy hits the market hard

In the past week, the price of 암호화폐 assets was significantly affected by information. On February 28, BTC hit a low of $78,258, and market sentiment fell into extreme fear. As the Trump administration proposed to include 5 tokens in the new strategic reserve, the price of BTC rebounded quickly and broke through the long-term resistance level, reaching a high of $95,000, and temporarily stabilized around the resistance level of $92,000 to $93,000.

Trumps tariff policy was announced on March 3rd, Eastern Time. The prices of crypto assets, led by BTC, fell and went on a roller coaster ride. Currently, the price of BTC fluctuates around $83,000, with the maximum price fluctuation exceeding 10% within 24 hours. The maximum price fluctuation of ETH within 24 hours exceeded 15%, with the lowest price reaching $2,002 (the above data comes from Binance spot, real-time data at 16:00 on March 4).

Although the current market narrative is relatively favorable for crypto assets, the current macro data and market sentiment have a significant impact on the price trend of crypto assets. At a time when risk aversion is obvious, investors are advised to pay close attention to basic information such as US Treasury bonds and wait for macro signals.

시장 분석

Trumps team controls the crypto market, which is volatile

On March 2, Trump posted on social media that the United States will create a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, which will include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA. Influenced by the news, the cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply, with ADA soaring by more than 60%. Although BTCs market dominance has declined, BTC still rose by more than 10%.

From Trumps election to his successful inauguration, the crypto market has always been an important bargaining chip for Trump. Based on previous events, Trumps team has gradually become proficient in influencing the crypto market with news, whether it is timing or technical control. The first cryptocurrency summit held at the White House on March 7 also attracted much attention. How will Trump make a move to ensure that the United States becomes the worlds cryptocurrency capital?

BTC ETF net outflow hits record high in February, and market performance in March is not expected to be good

Recently, BTC ETF has experienced net outflows for 8 consecutive days, with a net outflow of about $2.4 billion in the past week. Coinglass data shows that February was the month with the heaviest outflow in the history of BTC ETF. The market is obviously risk-averse, and with the departure of arbitrage funds, the performance of BTC ETF in March may not be optimistic. Data shows that the total net outflow of BTC spot ETF on March 3 was $74.19 million.

The ETH market is also under severe pressure. In February, the ETH lending market experienced the worst liquidation event in 12 months, with nearly $500 million in collateral liquidated, mostly on Aave and Compound platforms. The surge in liquidations coincided with the decline of the entire market, causing a sharp drop in the total market value of cryptocurrencies and triggering a large number of forced liquidations. This is the second-highest monthly liquidation amount in DeFi history, second only to the liquidation amount during the market crash in May 2021.

U.S. crypto regulation ushered in a new era, with a large number of institutions recently reaching a settlement with the SEC

The SEC recently dropped investigations into companies such as Robinhood, Gemini, UniSwap Labs, MetaMask, and OpenSea, and reached settlements with Coinbase and Kraken. Compared to the Biden administration, the SEC has made a major shift in cryptocurrency regulation.

The SEC’s announcement on Monday said the cryptocurrency working group will hold its first roundtable meeting at its Washington, D.C., headquarters on March 21. The theme is “How We Got Here and Where to Go — Defining Securities Status.” This will be part of a series of meetings called the “Spring Sprint Toward Clarity in Cryptocurrencies.”

Macro Data Sharing

Trumps tariff policy is finalized, and the US stock market is in a turmoil

On March 3, US President Trump said that reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on April 2, and the US policy of imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4. Trump said there is no room for consensus on tariffs on Mexico and Canada. In addition, Trump also said that he would consider reaching a free trade agreement with Argentina.

Under the heavy pressure of Trumps tariff policy, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell in late trading, with the SP 500 index recording its biggest drop of the year and the Nasdaq erasing its gains since last years election. Market panic increased sharply, and technology and chip stocks came under pressure. Nvidia fell nearly 9%, Broadcom fell more than 6%, and Amazon fell more than 3%. Safe-haven asset gold re-entered $2,900. The market is paying close attention to the European Central Bank meeting and the non-farm payrolls report.

The weak economic growth data in the United States is obvious, and the market is in urgent need of solutions

Consumer credit and housing market data continued to decline sharply, new home sales hit a record low, and new home starts also began to decline after the post-epidemic boom, intensifying market panic about weak economic growth.

Most US economic surprises have now turned negative, driven by weakness in exports (-$250 billion from -$29 billion) and consumer spending (+1.3% from +2.2%). The Atlanta Feds first quarter GDP growth forecast dropped by a record amount last week, from +2.2% to -1.3%.

Bond markets mixed, yen bonds hit new highs

On March 4, Jinshi data showed that the yield on Japans 30-year government bonds rose to 2.37%, the highest level since October 2008. Bloomberg data showed that the yield on the US dollar bond market fell significantly in the past week.

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Related: Protecting Gains: Using the Put Ladder Strategy to Tackle Bitcoin Volatility

Happy New Year, and welcome back to our weekly options analysis series. As we continue to monitor market dynamics, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $100,000 mark and is under pressure from multiple macroeconomic factors. Notably, President Trump’s recent announcement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico has heightened market uncertainty. While the implementation of the tariffs has been delayed by a month, there is still a chance that they will take effect in the future, further weighing on Bitcoin prices. Meanwhile, our Arthur Hayes is bearish on Bitcoin, arguing that various macro risks and policy uncertainties will weaken market sentiment and could push BTC lower. Based on these considerations, this article will discuss how to deal with this volatility through options. In this article, we’ll walk you through an options…