The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August were both released this week. The PPI report showed that wholesale prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, slightly higher than economists expectations, while the year-on-year increase of 1.7% was in line with expectations. The CPI data was released below market expectations.
A 25 basis point rate cut has become a high probability and has increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
After the data was released, the prices of financial assets showed an upward trend. The leading crypto assets, led by BTC, also entered a stage of stopping the decline and rising on the 12th, although the current profit-taking is still happening. The disclosure of the Federal Reserves interest rate decision meeting next week is crucial. The first interest rate cut after a high interest rate usually brings a shock to the market. It is not ruled out that the volatility of the crypto market will increase significantly next week, but based on the upcoming election, some of the fluctuations may be offset.
If the Fed enters an orderly rate cut cycle, it will be beneficial to risky assets. Rate cuts will lead to an increase in global money supply, and the increase in market purchasing power will lead to currency depreciation. It will further increase investors risk appetite and seek asset appreciation.
The presidential debate is over, but it is still hard to say who will be the US president
The market is still in the process of reacting to the latest presidential debate between Harris and Trump, with mixed opinions on the two candidates.
Trump, who used crypto assets as one of his campaign tactics, has not updated on how to improve the lives of the American people. Voters expect him to come up with a refreshing new narrative. The choice of JD Vance as the vice presidential candidate shows that Trumps campaign focus is still on the Rust Belt. However, his policies have not changed much, and the core is still to impose double tariffs on Chinese imports.
Harris has not made any specific statements on policies directly involving BTC or crypto assets, so any impact is possible. The Democratic Party takes a more cautious approach to crypto assets, focusing on regulation, consumer protection, anti-money laundering compliance, and combating bribery and market manipulation. Harriss ruling team may prioritize tightening regulatory policies on crypto asset trading platforms, stablecoins, and DeFi platforms.
The four-year term of the US president happens to be a complete BTC cycle. In the next four years under the leadership of the new president, BTC is destined to experience many unexpected events and significant price fluctuations.
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This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Investment Research: The Federal Reserve may enter an orderly rate cut cycle, which is beneficial to risky assets
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